Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@JanFebAnyMonth

Every time I discuss anything to do with Covid with anyone who’s not so hyper-interested, or, to be fair, as educated, as me, I’m struck by this sort of issue.

But then I always think “Why should they know/understand? It’s not obvious stuff and the government messaging has been pretty poor, if not misleading in some cases!”

Specifically re vaccines, most people’s understanding of them relates to the childhood ones, and it’s basic - you have this injection and it stops you getting a deadly disease.

I agree with your points on this.

Specifically regarding government (and media!) messaging. Most people consume what they know in small bite-size chunks or sound bites and rarely look in to the nuance or detail of things. But not everyone is able to do this and would prefer to get their truths from the people around them.

Is it any wonder people don't understand with the poor messaging from the government. They don't know what they are doing so no one else does either and the trust is gone.

Did anyone see this article?

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-plan-uk-government-sars-coronavirus-b1893728.html

What a shambles.

Blimey, that last thread filled up fast!

Blimey, that last thread filled up fast!

You only made that comment so it appeared in your commented list...

@sirfredfredgeorge

Blimey, that last thread filled up fast!

You only made that comment so it appeared in your commented list...

So did you

And so am I.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/excessdeathsinyourneighbourhoodduringthecoronaviruscovid19pandemic/2021-08-03

ONS published excess deaths down to MSOA level earlier in the week with a detailed data file underpinning this, and a number of graphs and the trusty interactive map within the link above.

The data is shown both by month and also splits excess deaths between March and July 2020; and then between Sep 2020 and March 2021.

The two tables show the 20 MSOA with the highest excess death rates in the first period; and then those in the second period.

As can be seen a handful fared really badly across the pandemic (in the top 20 for both periods); whilst some in the worst 20 between March and July 2021 were then in the best 20% in the Sept 2020 to March 2021 period.

There is a scattering across the county although a significant number of London MSOAs appear.

Then in the next post are the tables showing the 20 MSOAs with the lowest levels of excess deaths in each period.

the second set of tables showing the 20 MSOAs in each of the periods with the lowest levels of excess deaths. The three yellow highlighted though in the 20 with the lowest level of excess deaths between March and July 2021 were then in the 10% of MSOAs with the highest levels in the second period.

.

Hello thanks for these threads! I’ve been paying attention to this one as we are in a hotspot for the first time.

Have any of you looked these stats on young people in hospital (the 1 in 5 reported yesterday) and weighed it up against the previous waves?

Because arguably (I think??) previously it was impacting more the health sector and older people and staff, well at least in our area…and now it is more dispersed through the community, that is other groups are now exposed more than before? I am supposing?

I guess what I am asking is, is it as much to do with a change in the rate of infections across the age groups as it is about younger people not yet being vaccinated.

Has the pattern of infection by age changed in this wave and therefore is giving an impression of being more risky for younger groups.

Yesterday a children’s hospital dr on BBC News channel said children are just as at risk as adults and as a mum I would like to understand this.

Thanks!!!

1 in 75 England ONS confirming decrease in cases.

Decreasing in Wales & Scotland but increasing in NI , unfortunately.

age2 - yr6 1.8%

yr 7 -11 3.4%

yr12 - age24 2.5%

Have any of you looked these stats on young people in hospital (the 1 in 5 reported yesterday) and weighed it up against the previous waves?

Yes, and statistically, and in isolation that is relevant. However, it has to be balanced out by the fact that very few over 50's are now in hospital compared to the first wave, because they are all vaccinated, so of course the age profile has shifted down the age range.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1009243/Technical_Briefing_20.pdf

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1009009/6_August_2021_Risk_assessment_for_SARS-CoV-2_variant_VUI_21JUL-01.pdf

Interesting new data on B.1.621 (a VUI)
Very low numbers but I note of a total of 32 cases since February, 19 have been in last 28 days.
Very interesting set of mutations.

From report (very little evidence available so far)
“ Experimental evidence of evasion of naturally acquired immunity
This variant contains mutations associated with antigenic change, including E484K. The clade more prevalent in the UK also has K417N, so the mutation profile has similarities with Beta. There is evidence of reduction in neutralisation with convalescent sera from individuals with previous Delta infections in the UK.

Vaccine-derived immunity
Experimental evidence of evasion of vaccine derived immunity
There are no real-world data on vaccine effectiveness. Pseudovirus data from the UK indicates a reduction in neutralisation by vaccinee sera, which is at least as great as that seen with Beta. It is noted that there were high neutralising titres in a small number of sera tested from individuals who were fully vaccinated and had recent Delta infection.”

So perhaps one to watch.

@BigWoollyJumpers

Have any of you looked these stats on young people in hospital (the 1 in 5 reported yesterday) and weighed it up against the previous waves?

Yes, and statistically, and in isolation that is relevant. However, it has to be balanced out by the fact that very few over 50's are now in hospital compared to the first wave, because they are all vaccinated, so of course the age profile has shifted down the age range.

However, if case rates were to increase again, as they well may, then presumably the numbers of young people in hospital will tend to increase proportionately.

It would be great if the extension of the vaccination programme could ward that off.

I think in the last wave it was 5% as opposed to 20% now. But it was 5% of a peak of 39000 (so 1900) as opposed to 20% of 5000 (so 1000). Or roughly something similar.

So it is really about the older ages being vaccinated means less of them in so the ratio of younger patients rises. I think this is also why we are going to see a shift to over 12s being vaccinated

But, in the previous waves we got to 1 in 75 or so, however this was spread across all age groups, now we're at 1 in 75 or so and it's much more heavily biased to the under 30's, so under 30 absolute numbers should be higher because the number of infected under 30's is much much higher than at Christmas?

Great news from ONS!

I think I have read that the probability of new variants resisting vaccines is to do with ‘antigenic sin’ - could anyone explain what this means please?

@JanFebAnyMonth

Great news from ONS!

I think I have read that the probability of new variants resisting vaccines is to do with ‘antigenic sin’ - could anyone explain what this means please?

Isn’t it just how well your immune system recognises the altered antigenic traits of the new variant? If your prior exposure was to a different variant.

I’m not sure it has anything to do with how likely vaccines are going to combat future variants, isn’t that more to do with antigenic drift?

I might have got it wrong, yes. Thanks

@Quartz2208

Thanks for this information, did you also note a change to the ratio of hospitalisations to infections (by age group) in this wave (and Delta) compared to previous waves and variant? That is to say is there any suggestion that hospitalisations are increasing for younger people proportionately at this time (who are not vaccinated or not fully) and this variant.

I don’t know if I’m using the right terms; data and numbers…not a comfortable area for me!

Does anyone know what percentage of people they think have actually had covid? I remember reading in Jan that it was 1 in 5. Presumay they think more now?

Im just wondering if a lot more people have had covid and not been aware of it.

Today's spec date summary for England graphic. Possibly seeing the start of a slight uptick or perhaps more likely a period of undulation, gentle rolling hills rather than mountainous precipices.

Thanks, boys3. Look like it is a small uptick but an uptick nevertheless.

This is great considering the recent predictions of many

England's estimated R number has fallen to between 0.8 and 1.1, suggesting the pandemic could be shrinking.
Last week, it was between 1.1 and 1.4.

I see R has decreased from 1.1-1.4 to 0.8-1.1 in England.

That seems a big change, is it just v hard to work out at the moment?