Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@Piggywaspushed

Thanks everyone. Feeling considerably better today. Fingers crossed.

One nurse in hospital yesterday said they really need to start rolling out boosters of AZ and get young people vacced : she wasn't hiding her views. I was too ill to probe her for info for the data thread!

and good wishes for speedy recovery in the Piggy household.

Curious the nurse mentioned only AZ boosters. I would have thought it would be the recipients of Pfizer first given in December who were on 3 week intervals that would be booster priority group. Unless there's a plan to give that group AZ in the same way it's been suggested that the ones who got AZ may get a booster shot of Pfizer?

@Piggywaspushed
If you don't mind me asking, what symptoms made you go to the hospital?

I was continually throwing up so became terribly dehydrated, disorientated,and shaky. Fair play, they checked absolutely everything over.

She did specifically mention AZ. It may just be that that's the local vaccine. We only just got Pfizer here.

Thanks piggy!
Get well quickly (all of you)

She did specifically mention AZ

My understanding is that those who had AZ will be offered a Pfizer booster, as it seems to offer more protection than AZ, especially against the Delta strain.

That said, I work as a vaccinator and we've not yet been given any info as to when these boosters will start to be given.

CEO of AZ seems to think boosters might not be needed for those who've had both jabs. "The science so far suggests that our vaccine provides a strong T-cell response which I hope means its effects will last longer.” Data due in the autumn.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/08/06/astrazeneca-vaccine-may-protect-against-covid-longer-eliminate/amp/

today's spec date graphic for England, slight upward drift overall. Cases by age on the dashboard still have the five day lag, however I'll have a look at that later. The one yesterday showed the clearest upward drift in the 15-29 age group; hardly surprising.

Am I right in thinking there are early signs of deaths now falling!? I've just looked at the Google deaths graph and it seemed to have peaked last week? Is this more evidence of England's vaccine wall??

So far the age heatmap pattern looks positive for vaccines, with falling rates at higher ages. (Yellow/Green good, Blue worse, Purple/ Black bad). Even at the oldest over-90s any immunity waning doesn't yet seem to be feeding through.

Test positivity looks to be keeping pace quite neatly with positive test numbers; peaked and dropped, currently stalled/ very slightly up.

@MRex
That's appr. mid-july state, right? About 3 weeks lag.

It's 3rd August that the positivity chart runs to

today's England spec date graphic, plus recent daily cases by spec date+7 day moving average graphic. Gentle upward drift.

Thanks, boys3. I keep hoping to see the reversal in the trend. Let us see if better weather makes a difference.

again just for England daily deaths (based on date of occurrence not reporting and 7 day average). More of a reporting lag here, very slight upward trend still, but, and again without wishing to diminish the impact of those for whom these numbers mean the loss of a loved one, the numbers remain relatively low, staying under three figures in terms of any daily figure, and some way below for the seven day average.

numbers in hospital and daily admissions. The former slight downward movement; the latter largely plateaued over the past few days (noting numbers for admissions up to 8th Aug). Again just England.

The black columns on this and previous graphs just there to highlight each Monday, nothing more sinister.

@wintertravel1980 A level results out today, lots of mainly celebrations around us, but nightclubs appear to be celebratory / commiseratory destination of choice for most later this evening. Just a sub-section of the 15-19 group, but could cause a slight - I don't think it will be much more than that - bump a few days hence.

Yes, a very fair point, boys3.

age band movement within England for the last couple of weeks.

This first table is simply formatted as one to show the age bands with the higher rates.

Deeper red shades back on 22nd July spanned 10-14s to 30-34s; with the 15-19s and 20-24s the primary two groups.

By 5th Aug deeper shades concentrated in the 15-19s and 20-24s; although both at lower rates as compared with 7 days to 22nd July.

Impact of schools closing for the summer - well 10-14s steady downward trajectory.

identical table in terms of data but with each age band individually formatted to show more clearly how individual age bands how moved since 22nd July.

Impact of schools closing for the summer - well 10-14s steady downward trajectory

There's a question if this is lower testing (due to lower likelihood of symptoms / compliance) or are cases actually lower, in which case there will be a strong rebound in September assuming the number of potential cases are similar to the 15-24 year olds.

how moved???? Have moved

Bit worrying to see reddening on the oldest age groups recently?

fair point sirfed. Obviously the tables only reflect published case numbers with the constraints that this entails as you highlight.