Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

created now in case no pun intended of the usual frenzied Friday early posting.

Still a bit of space on the current thread www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4304520-Data-Stats-Daily-Numbers-started-23rd-JULY?watched=1&msgid=109673164#109673164 so please fill that one up first before getting stuck into this one.

Thanks boys.

I haven't looked this up for a while, and missed that it had been updated late July:

www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

Nice to see we are now way down the list. However, notwithstanding that, interesting to see that we, along with Belgium, France, Switzerland, Sweden, Germany, Greece, Canada, all now have less excess deaths, than Covid attributed deaths.

Thanks boys. This gives a useful overview of excess mortality. Peru and Equador are shocking.

Following on from the end of the previous thread. Looking just at England, and comparing Monday- Wednesday as reported so far for this week with the same point last week, case wise only, and where region / council geography has been confirmed: 54772 this week vs 54090 last week.

Exeter one of the areas where cases had been increasing 264 cases at the same point both this week and last week.

Lincoln 209 this week vs 245 last week

BCP 634 vs 649 last week

Although not in the higher case area Cornwall jumped to 615 from 464

Kirklees 514 from 389

Leeds 1016 from 932

Middlesbrough rapid fall seem to be continuing 192 vs 271 last week

Peterborough bit of a jump to 288 from 193

York 282 vs 197

As this was at the very end of the last thread; re-posted for reference

Placemarking for the excellent info ...

as referenced at the end of the last thread graphic for daily cases and seven day average for cases in England; admissions; in hospital and deaths graphics to follow. Column in black simply indicates a Monday.

again for England daily and 7 day average for hospital admissions

then numbers in hospital (again just England)

and finally deaths within 28 days (by date of occurrence, cut off therefore could be taken a few days earlier again).

82 deaths recorded as occurring on 30th July; remains therefore to be seen if they days following that match or exceed it. Every death will have a grieving family so whilst I do wish to in anyway trivialise this still having not reached three digits is I think a positive.

beautifully done and very tactful

Thanks boys. Signing in still in high dudgeon. Please excuse any ranting and sulking.

Thanks boys3.

"do not wish to in anyway trivialise...." that should have read above, plus a the somehow became a they.

we knew what you meant

it all looks positive - cases peaking on the 15th, hospitialisations around the 22nd and hopefully deaths on the 30th. Which I guess would make sense?

Are we expecting a plateau a bit now though or a more gradual fall?

boys3 chart of cases by date of specimen actually shows a small increase which makes sense - local authorities not yet hit by the latest wave are, unfortunately, catching up on cases.

If Bolton, Blackburn, Redcar or South Tyneside start going up, this might be a reason for concern. However, for now, it looks like many of the early hotspots might be reaching an "endemic equilibrium":

theconversation.com/why-covid-cases-are-now-falling-in-the-uk-and-what-could-happen-next-165123

Thanks for the great graphs @boys3. It's reassuring to see the stabilisation. @Quartz2208 - I personally expect a wobbly line down with occasional increases or steep drops, because little outbreaks can and will pop up anywhere.

May I please check in

@boys3

As this was at the very end of the last thread; re-posted for reference

Love this graph

Thank you @boys3 . Did anyone else hear the Jeremy vine show earlier? It was really interesting, although the virologist made simple and valid points I was a bit astonished by some of the callers. There really is a very strong lack of understanding that the vaccine does not prevent illness, with callers refusing the vaccine on that basis e.g my uncle Barry had two doses and they still got it.

Thanks boys

Anyone got thoughts about this article? 40% of US wild deer have covid antibodies, 3 had it in Jan 2020. Are they catching it from humans / cats / dogs / bats? Is Jan 2020 credible, that's a fast transfer when relatively few US humans had it (though New York being hit so early it was likely to be there from Nov/ Dec)?
api.nationalgeographic.com/distribution/public/amp/animals/article/wild-us-deer-found-with-coronavirus-antibodies

Every time I discuss anything to do with Covid with anyone who’s not so hyper-interested, or, to be fair, as educated, as me, I’m struck by this sort of issue.

But then I always think “Why should they know/understand? It’s not obvious stuff and the government messaging has been pretty poor, if not misleading in some cases!”

Specifically re vaccines, most people’s understanding of them relates to the childhood ones, and it’s basic - you have this injection and it stops you getting a deadly disease.