Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Waltham Forest then South East UTLAs Bracknell Forest to Slough

Southampton to Wokingham then South West UTLAs Bath & NE Somerset to Dorset

North Somerset to Wiltshire

West Midlands UTLAs Birmingham to Telford

Walsall and Wolverhampton then Yorks and Humber UTLAs Barnsley to Kirklees

Leeds to York

Having a look at areas with rising infections, quite a few are paler in colour on the vaccination map (used first dose as it's easier to see lagging borough) e.g. Newham, Leicester, Luton, Peterborough, Sheffield, N Lincs, Kingston upon Hull, Blackpool. (Bedford doesn't quite fit, possibly the population isn't correct?) Areas that "should" have higher infections based on lower vaccination may be most at risk for next increases if this pattern holds e.g. Camden, Kensington, Salford, Manchester, Liverpool, Nottingham. (I don't trust the population stats in Westminster, Hammersmith, Oxford or Cambridge, and suspect their vaccination stats may be artificially low.)

As you know, I am in one of those areas. It does feel like everyone here has it ! Three households just in my little close...

Yes, my friend lives near you and also has several contacts with covid right now. I know Bedford started vaccinations a bit late in January, and had a massive vaccine push back in June that will not quite have kicked in. Still, cases are a little higher than comparative areas, whereas I can pick multiple places like Liverpool that are getting away with lower cases.
Are you feeling any better yet?

I feel imported to the extent I actually slept last night . Pulse rate has been coming down , which was the main concern. DS2 actually has the worst cough.

One thing I have noticed is that everyone , in hindsight , had several days of feeling generally ropy (sniffy in the boys' cases; nausea in mine) before any official testable symptoms kicked in. So lots of people are probably not getting tested very early on, hence the spread? LFTs weren't the answer with me. Both DS2 and I tested negative on LFDs, in my case 3 times.

Improved, not imported!

That's interesting, it certainly won't help. The question that case rises or falls will help to answer is how infectious people are in that stage. I'm glad you at least for some sleep.

Just delurking to give best wishes to @Piggywaspushed and her family. Hope you feel better soon. Sleep sounds positive. ❤️

Thanks lemon.

Sorry if it’s been asked recently.

But is the dashboard going to update to reflect adults as 16+?

Or have they never added under 18 vaccinations to the grand total (that they love to tweet about)?

@Itsprobablynotcominghome NI’s dashboard was updated yesterday to show that approx 16.5% of 16-17 yr olds have had the vaccine (since tail end of last week). So hopefully the other nations will also include it soon
covid-19.hscni.net/ni-covid-19-vaccinations-dashboard/

They’re keeping them as a separate category though, I guess so it doesn’t drag too much on the overall figure 😂

@MRex

Having a look at areas with rising infections, quite a few are paler in colour on the vaccination map (used first dose as it's easier to see lagging borough) e.g. Newham, Leicester, Luton, Peterborough, Sheffield, N Lincs, Kingston upon Hull, Blackpool. (Bedford doesn't quite fit, possibly the population isn't correct?) Areas that "should" have higher infections based on lower vaccination may be most at risk for next increases if this pattern holds e.g. Camden, Kensington, Salford, Manchester, Liverpool, Nottingham. (I don't trust the population stats in Westminster, Hammersmith, Oxford or Cambridge, and suspect their vaccination stats may be artificially low.)

Cambridge City Council are doing all these vaccination drives, wondering why there are 60,000 not turning up. We are vaccinating first doses at a rate of 0.1% per day, roughly.

They would be better to do a mini-census and find out how many people actual living in this town. But then they’d probably find hundreds of empty properties, and we wouldn’t want to solve the housing crisis inadvertently now would we.

@lurker101

They’re keeping them as a separate category though, I guess so it doesn’t drag too much on the overall figure 😂

Yes. I have no faith that the 75% double vaccinated adults figure is anywhere near accurate anyway.

If they don’t update this % yet we see a massive increase in first doses, then it’s all bollucks isn’t it?

@Itsprobablynotcominghome

Sorry if it’s been asked recently.

But is the dashboard going to update to reflect adults as 16+?

Or have they never added under 18 vaccinations to the grand total (that they love to tweet about)?

The vaccination board says it only uses 18+, so presumably they'll be a separate category. There can't realistically be more than 200,000 and probably more like 100,000 in that age group vaccinated, so it wouldn't make a difference to the adult percentage whether included or not. Adding the population with none of them being vaccinated would drop stats by 2-3%. I don't think that's the drop you hoped for.

@Reastie

I still don’t get the case numbers being lower than many predicted. I’m not complaining(!), but given we’re being told double vaccinated isn’t as good as we thought at stopping spread and getting it (but it is great at reducing serious illness), and we’re now doing far more than we’ve been permitted to throughout the pandemic, how are cases increasing so slowly? I just can’t quite add it all up. The only thing I can think is people aren’t bothering to test, but surely that’ll lead to a big leap soon enough as it spreads from these people. I’m not looking for doom and gloom, I’m genuinely trying to understand. The govt seems happy to let it spread through the summer, and mitigations are pretty non exist except self isolation (I heard it mentioned today on the radio a star about a large % of pinged people were ignoring the ping and many have deleted the app anyway) so how are we only at the level we are?!

I think people aren't testing as much. They don't want to isolate or ruin holiday plans.
Our Y12 was closed near the end of term due to case numbers and everyone told to isolate. Many of the teens found out they had Covid, but without symptoms, due to continuing to use LFTs at that time. Ds had a sore throat (thought it was his usual tonsillitis) - he kept testing negative for 4 days until finally got a positive result.

A friend has developed thyroid problems after contracting Covid. I was trying to find out more and found this, which I thought interesting and worth linking. Don’t think it’s been posted before, apologies if it has

LitCovid is a curated literature hub for tracking up-to-date scientific information about the 2019 novel Coronavirus

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/research/coronavirus/

@BerylBreville and @Reastie - the positivity percentage would increase if that was the case, not decrease, so it cannot be testing. The UK had huge drops last summer without any vaccination, covid has weather preference and the increases only started as the new variant came back from Spain. There are also a majority of people who have immunity from vaccination; that might not hold up to a high viral load or it might be down to individual immune systems, but any levels of immunity will help to suppress spread.

I’m not hoping for a drop. I’m wanting to see as accurate data as possible. It helps no one overestimating.

Total 18+ population based off the vaccination % is: 52.9m.
Think I read there are 1.5m 16 and 17 year olds. So new total is 53.4m. Let’s say 200,000 have already been vaccinated, that’s now 47.29m. So 47.29/53.4m = 88.5%.

To reach 90% first dosed adults (16+), we would need to reach 48.06m. Albeit, I don’t know when they round up ( this is for 90% exactly, they’d probably round at 89.6%, which would be 47.84m).

So at current first dose rates (30,000/day) we’d hit 89.6% in 18 days. And 90% exactly in 26 days. Unless there is a serious uptick in first doses, which there could be I guess.

Omg my maths immediately failed me. I’m at home waiting for a covid test result. Is a symptom not being able to do basic addition? 54.4 not 53.4%.

87% not 88.5%*
90% 16+ = 48.87m*
89.6% = 48.65m*

So 52 days and 45 days respectively to reach those at 30,000/day.

That sounds more reasonable.

Thus,