Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Just food for thought. Here is a chart from ourworldindata selection: Europe + Asia

Maybe we should be thinking of looking at Asia in general on what mitigation measures can be done. Not at other European countries (who also f*ed up to some extent)
Some countries are quite similar (japan), whilst others are vastly different in terms of population, space, economy, housing, etc...
But overall - they have done a much better job.

Or compare the 2 islands only: japan vs UK.

It can’t be, no - I missed that, sorry! Elsewhere it says over 1,272 children have died, and that half a million have tested positive - so that’s 0.00000002%. Of course there’ll be more positives than have been tested, but that would make it an even smaller percentage. There could be more deaths than are recorded too, but not that many more!

Above post was re Indonesia article

@JanglyBeads

It can’t be, no - I missed that, sorry! Elsewhere it says over 1,272 children have died, and that half a million have tested positive - so that’s 0.00000002%. Of course there’ll be more positives than have been tested, but that would make it an even smaller percentage. There could be more deaths than are recorded too, but not that many more!

Try 0.254%.

Hoping for some accurate 'Data thread' information....

What is the ratio between positive tests and hospitalisation / death for children (age banded would be really useful), preferably for Delta though I appreciate that might not be available yet?

Few children have died during the pandemic in the UK, but infection in this group hasn't been hugely high either, because of lockdowns, self isolation etc. The recent SAGE paper on likely infection in schools started with a statement that roughly 20% had immunity by May, but that current levels of immunity were unknown (a range of scenarios were modelled in terms of predicting likely case rates).

Given that the current assumption appears to be that 'all children will now catch it, it can't be prevented', with guidance for schools etc being on this premise, I have been wondering what the very rough hospitalisation and death numbers we might expect as a result are?

Thanks @QueenStromba, I agree I had too many zeros (and ran out of space on my phone’s calculator!), but now make it 0.000254%?

Anyway, we can all agree the article’s 30% was clearly a mistake!

Jangly, 1/100 is 1%.

For the data you have given, rounding 1,272 as c. 1000 out of 500,000 is 1/500 which is 0.2% (1% divided by 5). So 0.254% looks in the right ballpark.

Re: Indonesia and other developing countries - poor nutrition and high level of deprivation will be contributing to the increase in severe outcomes.

Based on Zoe studies, nutrition seems to matter quite a bit and people with unhealthy (unbalanced) diets are more likely to suffer a more severe disease.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.24.21259283v1

@Perihelion

herecomesthesun what precautions does Germany have in place? They've fully vaccinated a lower percentage of their population than Scotland.They appear to be dropping implementing restrictions based on case rates. Have they brought in vaccine passports to enter places? What is their policy on SI of close contacts? Keeping society open and cases low seems impossible, especially in areas that have have had lower levels of infection up to now.

Well, I'm going on articles I've read in the British media (I'm not in Germany & have no local knowledge).

But they appear to have brought in medical grade masks in shops etc

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/germany-faces-another-winter-of-covid-facemasks-mcjx67gkq

and a load of other measures are planned at least

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/04/tight-restrictions-planned-for-unjabbed-germans-to-avert-new-covid-wave

There seems to have been a relaxing of measures in response to falling case numbers in the summer and then a move towards tightening up again as cases rose.

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/europe-pulling-ahead-britain-great-covid-race/

I must have misread this, I thought Germany was doing better with it's vaccinations, although it has offered vaccination to over 12s, like much of Europe.

I agree that Japan & South Korea etc seem to have used their experience of managing respiratory illnesses to good effect. They use masks when masks would be likely to have a beneficial effect of preventing illness and also as a courtesy to others and we could learn from that.

Re: Germany - it seems to follow the same case trajectory as the UK, albeit with a time lag.

@cantkeepawayforever

Jangly, 1/100 is 1%.

For the data you have given, rounding 1,272 as c. 1000 out of 500,000 is 1/500 which is 0.2% (1% divided by 5). So 0.254% looks in the right ballpark.

I think 30% should have read 0.3% (rounded up) then ?

@JanglyBeads

Thanks *@QueenStromba*, I agree I had too many zeros (and ran out of space on my phone’s calculator!), but now make it 0.000254%?

Anyway, we can all agree the article’s 30% was clearly a mistake!

1,272 / 500,000 = 0.00254 = 0.254%

1% is 1 in 100, which would be 5,000 out of 500,000. 1,272 is about 1/4 of that, hence 0.254%.

@cantkeepawayforever

Hoping for some accurate 'Data thread' information....

What is the ratio between positive tests and hospitalisation / death for children (age banded would be really useful), preferably for Delta though I appreciate that might not be available yet?

Few children have died during the pandemic in the UK, but infection in this group hasn't been hugely high either, because of lockdowns, self isolation etc. The recent SAGE paper on likely infection in schools started with a statement that roughly 20% had immunity by May, but that current levels of immunity were unknown (a range of scenarios were modelled in terms of predicting likely case rates).

Given that the current assumption appears to be that 'all children will now catch it, it can't be prevented', with guidance for schools etc being on this premise, I have been wondering what the very rough hospitalisation and death numbers we might expect as a result are?

1 in 121 according to this Twitter thread.

mobile.twitter.com/jneill/status/1429841681902342147

Are we saying it's either "Let's get herd immunity and stop all mitigations"

or

"let's call it endemic and stop all mitigations"

because there are effective measures and alternative ways of doing things that could make a difference in the "difficult winter ahead"

and I personally don't fancy another lockdown if we can avoid it

Picking up on the point made yesterday afternoon (I think) by winter on age seepage

These are for August so far, regional tables by age band, seven day rate per 100,000; then a handful of comparative graphs showing all regions for a single age band together.

As ever it is a patchwork picture.

On the regional tables how the darker colours are starting to fan out is the main interest.

Stating with London

the only region as far as I can see where the 15-19s are not the current highest age band rate. It is still the 2nd highest band in London, however the current rate is lower for example than:

40-44s in East Midlands, South West and Yorkshire and Humber
45-49s in South West

which makes me think regional tables may possibly be interesting but not that useful in comparative terms, aside from within a specific region. But as they are done........

Another lockdown seems inevitable since the government seems hellbent on following is tried and tested strategy of pretend it's all fine until the only way of stopping the collapse of the NHS is to shut everything for a month.

before I get to specific regional tables these are the all the age bands for all regions then sorted by highest current rate first. 25 age bands per table. Attached are to top 75. With 19 age bands and 9 regions that's not far off the half way point, and so should suffice.

Only 4 age bands in London feature in these three tables.

back to regional specific tables

North East, North West and South West

East Midlands, West Midlands, Yorkshire and the Humber

which must mean the two remaining are

East of England and South East , lack of joined up thinking there. I must have been a having a governmental moment there :) ; which one though given health is devolved?

10-14 age graph set - three regions per graph, y- axis on each id identical. Some very different profiles. Albeit just looking at movement since start of August.

15-19s - constant y-axis slightly problematic given rates reached in the South West, but does make the regional nature of the spikes very clear.

Yorkshire and the Humber has happily trundled along a downward trajectory through the month so far

Yorkshire and Humber has less optimistic news elsewhere. 65 to 69s and 70-74s

50-54s South West stands out in terms of trajectory