Meet the Other Phone. Child-safe in minutes.

Meet the Other Phone.
Child-safe in minutes.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Covid

Mumsnet doesn't verify the qualifications of users. If you have medical concerns, please consult a healthcare professional.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

992 replies

Barracker · 03/04/2020 18:10

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions. Flowers

OP posts:
Thread gallery
56
Eggcited · 04/04/2020 15:43

I can't do links. Check out Dana Ashlie on YouTube.

I prefer actual verified sources, not someone who describes themselves as a cutting edge Truther that is standing on the name of Jesus Christ.

Sexnotgender · 04/04/2020 15:45

Eggxatly @Eggcited😊

Eggcited · 04/04/2020 15:46

Very punny sex Grin

Chersfrozenface · 04/04/2020 15:47

Politifact article on supposed empty hospitals in the US, dated 3rd April.

Some salient points from the article:
The claim: "Pictures and reports of “empty hospitals” prove COVID-19 spread is “fake crisis for real government planned agendas.”"
The actual situation: "Hospital beds being kept empty to prepare for COVID-19 influx"

"We found some hospitals with significant numbers of empty beds. But that’s due largely to hospitals keeping beds empty as they prepare for an expected influx of patients who have COVID-19 disease.

"Canceled elective procedures and admissions are freeing up bed space to prepare for (the) surge," Dr. James Lawler, an infectious diseases expert and internal medicine professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, told PolitiFact. "In regions where hospitalization rates from COVID are still relatively low, this is resulting in more empty beds — which is good. The surge is coming to them as well."

There is plenty of evidence showing how extensive the outbreak is and is expected to continue to be. Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, has estimated between 100,000 and 240,000 Americans could die from the pathogen even as communities adopt stronger social distancing measures.

And an analysis from ProPublica and the Harvard Global Health Institute found that even in a "moderate case" scenario — where 40% of the adult population contracts the disease over the course of a year — the country would need to more than double available hospital beds by freeing up existing beds or adding new ones."

www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/apr/03/facebook-posts/hospital-beds-being-kept-empty-prepare-covid-influ/

BigChocFrenzy · 04/04/2020 15:47

Meanwhile, back to science, the FT geek's summary yesterday evening was concerning
Could we really exceed Spain's peak ?

John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch

Fri 3 April update of coronavirus trajectories

First, daily new deaths
US & UK both likely to pass Spain for peak daily deaths
• Daily death tolls in the thousands to become the norm in US
UK now clearly steeper than Italy

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3
MarshaBradyo · 04/04/2020 15:47

Hmm a conspiracy theorist on a daily numbers, graphs thread. You need the other section of the internet that way ->

mindproject · 04/04/2020 15:48

Ok, you believe whatever you want.

Eggcited · 04/04/2020 15:50

Ok, you believe whatever you want.

You can believe whatever and whoever you want. Just don't expect a warm welcome when you come to a factual thread and spread conspiracy theories.

BigChocFrenzy · 04/04/2020 15:54

It's not about "belief"
This isn't a religious thread

I look at facts, read graphs, analyses and a range of opinions from experts in the relevant fields,
then come here to discuss with pp who also like facts

Derbygerbil · 04/04/2020 15:55

Meanwhile hospitals in America, which are reported as being war zones, are in fact completely empty.

Yes, the Nightingale hospital in London is nearly empty... Clearly it’s a fake virus to promote evil Government control Hmm

.... or possibly just planning ahead as we haven’t reached peak?

Quarantinequeen · 04/04/2020 15:56

@Bornfreebutincovidchains yes I've found it really scary. I also have two conditions that put me in the vulnerable category but until you need a ventilator they just want you to stay at home and not infect anyone. I'm not surprised we are seeing news stories about people dying at home.

Gingernaut · 04/04/2020 16:01

If it's 'fake news', why are news reports like this being printed.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/mask-wars-coronavirus-outbidding-demand

The US has seized thousands of masks, manufactured in a Shanghai factory by US company 3M.

The masks HAD bought by another country, but the USA used the fact that 3M is a US company, to seize the masks for its own use.

ChazsBrilliantAttitude · 04/04/2020 16:16

I come to these threads for a calm discussion about numbers and I am glad to find that the vast majority on the thread are the same.
Although I could probably make a fortune manufacturing tin foil hats right now Wink
It’s now over two weeks since schools closed so hopefully the rate of case increase will slow over the next week (too soon to tell if it is a blip) with the death rate slowing a week or too after.

ReginaGeorgeous · 04/04/2020 16:17

Place marking. Thank you for the new thread @Barracker. I am not intelligent enough to contribute but I have very much enjoyed reading the last two threads.

FatimaLovesBread · 04/04/2020 16:18

I haven't been on the thread properly for a day or so so apologies if this has already mentioned. I know @Barracker has been wondering about the delay on reporting for a while.

I had been "waiting" for deaths at my local trust as I know numerous people that worked there and said the situation was bad etc (I know, I know hearsay but facts but)
Anyway, first deaths were in Thursday's figures, 2 deaths. Then Friday 4 more deaths. However, they stated their total deaths were actually 19. The others hadn't been reported before due to post mortem plus reporting issues. These 17 deaths added yesterday ranged from 23rd March until April 2nd. The two in Thursdays figures were from Monday 30th

nauticant · 04/04/2020 16:25

One of the best documentary programmes on the BBC, The Inquiry from the World Service, is being broadcast on Radio 4 in an hour looking at South Korea:

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000hfhn

picklemewalnuts · 04/04/2020 16:36

Hello! I followed carefully for a couple of weeks, but have had a few days off (sobbing into my tea!).

Would anyone fancy giving me a bit of an update? Where are we, what do we know?

Feel free to ignore me!

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 04/04/2020 16:43

Thanks Fatima - I’m always interested in comparing anecdotal accounts with what we go on to witness with the numbers.

What’s happened in your local trust is what we can now clearly see on the bar chart of announced daily deaths and actual date those deaths occurred that Barracker has made.

Will check in with my local hospital mortuary/funeral services friends tomorrow to find out what’s going on in their worlds...

hopefulhalf · 04/04/2020 16:45

Just my opinion I think both Italy (about a week ago) and Spain ( on wednesday ) have peaked. We have at least a week to go, as everyone else has said that depends on people staying home this weekend so as not to prolong it beyond 3rd week in April.

DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 04/04/2020 16:49

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3870972-What-s-the-critical-incident-at-Watford-hospital

Re: our visiting conspiracy theorist. Looks like Watford are struggling with oxygen supply. I heard stuff about arranging enormous capacity for the field hospitals, inc. innovative high volume delivery systems to get the supply to every bedside, so sounds logical to me:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-52151694

Big shout out to the staff at Watford General - it’s where my mam had her ovarian cancer surgery 20 years ago and they were all absolute diamonds.

BigChocFrenzy · 04/04/2020 17:01

NHS England’s national medical director Stephen Powis on the 5g conspiracy nutters:

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/04/uk-coronavirus-live-saturday-covid-19-latest-updates

"It is absolute and utter rubbish and I can’t condemn it stronger terms than that."

He said he was “disgusted” and “outraged” at reports of people taking out 5G masts at this time of national crisis.

He stressed that phone networks are crucial for people staying in touch with loved ones at this difficult time,
but also vital for the emergency services.

Yummyoldbag · 04/04/2020 17:08

There may be enough oxygen but the pressure is an issue. The pressure required to run non-invasive ventilation (preferable option if available and sufficient for the patient) is greater than that needed to run ventilators. I suspect bean counters have only recently caught onto the fact that deliverable pressure is an issue, not just the amount In the tanks.

VivaLeBeaver · 04/04/2020 17:09

Is the U.K. still only reporting hospital deaths?

Swipe left for the next trending thread