Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

The US's trajectory is very frightening. I can't figure out why Canada and in particular British Columbia has so few cases and fatalities though? When California locked down before them? and considering BC has a very large asian population. I do know that the Canadian govt advised self quarantine for anyone coming back from China in January/ Feb, but my niece who lives in Canada has said they were very lax about policing or regulating that back then.

And even so, surely cases slip through when this outbreak started in autumn/winter in Hubei?

Is the U.K. still only reporting hospital deaths?

In the daily figures, yes. However I believe ONS are reporting weekly on figures in the community.

One of the issues in America is access to healthcare which affects how healthy the population is generally. The less healthy you are the more susceptible you are and the more likely underlying health conditions may not be at peak management levels.

From what I can make out, the statistics about new cases are pretty meaningless in the context of not knowing how they are selecting people for testing or repeat testing - there are doubtless many people who are symptomatic and appear to have the virus but haven’t been tested - and I believe that it is possible to have it and be asymptomatic. So really an accurate count of mortalities (bearing in mind people are dying out of hospitals with or without the virus, and that dying WITH it might be seen as a different thing to dying FROM it) is sadly the most accurate indication we have of how it’s spreading ?

@didkdt
True. Wealth disparities definitely feed into health disparities in the US. Lower income, and BAME are going to bear the brunt of this dreadful set up. Tragic stories from medics at Elmhurst Hospital in Queens.

I can't believe that rich Americans are buying up their own ventilators when there is such outcry for more at a national level?

www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-rich-in-us-trying-to-buy-their-own-ventilators-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

Lil they’ve asked but not been sold them

At present, however, Kiple said that at present the company has decided not to accept individual orders, according to NBC News.

@HostessTrolley
I agree.

so long as no country or govt out there is transparent and consistent in how they measure and test for the virus, these cases really do not paint a true picture. It is therefore, only the fatalities, in or out of hospital that can add some clarity.

@MarshaBradyo

Ah, thank you! :)

@Barracker

It's hitting male/higher BMI/BAME

From here...
commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn03336/

...it looks like 70%+ of the population is overweight or obese. And we have ~70% of the covid ICU patients being overweight or obese.

There does not look to be any over-representation of those with higher BMI.

What am I missing?

I too would like to know about metabolic disorders (also, are patients with vit D deficiency over-represented)

It does seem inhuman and unreal to be talking in quite a detached way about ‘mortalities’ when it is people’s grandads and sisters, not just numbers :(

@TheFrendo The ICNARC report had a breakdown of characteristics of admitted patients in one of their reports.

I think a poster included this earlier in this thread

It's on page 5 of this thread

@hostesstrolley

No doubt we all know that every case actually represents a family suffering; maybe our own families and loved ones even. However, in my opinion, in order to look at trends and patterns, it sometimes is fairer to put those emotions aside for a bit and focus on what is happening, where and why- so that (I know for myself anyway) I can make a little sense of what is happening around me, especially as there are just so many cases of this virus across the world.

I find it too emotionally overwhelming otherwise

@LilMissRe,

Yes, I have the report. It shows about ~72% of those in ICU are overweight or obese. That figure is in line with general population, which is my point.

I don't see an over-representation.

See what I mean?

Very interesting thread, thanks.

Italy has recorded 681 deaths today. That's the lowest daily total since March 23rd.

That's cautiously encouraging, NotDavidTennant

Italy hopefully passed the peak deaths after 27.03,
but still looks a long struggle to get numbers down to what can be "tolerated" - whatever their govt decides that is

Italy:
22.03 651 deaths
23.03 601
24.03 743
25.03 683
26.03 712
27.03 919
28.03 889
29.03 756
30.03 812
31.03 837
01.04 727
02.04 760
03.04 766
04.04 681

Guardian show how all of our daily death toll numbers are underestimates due to the lag in reporting

Place marking.

It's hitting male/higher BMI/BAME people disproportionately compared to the non-Covid-19 pneumonia cohort.

I think I said compared to flu in my earlier post, but I meant this.

COVID-19 critical pneumonia is behaving differently to the non-Covid-19 critical pneumonia usually seen.

I don't understand why the deaths are so up and down.

So bacterial and viral pneumonia don't have this much higher risk for males and BAME ?

• Or not to this degree, as I gather they'll tend to have a slightly higher risk of most viruses ?

Would be very interesting to compare

Do you have a link of stats for those groups, for "ordinary" pneumonia, Barracker ?

placemarking. Thanks, Barracker, for the new thread.

Pickle imo, up and down because of 4 main reasons:

• figures on any one day are in fact from a mix of different dates

• changes in the method of counting CV deaths, which suddenly adds clumps on one day

• large number of infection hotspots around the country, with varying start & peak times, varying growth curves
  i.e. the total death curve is like summing different curves from around the country that have different timing

• normal statistical variance / noise - real life isn't smooth