Worries about the Coronavirus 29

[gnomeisland]

Last thread about to finish.
(Long time Lurker)

I don't understand why we are still getting so many negative test responses, when we are now only testing poorly people?

Deft that's great but, we've lost control of it in schools now!

UPDATE on coronavirus (#COVID19) testing in the UK:

As of 9am 17 March 2020, a total of 50,442 people have been tested:

48,492 negative
1,950 positive

The latest confirmed number of deaths will be announced later today.

The digital dashboard will be updated later today. t.co/ob25TmIowt

New York state reports 424 new cases of coronavirus and 5 new deaths, raising total to 1,374 cases and 12 dead t.co/eUoE2b20hL

Past peak less than 1% people affected, why is sir Patrick worried it will come back of Korea and China feels it will burn out.

@Ventilatorshortage yes, that's why I'm not taking them. I would normally do so as upping my inhaler steroids hasn't helped. I'm still waiting to hear back from my GP.

Why wouldn't all US states get as much equipment as needed? Do some have less money than others? No idea how it's all funded over there. Do they raise their own tax? I would've thought California was wealthy? Or is it the super rich Hollywood types have tax avoidance schemes and the normal people in that state are poor?

Are they postponing their election? Trump, Biden, and Saunders are all over 70 aren't they?

Never ever thought I would it say it but I’d take Hunt over Johnson as PM any day! Even though I worked in the NHS when he was decimating it

Do we only get one update at 9am I thought it was 2pm??

Sir Patrick agrees this may not come back and he could be wrong.

So his whole approach is based on the fact this may come back.
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UK diagnoses 407 MORE coronavirus patients taking UK total to 1,950 and 56 fatalities t.co/X3pTCaPNcB t.co/9PrhxEv7kR

So a colleague has been in a virtual meeting today with British thoracic society doctors. One of the consultants stepped out, came back and said sorry. They’d just had to go help colleagues with a patient who had initially tested negative and is now ventilated. Confirmed coronavirus Which is a bit scary that people can get false negatives.

"20,000 or below - that would be a good outcome."

The @UKScienceChief says he hopes #COVID19 deaths will only be "20,000" but admits that it's still a "huge number" which would place "enormous pressure" on the NHS.

Latest updates on #coronavirus 👉 t.co/oHUjWuakTo t.co/Q2hrDZ7mGp

1 death = 1000 cases is incorrect IMO.

Nobody knows what the asymptomatic and very mild case rate is at this point, but early Chinese data suggests it’s more like 1:1. So currently if you assume the death rate of symptomatic cases = 1% (it’s a lot higher in Italy/Iran/Spain) then 1 death = 100 symptomatic cases and 100 asymptomatic cases 2-3 weeks ago (because it takes an average of 18 days post symptoms onset to die).

Is anyone a HCP with suspected Coronavirus? It seemed there was some talk yesterday of testing hcp but I'm not sure if that is actually happening (probably not!)

The thing a lot of Western modellers overlook is that China actively went out and rounded up every mild case and contact of every case they could find. They literally temperature checked every family in Wuhan. This is why the WHO claim there are few hidden cases.

@VivaLeBeaver

There is a report in the press today test the 88 year old choir singer that died here yesterday tested negative twice in hospital before finally testing positive.

The test is not very sensitive.

I think I said on another thread China tested a lot so I think there figures are far more robust than Western figures.

Iran I think should be taken out (the attitude towards it and the effects of the Gulf War)

Is anyone a HCP with suspected Coronavirus? It seemed there was some talk yesterday of testing hcp but I'm not sure if that is actually happening (probably not!)

My colleague is a HCP and on Sunday she developed a sore throat and bad cough so she was sent home from work yesterday and is isolating for 7 days. There was no talk of testing her.

@Quartz2208

Agree re: Iran. It’s numbers seem to be very unreliable.

Bercows can you report back!

Then they need a better test.
Jesus! We have no hope if we can’t accurately test. I guess we just need to assume everyone with symptoms has it. But hospitals do to and isolate accordingly. Not have negatives testees on wards.

Also spoke to neighbour who said his mate works on an oil rig and normally does 30 on and 30 off. They haven’t been allowed off. The oil rig say they’re a coronavirus free zone and need to maintain that to ensure oil supply. They’ve been told they need to stay on for at least another 30 days and possibly months.

@defthand @Quartz2208 What do you estimate Iran's real figures are likely to be? given the mass graves they have been digging?

@queenofmyprinces Thanks yeah me too..been in bed for a few days..feel really rubbish so it doesnt matter at the moment whether I have it or not I dont suppose!

I'll report back should I hear anything.