Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

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But am I wrong in saying that how they choose to interpret that treaty is key? Even if approval to withdraw isn't granted, he could still refuse to send boots on the ground, weapons etc

He could certainly make things hell for a lot of people, as he did with his decision to pull out of Afghanistan without including the government of that country in the talks about when and how the US was to abandon them.

Yet he's leading in the polls. Honestly, I despair for us all if he's elected. I just can't believe it's a possibility let alone a likelihood

Tucker's a nasty piece of work, who doesn't seem particularly constrained by truthfulness, but it's not illegal for him to interview the president of Russia (if that's what he's done).

I get your frustration, though!

Thing is I’m not necessarily sure Trump wouldn’t come to NATOs aid. Yes he leans towards Russia but at the end of the day he’s a narcissist and can you imagine the glee he’d derive from getting to be the big hero riding in on his white horse to save Europe…..

The EU needs to significantly get itself sorted.

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/02/05/stop-exporting-weapons-and-send-them-to-ukraine-instead-borrell-urges-eu-countries

However, according to Borrell, industrial capacity is no longer an obstacle: what is hampering deliveries to Ukraine is the fact that European companies are exporting weapons to clients that are not at war.
"An important part of our production is being exported to third countries," the chief diplomat said, without naming the destinations.
"The quickest and cheapest and (most) effective way of increasing our supply of ammunition to Ukraine is to stop exporting to third countries. And this is something that only member states can do – and this has been my request."
Borrell noted that, besides the 520,000 artillery shells projected to be donated by March, European companies were also selling weapons to Ukraine "on a commercial basis" and in "great numbers," although he did not provide figures owing to "security reasons."
"Don't believe that there's only donations. Our industry produces to donate and produces to sell – and produces to sell to others," Borrell said.
"So the best way to sell more to Ukraine, or to donate more to Ukraine, is to try to tell the others (clients) – 'please wait, you're not at war, you can wait some months' – and divert this production to Ukraine," he went on.

On 1st February the Quinnipiac poll had Biden leading Trump by six points: 50-44 margin head-to-head.

Biden's strengths were his connections with women – 58-36 – and independents, who chose him by a 52-40 margin.

Did I mention on this thread that as far as I am aware polls this far out from the election mean little or nothing, and are subject to change from week to week and even day to day? They're not prophesies, just snapshots of how a particular group of the electorate are thinking at the time they are asked particular questions by a given organisation.

Thank you for the glimmers of hope!

The actual election aside I was reading analysis this pm (BBC iirc) that said Trump was pulling the strings blocking Ukraine aid...not necessarily because he wouldn't send aid if he's elected but he wants to make it look like Biden failed to do so.

It was discussing the prospect that no US aid will be released until after the election.

How many Ukrainian lives will pay for cheap electioneering slogans?

Yes I read this too, it's disgusting isn't it? His narcissism is more important that Ukrainian lives

Reading his rants on Truth Social (the ones that are not covert instructions to his followers to kill the judges he doesn't like) makes it clear that he is instructing the Republicans to behave as he wants them to.

It is the trick that Nixon pulled about Vietnam, isn't it. Make things worse until you are elected and then swoop in to save the day. He is doing it about the border (because let's face it, closing the border is really the only actual policy the Republicans seem to have to campaign on, so it will be embarrassing if Biden does it before they can) and Ukraine is his sacrifice on the altar of sucking up to Putin. He does just love dictators; he wants to emulate them.

Well, it's similar to what Reagan's campaign allegedly did towards the end of Carter's presidential term.

Allegedly Iran agreed to delay the release of its US hostages until after the election, to prevent Carter getting any credit; it was allegedly in return for this that the Reagan administration provided Iran with arms (via Israel) for many years from 1980 onwards.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_October_Surprise_theory

Whether that allegation were true or not, much of the current Republican party would certainly be venal enough to run with the idea.

I can get my head around the idea of a narcissist like Trump. One deeply flawed man.
What really makes me angry is all the representatives cowardly falling into line and doing his bidding while being fully aware of the real, human cost.

I've always been critical of the levels of integrity in politics and Europe is hardly a shinning beacon but ffs wake up America

Yes, absolutely. They make me sick. Driven by self interest rather than the good of their country and the world

Quite so. From the WSJ recently.

Republican Submission to Trump Reveals the Rot Within

They anger me more than Trump. He's a terrible person but he would be powerless without all these people enabling him. I don't know how they can live with themselves.

And the media. Read that a lot of the right wing media do nothing but praise this vapid and vicious man and people don't get any other perspective so they think he's been victimized. Suspect that's true which means the media moguls are getting a lot out of Trump.

America is being attacked from the inside, it's shocking

"Trump is already shaping Geopolitics"

archive.is/2024.01.16-090801/www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/trump-already-reshaping-geopolitics

"According to John Bolton, who was then Trump’s national security adviser, Trump said, “I don’t give a shit about NATO” during a 2019 meeting in which he talked seriously about withdrawing from the alliance altogether. In part, Trump’s threats were a bargaining ploy to force European states to meet their commitment to spend two percent of GDP on their own defense—but only in part. After two years of attempting to persuade Trump about the importance of the United States’s alliances, Secretary of Defense John Mattis concluded that his differences with the president were so profound that he could no longer serve, a position he explained candidly in his 2018 letter of resignation. Today, Trump’s campaign website calls for “fundamentally reevaluating NATO’s purpose and NATO’s mission.” When considering how many tanks or artillery shells to send to Ukraine, some Europeans are now pausing to ask whether they might need those arms for their own defense were Trump to be elected in November."

Recommendations on war readiness to the govt by the House of Commons defence committee: committees.parliament.uk/publications/43178/documents/214880/default/

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Russia’s Central Bank announced last week that the country’s banks had achieved record profits last year, raking in some 3.3 trillion rubles ($36.8 billion). There’s no guarantee that the Central Bank’s figures are completely accurate. Large swathes of data are no longer made public, while government departments have a clear incentive to present a picture rosier than reality. https://kyivindependent.com/russias-increased-wartime-spending-catapults-economy-into-growth/

The European Parliament and the Council of the EU had concluded a preliminary agreement on the Ukraine Facility of 50 billion euros ($54 billion), the Council's press service said on Feb. 6. https://kyivindependent.com/eu-council-european-parliament-reach-provisionary-agreement-on-54-billion-ukraine-facility/

Ukraine expects to receive F-16 fighter jets and missiles with a range between 300 and 500 kilometers "in further military aid packages" from its allies, Joint Forces Commander Serhii Naiev said on Feb. 5. https://kyivindependent.com/commander-ukraine-waiting-for-missiles-with-300-500-km-range-from-allies/

⚡️ White House threatens to veto standalone Israel aid bill proposed by Republicans. https://kyivindependent.com/white-house-threatens-to-veto-standalone-israel-aid-bill/

Russia has likely helped North Korea unblock frozen funds and otherwise worked to connect the country with international financial institutions it has long been shut out of, The New York Times (NYT) reported on Feb 6 citing unnamed sources in Western intelligence. https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-russia-possibly-helping-north-korea-access-international-financial-system/

Revised mobilization bill https://kyivindependent.com/new-version-of-mobilization-bill-seeks-to-reinforce-draft-in-ukraine-in-2024/ seeks to reinforce conscription in Ukraine in 2024
The new draft introduces a fixed service period, a younger minimum age for conscription, and additional restrictions that may be imposed for the summoned conscripts who don’t show up at recruitment centers.

⚡️ Budanov asks Canada to hand over 83,000 decommissioned rocketshttps://kyivindependent.com/budanov-asks-canada-to-hand-over-83-000-decommissioned-rockets/

Despite imposed sanctions over the war in Ukraine, millions of barrels of fuel derived from Russian oil continue to be imported into the U.K., BBC reports citing findings by Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air as well as Global Witness. https://kyivindependent.com/bbc-reports-suggest-russian-oil-entering-uk-through-refinery-loophole/

⚡️ EU, IFC to mobilize over $530 million https://kyivindependent.com/eu-ifc-to-mobilise-over-530-million-for-ukraines-private-sector-recovery/ for Ukraine's private sector recovery. This is part of the IFC's Better Futures Program that aims to mobilize over 500 million euros ($537 million) across sectors, including infrastructure, goods production, decarbonization, and job preservation.

⚡️ EU aims to start payments https://kyivindependent.com/von-der-leyen-eu-aims-to-start-payments-of-54-billion-ukraine-facility-fund-in-march/ of $54 billion Ukraine Facility fund in March.

⚡️Portugal, Ukraine sign memorandum https://kyivindependent.com/portuguese-delegation-signs-memorandum-on-restoring-ukrainian-schools/ on restoring Ukrainian schools.

Veterans Affairs Minister Yuliia Laputina submitted her resignation to the Ukrainian parliament, Chairman Ruslan Stefanchuk reported on Feb. 5. https://kyivindependent.com/veterans-affairs-minister-yuliia-laputina-submits-her-resignation/

⚡️Latvian farmers protest https://kyivindependent.com/latvian-farmers-protest-russian-belarusian-grain-imports/ Russian, Belarusian food imports.

⚡️Bihus.info investigative outlet says https://kyivindependent.com/bihus-info-investigative-outlet-says-sbu-behind-illegal-surveillance-of-its-team/ SBU behind illegal surveillance of its team.

⚡️ Media: Finland to extend border closure https://kyivindependent.com/media-finland-to-extend-border-closure-with-russia/ with Russia.

⚡️Authorities ban https://kyivindependent.com/authorities-ban-foreign-humanitarian-workers-from-parts-of-kherson-oblast/ foreign humanitarian workers from parts of Kherson Oblast after French citizens killed in Russian attack.

⚡️ UPDATE: Russian attack on Kharkiv kills 2-month-old boy https://kyivindependent.com/update-russian-attack-on-kharkiv-kills-2-month-old-boy-injures-3/ injures 3.

Lot of losses - over 1000 people, over 100 hardware.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 6, 2024
■ Most engagements in close to 3 weeks, 🇷🇺 strikes up but still below average as well as 🇺🇦 ones
■ 1000+ casualties & massive equipment losses incl. impressive APV & tank losses
■ Oryx: 18 🇷🇺 2 🇺🇦 added to records (after cleanup)

Budanov asks Canada to hand over 83,000 decommissioned rockets

CRV7s....

Some doubts being expressed about how many warheads are actually available to go with the rockets but even with no warhead they carry a formidable amount of Kinetic Energy and you would not want to be on the wrong end of a salvo of the things.

Fairly old tech by modern standards but better than nothing, as long as the propellent is still stable enough for it to be safe enough to actually fire the things.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRV7

Not sure how I missed it, and apologies if it's been covered, but looks Like the Hungarian Parliament failed to ratify Sweden's accession to NATO.

FAILED?!

.....................................

https://www.euronews.com/2024/02/06/hungarys-viktor-orban-dodges-an-opportunity-to-ratify-swedens-nato-membership