Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

@MissConductUS

I was a bit surprised that they used B-1B strategic bombers based in the U.S. I didn’t think the environment would be judged permissive enough.

I’m just catching up with this - I’m not sure how deep the B1s went but with a big coordinated strike package (the sort of thing the US can put together) it’s a fair bet you could make pretty much airspace permissive enough for long enough for the B1s to get to within standoff weapon range of targets…though there are risks.

Did anything about it catch your eye?

Yep, the early reports that some A-10s got used…

Love to be a fly on a wall on the debrief..

^^

I maybe would add, in an attempt to be on topic and maybe manage expectations, that last night’s action would have involved a whole range of disciplines and aircraft (manned and unmanned types, plus heaven knows what else operating behind the scenes), the planned F-16 deliveries won’t give the Ukr AF anything like the capability to carry out that sort of operation.

On another point I noticed upthread there was a link to a plea a few days from a Ukrainian VSO for A-10s, now that’s either a legacy wish that dates back to the send anything days, or the Ukrainians reckon Russian Air Defence at low level on/near the battlefield has become so attrited (?) that the aircraft is now considered viable in the current environment.

@MissConductUS

Did anything about it catch your eye?

Hitting Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets?

That would appear to be a significant escalation - or have I been asleep for the past month?

@mids2019 I totally agree with everything you said. Few random thoughts of my own, all guesswork:

Sadly the state of US politics is a major factor here. But assuming that Ukraine has to do without the support of the US after the elections, the EU is trying quietly quite hard to improve its military state. It won't be enough probably, Ukraine has said that the lack of US maintenance and other support has already had an effect, but it will do something.

In terms of the world politics, I think myself that we really are going towards a more multi-polar world now. In some ways that's actually a good thing, but in other ways it's not for one reason: While the US is very far from perfect, China is notably worse and so is Russia.

The influence of the Russian campaign to gain leverage in the West cannot be underestimated, I think, while the West remains a democracy. I honestly think that it may come down to a choice; either the West bans pernicious SM mediums like TikTok, Twitter, Facebook, or it accepts that the Far Right will keep on rising and democracy itself might wither. On a large scale full democracy (one person one vote) is a recent thing and it's an experiment to see if it works in the face of such challenges.

Access to things vital for current life may become more difficult, eg rare earths (although there are those newly discovered giant deposits in Sweden, though they will take more than a decade to be accessed)

Climate change will also have a real effect on world politics in the future of course.

or the Ukrainians reckon Russian Air Defence at low level on/near the battlefield has become so attrited (?) that the aircraft is now considered viable in the current environment. Good question. They do seem to be able to attack Crimea rather easily now some of the Russian air defence systems have been destroyed, though ofc we don't hear about the attacks that fail.

@DancesWithDucks

The influence of the Russian campaign to gain leverage in the West cannot be underestimated, I think, while the West remains a democracy.

Very much agree.

I honestly think that it may come down to a choice; either the West bans pernicious SM mediums like TikTok, Twitter, Facebook, or it accepts that the Far Right will keep on rising and democracy itself might wither.

I'm afraid I think all SM is liable to be pernicious at times, including this place...we've seen the problems on the Ukraine related threads and I've got some severe doubts about the motives of some of those involved in the multiple Israel/Gaza threads.

I'm sure some have honest intent but when a brand new thread on that topic pops up almost everyday I begin to wonder if all the outrage is really quite as innocent as is sometimes made out.

Interesting times and it's going to get more interesting.

Yep, the early reports that some A-10s got used…

Like most ground combat types, I'm a big fan of the A-10. The USAF bureaucracy (also known as the "chair force") has been trying to kill the A-10 for decades, but they keep finding missions for them.

I saw the news about the Ukrainians wanting the A-10 and agree that they must think there are areas where the threat is low enough to use them. It's often overlooked that the hogs can carry a very large load out of ordinance, including the AGM-154 JSOW glide bomb and the AIM-9 Sidewinder air to air missile. So it could be used in missions other than pure combat air support.

Hitting Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets?

That would appear to be a significant escalation - or have I been asleep for the past month?

Perhaps a bit, but by placing themselves among the forces that have attacked US troops, they assumed the same risk of retaliation as those forces.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Military: Over 70,000 Russian soldiers deployed https://kyivindependent.com/military-over-70-000-russian-soldiers-deployed-on-dnipro-rivers-east-bank/ on Dnipro River’s east bank.

The United Nations' International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that it will hear a part of Ukraine's lawsuit against Russia over false allegations of genocide that Moscow used to justify its full-scale invasion, Reuters reported on Feb. 2. https://kyivindependent.com/top-un-court-rules-russia-ukraine-genocide-case-can-go-forward/

⚡️Official: Ukraine evacuates https://kyivindependent.com/official-ukraine-evacuates-over-100-people-from-russian-occupied-avdiiivka-outskirts/ over 100 people from Russian-occupied outskirts of Avdiiivka. [Im afraid that gradually Russia is taking Avdiivka, at huge cost]

⚡️ General Syrskyi visits https://kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-visits-embattled-kupiansk-sector-of-the-front/ embattled Kupiansk sector amid 'tense' situation. "The operational situation remains tense... The enemy continues to conduct high-intensity assault operations and is constantly bringing in new supplies," the report said.

Germany's parliament approved on Feb. 2 the country's budget for this year, including 7.6 billion euros ($8.2 billion) in military assistance for Kyiv. https://kyivindependent.com/germany-passes-2024-budget-providing-over-8-billion-in-military-aid-for-ukraine/

Months after approval by Bulgaria's parliament and government, 100 armored vehicles once belonging to the country's Interior Ministry are now en route to Ukraine, Defense Minister Todor Tagarev said on Feb. 2. https://kyivindependent.com/bulgarian-minister-says-pledged-armored-vehicles-bound-for-ukraine/

Lithuania delivered detonation systems and thousands of ammunition rounds for anti-tank grenade launchers to Ukraine, the Lithuanian Defense Ministry announced on social media on Feb. 2. https://kyivindependent.com/lithuania-delivers-detonation-systems-ammunition-to-ukraine/

⚡️Polish farmers to stage https://kyivindependent.com/polish-farmers-to-stage-more-nationwide-protests-this-month/ more protests at Ukrainian border, nationwide.

⚡️Romanian government reaches https://kyivindependent.com/romanian-government-reaches-agreement-with-farmers-trucks-to-end-protests-at-ukrainian-border/ agreement with farmers, truckers to end protests at Ukrainian border.

Ukrainian forces damaged at least three Russian military aircraft at the Belbek military airfield near Sevastopol in occupied Crimea, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat confirmed on Feb. 2. https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-damages-3-russia-aircraft-in-crimea/

A fire broke out at the Volgograd oil refinery overnight on Feb. 3, regional governor Andrei Bocharov reported via Telegram. https://kyivindependent.com/fire-breaks-out-at-russian-refinery-in-volgograd/

DTEK, Ukraine's chief private energy company, said on Feb. 3 that one of its thermal power plants was hit in an overnight Russian attack. The plant's equipment was "severely damaged," according to DTEK. https://kyivindependent.com/dtek-power-plant-ukrenergo-equipment-damaged-in-russian-attacks/

Toomas Nakhkur, the acting director of the Department of Military-Technical Policy, Development of Armaments and Military Equipment of Ukraine's Defense Ministry, was suspended at the request of Deputy Defense Minister Ivan Havryliuk. https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-official-suspended-in-alleged-connection-to-weapons-procurement-fraud-case/

⚡️Spain teaches https://kyivindependent.com/spain-training-ukrainian-military-personnel-on-servicing-patriot-missile-system/ Ukrainian military personnel to service Patriot missile system.

Canada's opposition Conservative Party asked the government to send tens of thousands of decommissioned rockets to Ukraine instead of destroying them, CBC reported on Feb. 2. https://kyivindependent.com/canadian-opposition-calls-for-donating-decommissioned-rockets-to-ukraine/

Estimates vary, but Georgian media approximates that between 50-60 Georgian soldiers have been killed fighting for Ukraine since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022, making it likely the highest death toll of any foreign nationality fighting on the Ukrainian side. https://kyivindependent.com/georgian-likely-rank-first-among-foreign-fighters-killed-fighting-for-ukraine/

⚡️ Ukraine's Foreign Ministry demands explanation https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-foreign-ministry-demands-explanation-after-germanys-tv-report-from-occupied-mariupol/ after Germany's TV report from occupied Mariupol.
A visit by the German ZDF TV channel's correspondent to Russian-occupied Mariupol without Kyiv's consent violated Ukrainian law, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Oleh Nikolenko said on Feb. 2. [He said that Mariupol was being rebuilt, people welcomed the Russians and that a lot of Russians were moving there].

⚡️Mediazona confirms identities of over 43,400 Russian soldiers https://kyivindependent.com/mediazona-confirms-identities-of-over-43-400-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine/ killed in Ukraine.

⚡️NGO: 4 more Ukrainian children rescued https://kyivindependent.com/ngo-4-more-ukrainian-children-rescued-from-russian-occupation/ from Russian occupation.

A10 Warthog?

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fairchild_Republic_A-10_Thunderbolt_II

Yes please for Ukraine!

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

European leaders have confirmed their intention to provide continued military support for Ukraine, amounting to 20 billion euros exclusively for military purposes over the next four years, according to Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal.

Romanian Chief of General Staff calls to be ready for war with Putin — Politico.
In his opinion, if Russia overpowers Ukraine, Moldova will be next, because this is not a war against Ukraine only, this is Russia's war with democratic peace.

The US Treasury has announced sanctions against a key network of suppliers of materials and technology for Iran's ballistic missile and drone programs, including the Shahed series.

💥Drones attacked the Lukoil enterprise in the Russian Federation, media reports
"Lukoil" is the largest producer of petroleum products in the Southern Federal District of Russia.

Brazil became the largest importer of Russian petroleum products last year, overtaking Türkiye, — Financial Times.
The article reports that Brazil imported 6.1 million tons of diesel from Russia in 2023, which is over 60 times more than 101,000 tons in 2022. The value in dollar terms increased from $95 million to $4.5 billion, according to official government figures.

France has confirmed that two French people were killed, and three others were wounded in a Russian attack in Beryslav, Kherson region, on February 1. This was reported by the Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, Stéphane Séjourné, on Twitter (X).

Czech military has already trained almost a thousand Ukrainian soldiers in Poland.
Specialized mobile groups of Czech engineers, chemists, medics and snipers were involved in the training, the Czech Ministry of Defense reports.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

In his address, Zelensky said that two more air defense systems had arrived in Ukraine, which "shoot down everything."
He did not specify which systems arrived.

"The Crimean bridge is still standing because Ukraine has no weapons to destroy it. However, on the day of its destruction, this event will be celebrated not only in Kyiv," Minister of Foreign Affairs Kuleba said https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/dmytro-kouleba-si-l-ukraine-gagne-l-europe-sera-prospere-et-en-securite-20240201 in an interview with Le Figaro

🇭🇺 Hungarian farmers have scheduled a protest for February 9 at the Záhony-Chop checkpoint. They are opposed to the European Commission's position on the continuation of duty-free imports of Ukrainian products.

According to Ukrainian military analyst Taras Chmut, during the battle for Zmiinyi Island, Ukrainian forces used MLRS installed on a barge https://t.me/liveukraine_media/17821

The Serbian-Russian actor Miloš Biković has supported Putin since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Recently, he was offered the lead role in the third season of the HBO series White Lotus. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry reacted to this and asked the HBO whether it was "normal for them to work with a person who supports genocide and violates international law."
Already today, Deadline wrote https://deadline.com/2024/02/the-white-lotus-milos-bikovic-exits-hbo-controversy-russia-ukraine-war-1235812520/ that the company had canceled its contract with the Putinist artist. Miloš Biković confirmed this information and complained that an "information campaign" was being conducted against him.

Ukraine's tactic of striking deep into Russian territor may be forcing Russia to move air defence internally to Russian territory. Putin cannot afford to look weak in an upcoming election if it is unable to protect key cities and assets.

More air defence in Russia = fewer in Ukraine and surrounds = more freedom for aircraft in Ukrain.

Just my over-simplistic non-expert guess!

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-2-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin evoked a wide Russian social and economic mobilization reminiscent of the Soviet Union’s total mobilization during the Second World War during a February 2 speech despite the fact that Russia is undertaking a far more gradual but nonetheless effective mobilization of its defense industrial base (DIB).
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stated on February 2 that Russian forces retain the “strategic initiative” along the entire frontline in Ukraine, a notable departure from Shoigu’s previous characterization of Russian operations as “active defense.”
• Open-source investigations indicate that Russian forces are benefitting from Ukraine’s ammunition shortage and inability to conduct sufficient counterbattery warfare.
• US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller reiterated on February 1 that Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly indicated that he has not changed his aims to capture and subjugate Ukraine.
• Russian milbloggers and ultranationalist figures continue to present themselves as impartial and constructive critics of the Russian military in juxtaposition to official Kremlin sources in the Russian information space.
• Kremlin affiliates reportedly launched an information campaign wherein prominent social media influencers promote the Russian Orthodox Church.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on February 2.
• Russian outlet Izvestiya stated on February 2, citing sources within the Russian military, that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is forming air defense units as part of assault units to defend Russian infantry against Ukrainian drones, frontline air strikes, and shelling.
• Ukrainian and Canadian officials announced a new coalition to return Ukrainian children from Russia to Ukraine.

[Cannot locate the UK Min of Def Ukraine Intelligence update]

How the Ivanovets was sunk. Visual link right until the last seconds. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1753376327481151946

For the first time in the history of world wars, a group strike by naval drones guided by a space satellite destroyed a warship that was sailing on the high seas in full combat readiness.

On February 1, 2024, maritime drones of the Group 13 unit of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine destroyed a Russian Project 12411 missile corvette in the Black Sea near a protected naval base on Lake Donuzlav in the temporarily occupied Crimea. The Project 12411 missile corvette, with a displacement of up to 500 tonnes and a crew of 40, is armed with supersonic Moskit P-270 anti-ship missiles.

A group of six Ukrainian Magura V5 maritime drones infiltrated the Russian Black Sea Fleet base Donuzlav undetected, and then attacked consecutively one after another. The missile corvette was apparently conducting combat patrols and defending the base. It is worth noting that Russian intelligence did not notice the approach of the drones.

The crew of Ivanovets, judging by the video, noticed the approach of the drones visually, and the corvette was in motion at the time of the attack and could maneuver. A missile corvette can reach speeds of over 30 knots and simply escape from the drones. But the Ivanovets did not have time to gain speed. The bow 76 mm AK-176 anti-aircraft artillery system, as can be clearly seen, was in a stowed position, i.e. it was not activated and did not open fire. It is also not evident that the Russians managed to deploy two 30mm anti-aircraft artillery systems AK-630 in time, which are capable of delivering dense fire against moving targets at close distances. But apparently, the drones were hit by machine gun fire from close range by the watch on duty. However, due to the small size, speed, and maneuverability of the drones, Russians failed to hit them.

The Group 13 commanders' well-chosen attack tactics are admirable - the first drone hit the stern of the corvette from the starboard side to disable the propellers. The corvette was unable to reach full speed, but did not stop. Then the second drone also hit the propellers, but on the port side. With these two strikes, the corvette was reliably deprived of movement and maneuver. After that, the ship was skillfully finished off. The third drone struck the middle of the hull under the Moskit missile launchers, causing a large hole in the port side. The drone operator sent the fourth drone directly into that hole. The explosion from the fourth drone was fatal for the ship. The impact detonated four Moskit missiles with a total weight of 4 tonnes each. The Ivanovets missile corvette literally blew to pieces, leaving the crew with little chance of survival.

The brilliant success of the Ukrainian soldiers, the command and operators of the Group 13 of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine showed a high level of intelligence, planning, preparation and management of the operation. The attack tactics deserve to be studied as a model. It is worth noting that the goal of the attack was not to hit, but to completely destroy the ship, so a whole group of drones was dispatched to ensure proper execution of the task, which allowed for maximum losses to be inflicted on the enemy.

It's not long been posted.

Thanks! @L1ttledrummergirl

@DancesWithDucks thanks for linking to the videos. The destruction of the Ivanovets reads like the stuff of legend. The attack by naval drones was exquisitely designed and executed. Detonating the explosive power of the missiles stored in the vessel to blow it to thy kingdom come via a double tap of the breached hull is a master stroke.

My hats off to Ukrainian ingenuity and skill. Slava Ukraini!

Thanks

someone asked how much Ru artillery was left. Just found an analysis - accuracy unknown.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1753794884249497702

I was very heartened by the chat in my local pub tonight. Don't believe it when people say that everyone has forgotten Ukraine. All the talk was about the war people are listening to podcasts and keeping abreast of the news

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Military intelligence reports https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-reports-assassination-attempt-on-russian-military-pilot/ assassination attempt on Russian military pilot.
Oleg Stegachev, the crew commander of a Russian Tu-95 strategic bomber, was shot in the Russian city of Engels, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) reported on Feb. 3

⚡️Germany, France reportedly to sign https://kyivindependent.com/germany-france-ukraine-security-guarantees/ security agreements with Ukraine within weeks.

⚡️Poland reiterates support https://kyivindependent.com/poland-reiterates-support-for-20-billion-euros-ukraine-military-aid-fund/ for 20-billion-euro Ukraine military aid fund.

⚡️ US House to vote on standalone Israel aid package, excluding https://kyivindependent.com/us-house-to-vote-on-standalone-israel-aid-package-excluding-ukraine-from-broader-combined-bill/ Ukraine from funding bill.
House Speaker Mike Johnson revealed on Feb. 3 that the U.S. House of Representatives will hold a vote next week on a standalone $17.6 billion aid package for Israel, excluding a proposed $61 billion in military funding for Ukraine

⚡️Update: White House denounces https://kyivindependent.com/update-white-house-denounces-planned-house-vote-on-standalone-israel-aid-package-that-excludes-ukraine-aid-funding/ planned House vote on Israel aid package that excludes Ukraine aid funding.

⚡️FT: G7 developing plans to support https://kyivindependent.com/ft-g7-developing-plans-to-support-ukraine-in-securing-funds-by-leveraging-russian-assets-as-a-financial-safety-net/ Ukraine in securing funds by leveraging Russian assets as a financial safety net.
Group of Seven (G7) countries are developing strategies to issue debt to support Ukraine, utilizing Russian assets as a safety net for repayment, the Financial Times reported on Feb. 3.
According to G7 officials familiar with the discussions, the proposed plan involves Kyiv's allies raising debt to provide financial support for Ukraine and demanding that Russia repays the debt. If Russia does not repay the debt, the countries would then seize frozen Russian assets.

⚡️Japan to host https://kyivindependent.com/japan-to-host-over-200-businesses-at-conference-promoting-ukraines-economic-recovery/ over 200 businesses at conference promoting Ukraine's economic recovery.

Latest defense corruption case goes after officials allegedly tied to deadly ammunition shortage kyivindependent.com/officials-allegedly-tied-with-deadly-ammunition-shortage/
Ukrainian officials from the Defense Ministry are accused of embezzling funds to the tune of $39.6 million and engaging in procedural tactics to avoid prosecution.
It would have been an ordinary Ukrainian story, but the difference is in the body count.
Worse, the intermediary firms and people involved may have ties with Russia.

A Russian attack on Feb. 2 damaged a grain silo in Poltava Oblast, destroying a part of the harvest stored inside, Filip Pronin, the regional governor, said on Feb. 3. https://kyivindependent.com/governor-russian-attack-damages-granary-in-poltava-oblast/

⚡️Minister: Odesa port exports https://kyivindependent.com/minister-odesa-port-exports/ in January almost at pre-war levels.
A total of 6.3 million metric tons of goods were exported through ports in and around the city of Odesa in January 2024, which was "almost equal" to levels seen before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov reported on Feb. 3.

⚡️Diia public services app up and running again after Eurovision https://kyivindependent.com/eurovision-voters-crash-diia-application-after-record-15-000-users-per-second/ vote overwhelms servers.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 4, 2024
■ Settlements under fire, strikes & engagements below avg
■ Casualties below avg but highest 7-day total this year so far ■ Equipment below avg; 7-day vehicles & artillery highest in 2024
■ Oryx: 29 🇷🇺 11 🇺🇦, 30-day ratio 3.1x

I think the media attention has ramped up and brought it home a bit more. Precisely by suggesting that the war could be brought to home. Hopefully all these people will support an increase in defence spending!

I think the that gradually the "pink sunglasses" are falling off and we are waiting to a grim reality Europe was used to for the majority of its history. That Russia like the USSR is a threat and we should be prepared for it in the West.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Deep State analysts have released new satellite images of the Belbek airfield in temporarily occupied Crimea.
The images reveal damage to the command post of the 38th Fighter Aviation Regiment of the Russian Armed Forces, previously struck. According to Air Force Ukraine's spokesperson, Yuriy Ignat, at least three planes were affected by a missile strike on January 31. Losses in personnel are under investigation, while Russian reports indicate the death of at least ten occupiers and Lieutenant General Aleksandr Tatarenko.

Canada plans to transfer 1970s CRV7 air-to-surface missiles to Ukraine instead of scrapping them, — CBC

❗️The Russians have approved the plan to populate the occupied territories of the Zaporizhzhia region with people from Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, — Mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov.
According to Fedorov, this should be the second pilot project of the Russians to change the ethnic composition of the population after the Far East. The plan received the code name "Zaporizka virgin land"

In Moscow, journalists were detained who filmed the action of the wives of the mobilized
On Manezhnaya Square, police officers detained journalists who were working on the action of the "Way Home" group of mobilized wives. [They were later released]

Sony has banned the activation of its games on the Steam platform for users from the Russian Federation and Belarus
Russian and Belarusian Steam accounts can no longer activate Sony developer games.

Hungary will not supply weapons to Ukraine, but is ready to pay for the supply of non-lethal military equipment, said the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Péter Szijjártó.

According to Deutsche Welle, Putin has given Germany a boost in the defense industry, turning the production of high-tech weapons into an important export branch of the country's economy. In recent years, Germany has ranked fifth among the world's largest arms exporters, reaching a record €12.2 billion in arms deliveries abroad in 2023, as reported by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
Despite Germany's historical pacifist sentiments, the attitudes towards defense enterprises are evolving, particularly against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine and continuous threats from Moscow.
This shift in perception is deemed crucial, especially as the German economy faces challenges, with some industries undergoing structural changes due to the impact of energy price increases following the cessation of Russian gas supplies.

Germany could potentially finalize a security guarantee agreement with Ukraine as early as February. The draft is prepared, with finalization pending, according to the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

The CRV7 missiles