Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

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@Fox111 I hope so yes. Who would have dreamed we'd be in this position in Europe 3 years ago.

Live Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The territorial defense forces repelled a Russian subversive group on the outskirts of Hlukhiv community in Sumy region
The soldiers started a small arms battle with ten saboteurs. Later, Ukrainian mortar launchers joined the battle. The occupiers suffered losses and retreated across the state border.
The State Border Guard Service has previously noted that Sumy region is the most active for sabotage and reconnaissance groups.

[Tomorrow the roundup will be later than usual.]

Yes exactly. It's horribly depressing. What a world where we are at the mercy of old power hungry men for whom people are just collateral damage

@DancesWithDucks @MagicFox
Well well I think that everyone knew Putin, but no one thought he would be so stupid to invade. But then again the West gave every possible indication that they would not be bothered that much even if he did. They failed Ukraine with the Budapest memorandum, Crimea annexation, ambiguity regarding NATO membership.

All true. And the mess that was the failure of withdrawal from Afghanistan meant that he thought he could get away with invading Ukraine.

He had already got away with invading Ukraine the first time, after all.

The mess in Afghanistan was the work of his puppet, Trump. I think Trump may have caused him to discount the US: if someone that stupid and ignorant could get in once, it could happen again.

mm. The future is very worrying. Agree with MissConductUSA that Biden really, really, really should step aside now.

Does anybody have a Times share token so I can read this 🤞www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-future-of-war-3dd3pg86r

I think he is a huge problem for the Democratic Party and the country. If he stays there will be a landslide victory for Trump.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-3-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The Kremlin is doubling down on its support for Iran as the US conducts strikes to preempt attacks by Iranian-back proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen against American and other targets.
• The Kremlin censored a protest by wives of mobilized soldiers in Moscow on February 3 likely to suppress any possible resurgence of a broader social movement in support of Russian soldiers and against the regime.
• Soviet leadership experienced first-hand the influence that social movements of relatives of Russian soldiers wielded in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and the Kremlin likely aims to preemptively censor and discredit similar movements before they can garner similar influence.
• Putin may have learned from the Soviet Union’s prior failure to completely censor soldiers’ relatives and changed tactics, instead using limited censorship and discreditation to keep these movements from building momentum.
• Russian milbloggers continued to fixate on a recent unsuccessful Russian mechanized assault near Novomykhailivka, Donetsk Oblast and highlight divisions it caused within the Russian information space, which are indicative of wider issues with the Russian military’s ability to adapt in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian actors conducted a drone strike against the Lukoil oil refinery in Volgograd Oblast on February 3.
• Ukrainian strikes reportedly temporarily slowed Russia’s production of Lancet loitering munitions.
• Russian state media confirmed the appointment of two new officials to senior positions in military-adjacent civilian organizations.
• Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances near Bakhmut amid continued positional engagements along the frontline.
• Russian soldiers imprisoned for refusing to fight in Ukraine are reportedly dying in Russian detention.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to militarize Ukrainian youth through the school system.

But then again the West gave every possible indication that they would not be bothered that much even if he did

Not so.

I'm right in the middle of the third episode of the excellent Putin vs the West. In addition to representations by other countries in 2021-2022, Jens Stoltenberg invited Russia to a crisis meeting of NATO in January 2022 to try to avert the Russian invasion of Ukraine, even at that late hour.

It's not that Putin didn't think Western countries would be bothered; it's that he didn't care.

And doesn't care, even now in February 2024, coming up for 2 years since his invasion and his dramatic failure to take Kyiv. His armed forces are being killed at a huge rate, his navy has suffered humiliations and he's even been challenged inside Russia by Prigozhin's army, but Putin is still fully committed to taking all of Ukraine and is showing no signs of winding down.

As Fiona Hill described it, re-building the Russian empire was Putin's lockdown project.

It's almost a behavioural tic, that Putin persistently blames other countries for his actions - whatever he's done. But it's no more true than with any other gaslighting abuser who cries "Look what you made me do!"

The programme is a very interesting watch.

Now moved on a week and Ben Wallace, then UK Defence Minister, made a last-ditch visit to Moscow to meet with Shoigu and Gerasimov to try to head off the invasion.

Wallace says of the Russian position in this meeting:

"So the assumptions that they had made were:
– the Ukrainians won't fight
– the Russian armed forces are close to invincible
– that the international community will fracture
– and in fact that the Ukrainians will welcome them.

And I remember saying to Mr Shoigu that they will fight, and he said, 'My mother is Ukrainian, you know, they won't.'

He also said he had no intention of invading."

Wallace describes this last Russian statement as vranyo, which we've talked about on these threads – ie the speaker lies, knowing that their audience knows they are lying.

OK, I've just twigged that the episode I was watching was ep 3 of series 1, which I'd recorded last February.

There's a new series 2, of 2 episodes, currently on BBC2 – next episode tomorrow (5 Jan). It's being repeated late at night, so thankfully I'll still be able to grab both episodes.

@PerkingFaintly
I need to watch it, sounds very interesting.

@PerkingFaintly
Do they give any predictions on where it is all going?

We'll need to watch series 2 to find out!!

But I think the consistent takeaway is: "Putin is always lying. Even when his lips aren't moving."

Also, Putin is clever. Megalomaniac, but very clever. Very, very skillful at manipulating people.

https://archive.ph/kjFNE

Thank you @FoolShapeHeart !

Here are some thoughts on strategies Ukraine shoul consider pursuing. There’s not much I’d disagree with.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-new-strategy-can-save-ukraine-war-with-russia-c46a7abe?st=i14ltut3m1cdybk&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

I watched it on iplayer and can't get over the barefaced lies

The clown nebenzya and the Belarus UN ambassador. It made me gasp at the sheer audacity

Gives me the rage that either he won't step aside, or the Democratic Party won't just tell him no. So worried about what will happen in the US.

I don't know why Ukraine didn't adopt this strategy earlier. Build impregnable defense lines and wait for the "black swan" on the Russian side.

@Natsku
The only way Biden can be dropped if he does a Mitch McConnell trick few times or maybe shakes some phantom hands again.

Gideon Rachman in the FT: "Trump's betrayal of Ukraine"

There are still many months to go before the US presidential election. But Donald Trump is already having a deeply malign effect on American foreign policy. At Trump’s behest, Republicans in Congress are blocking military aid for Ukraine.
Although the US Senate may agree an aid package this week, Republicans in the House of Representatives remain completely intransigent. As a result, it seems increasingly unlikely that military aid for Ukraine will get through Congress in the coming months — or even this year.
The consequences of that decision could be disastrous. Ukraine is already suffering from a shortage of ammunition — in particular artillery shells. That will become more acute this year, with increasingly dangerous results.
Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute, a frequent visitor to the frontline in Ukraine, says the situation there is now “extremely serious”. The ammunition shortage has already led to an increase in Ukrainian casualties. With no certainty about when new supplies of materiel will arrive, the Ukrainian military is finding it impossible to plan future operations.
The shortage of weaponry is also having an effect on the willingness of Ukrainians to volunteer for military service. The mounting pressure on the Kyiv government is part of the explanation for the public falling out between President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his commander-in-chief, Valeriy Zaluzhny.
One piece of positive news for Ukraine was last week’s agreement that the EU will provide €50bn in new financial support for the Ukrainian government. In a joint letter to the FT, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany and four other EU leaders also called for an increase in European military aid.
But European production lines are not yet ready to fill the munitions gap left by the Americans. That will take until at least 2025, and makes the second half of this year potentially very dangerous for Ukraine.
Watling believes that the consequences of the munitions shortage “will initially be felt slowly and then felt fast”. He warns that “when it reaches the point that the consequences are very obvious, it will already be too late”.
Trump and his Republican party supporters do not seem to care. They are apparently prepared to risk a Russian victory — if it even slightly increases Trump’s chance of defeating President Joe Biden in November.
Some of the Republican reluctance to pass new aid for Ukraine is driven by genuine scepticism about the war. But most of the foot-dragging is simply about Trump’s refusal to give Biden anything that looks like a “win” ahead of the presidential election.
Last year, the Republicans demanded that military aid for Ukraine be tied to new measures and money for border security in the US. The Democrats have agreed. But Trump and the Republicans are refusing to take yes for an answer. Trump evidently wants to run on the idea that Biden has presided over chaos and failure — stretching from the southern border to Kabul and Kyiv.
If the freedom of Ukraine and the security of Europe are collateral damage in Trump’s bid to win back the White House, the former president seems to regard that as a price worth paying.
It is even possible that he would welcome a Ukrainian defeat — if it came in time for the presidential election and enabled him to bash home his favourite claims about the Biden administration’s weakness and failure.
Of course, Trump could not do any of this on his own. The connivance of Republicans in Congress is critical. Trump’s victories in the presidential primaries have persuaded most Republicans — always feeble in their opposition to him — that they need to fall in line even more slavishly. If he continues to demand that no aid for Ukraine goes through Congress, Republicans in the House of Representatives will almost certainly deliver for him.
Those in Washington who take American global leadership seriously are understandably aghast. Senator Mark Warner, the head of the Senate Intelligence Committee, wrote on X that “If we don’t honour our commitment to Ukraine, there’s not a single nation — friend or foe — that will fully trust us again.” Bill Burns, director of the CIA, has said that for the US to abandon Ukraine now would be a mistake of “historic proportions”. The decision would be all the more incomprehensible because — in contrast to the wars in Vietnam or Afghanistan — the US military is not doing the fighting and dying.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin must be unable to believe his luck. Except, in some ways, it is not luck but the pay-off for a long-term Russian investment. Trump calls allegations that the Kremlin worked to get him elected in 2016 “the Russia hoax”. But there is plenty of evidence of Moscow’s interference designed to favour Trump — such as the hacking and release of internal Democratic party emails in the middle of the 2016 campaign.
Even now, Putin takes any opportunity he can to stroke Trump’s out-of-control ego. Russian school textbooks have endorsed Trump’s favourite conspiracy theory that the 2020 US presidential election was stolen.
Putin has made a long-term bet on Trump. Unless there is a last-minute change of heart in Congress, that wager may finally pay out — on the battlefields of Ukraine.

Thank you for that article, @MagicFox