Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

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Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Did you listen to the latest unherd podcast though? They were convinced trump is going to win. Twitter seems very evenly divided too so it's impossible to tell - I'm afraid I think it will be v v close

I haven’t listened yet but will. To be honest, and it might be naive, I just don’t see Trump winning. He would need to get more votes than he did in 2020 and I think that’s unlikely. He has a very persistent very loyal, and very vocal base but that hasn't substantially changed in size since 2020.

Biden’s team have announced they’re hitting the campaign trail on the back of the SOU address momentum. The Biden we saw last night beat Trump before and I believe can do so again.

Love how positive you are Jelly ❤️fingers crossed

That said I do think it’ll be close.

To reassure @MagicFox - I think Twitter is becoming more and more of a cesspool for angry people - alongside being a good medium for disseminating important information (like road or school closures) , with a few honourable exceptions (Dh tells me that Threads is much nicer )

So outwith those official information accounts, the "ordinary" pundits on Twitter consist of a disproportionate number of angry MAGA types (and Brexiters here in the UK), so Twitter being evenly divided is actually a good sign

I would agree. I actively avoid Twitter now unless it’s to look for something specific. It adds very little and is overly alarmist.

So true. Filter heavily too.

Thanks – I should have got that! You folks have mentioned it often enough!

You're all totally right!

I follow some good people but generally never look at comments; they are filled to the brim with the floating stuff.

It's too close to call this far out, but at the moment, Trump is consistently polling better than Biden.

It's really going to come down to the swing voters and independents. There are more than enough of them to push the results either way.

How long do you reckon before any bump from the SOUA has an impact on polls? Seems like exit polls following the speech were largely positive.

Fingers crossed the independent voters aren’t absolute nutters and vote against Trump if nothing else.

We'll have polling sometime next week that will reflect the short-term impact of the SOU address. The longer-term impact is anyone's guess; it might flip the race, and it might not.

Keep an eye out here for the latest polling results.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

Amazing thank you!

You're quite welcome. 538 is a brilliant website and indispensable for us political nerds. 😁

The national polls are certainly very important at this stage, but the way the electoral college works, the outcome will be determined in a few swing states where the polls are very close. As the election nears, polling will focus on voter preferences in those states. 538 will have all of those polls as they come out.

Great interview with one of our favourites, Fiona Hill, on Ukrainecast this morning

Main takeaway from my pov was what we know: Europe needs to step up to support Ukraine AND we need robust collective defence (without the US). This means increased cooperation and increased defence spending.

We are seeing Europe ramp up in this regard but I worry that the piecemeal nature of the EU and its bureaucracy might hamper collective action. I'm not sure what the solution to this is but I don't think it's either European army thing.

Defence spending: disappointed in the UK here. Hoping for a Labour govt that take it seriously

I actually thought Fiona was less negative than many others.

We are seeing Europe ramp up in this regard but I worry that the piecemeal nature of the EU and its bureaucracy might hamper collective action.

Same here. In the end, each area of land in the EU sees itself as its own country first and European second, whereas I get the impression that in the US (very broadly) people see themselves as American first and (eg) Ohian second. (again, very broadly).

For the EU to really pull together and not bicker for position, the countries need to change the self-perception. Not sure it will happen, but it could over time I hope.

@DancesWithDucks

In the end, each area of land in the EU sees itself as its own country first and European second, whereas I get the impression that in the US (very broadly) people see themselves as American first and (eg) Ohian second. (again, very broadly).

Yep, and of course that’s quite logical because unlike the USA the EU really is a collection of sovereign nations (a point that came up time and time again in the Brexit debate) who have generally retained the right ultimately to do their own thing when it comes to matters such as defence, healthcare,

For example years the French have done their own thing when it comes to defence procurement, nuclear posture, and deployments overseas without feeling the need to seek approval from Brussels, similar for other EU states.

I’m afraid changing the whole set up overnight is going to a hell of a long time, even if there is the will to do it.

But that would be the case. At the end of the day the EU is an economic alliance of sovereign nations. The US is one sovereign nation made up of individual states, the 2 aren’t really comparable.

New thread for when we need it here: Ukraine Invasion: Part 48 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/5024628-ukraine-invasion-part-48

Do we need to let mnethq about the new thread so they can put the same controls in as they did on this one?

Good point will do

Ill do the roundup on the new thread