Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Reporting for duty.

Thanks @MagicFox

Thank you @MagicFox for keeping these going, and ducks and blueshoes for the Daily updates.
Thanks in advance to Desdemona for stepping into blue shoes, well, shoes.

Thanks for new thread @MagicFox

Thanks @MagicFox =)

I see they’re all going crazy on another conscription thread. Funny how it’s okay when it’s other people’s children that are dying.

Good work - battling those trolls is a horrible business. Wears you out, which ofc is what they want.

For now the updates will be on the previous thread as there's still quite a few posts to go.

Article about why defence spending needs to be increased and why (gaming and anticipating a Russian attack on a NATO territory) : www.politico.eu/article/europe-trump-ukraine-war-russia-nato-vladimir-putin/

In short, if the Pax Americana ends we're a bit fucked.

Can somebody explain to me why, though, Putin would attack a NATO state rather than a non-nato one in this scenario? Surely the latter is much easier. Is the idea that it's about undermining the alliance?

Checking in just in case I miss the crossover (again)

PM

@MagicFox thanks for the new thread and @L1ttledrummergirl

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-31-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces struck Russian targets in the vicinity of Belbek airfield in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea on January 31.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin doubled down on his maximalist and purposefully vague territorial objectives in Ukraine on January 31.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces conducted a prisoner-of-war (POW) exchange on January 31, exchanging 195 Russian POWs for 207 Ukrainian POWs.
• The European Union (EU) will reportedly fall short of its promise to provide Ukraine with one million artillery shells by March 1, 2024, as European leaders call on EU member states to intensify deliveries of ammunition to Ukraine.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that Russian-Chinese relations are at their “best period in their history” in a January 31 call with Chinese Defense Minister Admiral Dong Jun.
• Kremlin officials and mouthpieces continued rhetorical efforts to prevent Moldova’s integration into the EU and to set information conditions to justify future Russian aggression against Moldova.
• The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that it recently conducted a cyberattack on a Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) communications server.
• Estonian Defense Forces Commander General Martin Herem stated that Russia may be behind recent GPS jamming in the Baltic region.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, and southwest of Donetsk City amid positional engagements along the entire line of contact on January 31.
• Russian forces reportedly formed a “secret” battalion of penal recruits to conduct offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast but are reportedly disbanding the battalion.
• Russian and occupation officials continue efforts to erase Ukrainian cultural and ethnic identity in occupied territories.

Checking in, thanks for the new thread

Checking in too. Thank you

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-1-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi presented an overarching strategy to seize the theater-wide initiative in Ukraine and retain it to facilitate Ukrainian battlefield victories despite Russia’s numerical advantages in manpower and materiel. Zaluzhnyi’s strategy aims to offset Ukraine’s existing challenges and pursue advantages over the Russian military through widespread technological innovation and adaptation.
• Ukrainian forces successfully struck and sunk a Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) vessel in the Black Sea near occupied Crimea on the night of January 31 to February 1.
• Russian milbloggers continued to voice frustrations about Russian forces’ continued tactical blunders during offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast.
• The European Union (EU) unanimously approved a financial support package for Ukraine for 2024 ­­– 2027.
• EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Joseph Borrell stated that the European Union (EU) will not be able to send the promised one million shells to Ukraine by March 2024, but is planning to fulfill this promise by the end of 2024.
• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov appointed another one of his children to a senior position in the Chechen government as of January 31.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kupyansk, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on February 1.
• Turkish banks have reportedly started closing Russian companies’ accounts due to the threat of US secondary sanctions.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin highlighted Russian plans to integrate occupied territories of Ukraine into Russia over the next six years.

Good grief you were dedicated last night, posting past 1am! :) thanks!

Haha I am a night owl

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

️Azov commander says https://kyivindependent.com/azov-commander-says-more-than-900-defenders-of-mariupol-remain-in-captivity/ more than 900 defenders of Mariupol remain in captivity.

After a months-long delay, the U.S. Senate is set to vote next week on a proposed Ukraine-Israel aid package, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer announced on Feb. 1. https://kyivindependent.com/us-senate-to-vote-on-ukraine-aid-package-next-week-2/ [@MissConductUS fingers, toes and anything and everything else crossed. D'you think it might pass?]

AfD’s rise in Germany set to disrupt Berlin’s lead in supporting Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/what-the-rise-of-germanys-far-right-afd-party-means-for-ukraine/
Since its founding in 2013, Alternative for Germany (AfD) has steadily grown from a fringe opposition party to "the largest pro-Russian far-right party in Europe," as one expert on far-right movements would describe it. [But within the last 3 weeks, hundreds of thousands of Germans hit the streets to protest against AfD]

⚡️ Media: Ukrainian-born advisor to far-right German AfD lawmaker allegedly FSB agent https://kyivindependent.com/media-ukrainian-born-advisor-to-far-right-german-afd-lawmaker-allegedly-fsb-agent/

⚡️White House won't discuss https://kyivindependent.com/white-house-wont-discuss-possibility-of-separating-aid-to-ukraine-from-security-bill/ separating aid to Ukraine from security bill.

Some Turkish banks are reportedly closing accounts associated with Russian businesses for fear of triggering secondary sanctions from the United States. https://kyivindependent.com/isw-turkish-banks-close-russian-accounts-due-to-sanctions-threat/

⚡️Russia closes https://kyivindependent.com/russia-closes-border-crossing-with-estonia/ border crossing with Estonia to vehicles.

⚡️Reuters: China cautions Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-china-cautions-ukraine-over-inclusion-of-chinese-companies-in-sponsors-of-war-list/ over inclusion of Chinese companies in 'sponsors of war' list.
"The (Chinese) ambassador said that all this (sponsors of war list) could have a negative impact on our relations," an unnamed Ukrainian source told Reuters

⚡️Media: Russia condemns https://kyivindependent.com/media-russia-condemns-ecuadors-decision-to-send-russian-military-equipment-to-us-for-ukraine/ Ecuador's decision to send Russian military equipment to US for Ukraine.

Armenia's defense strategy cannot rely on Russia as it used to, and Yerevan needs to more closely examine security relations with the U.S., France, India, and other countries, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Feb. 1, the Armenpress news agency reported. https://kyivindependent.com/pashinyan-armenia-cannot-rely-on-russia-needs-to-consider-other-partners/

⚡️Canadian foreign minister arrives https://kyivindependent.com/canadian-foreign-minister-arrives-in-kyiv-meets-kuleba/ in Kyiv, meets Kuleba.

⚡️Orban says he agreed https://kyivindependent.com/orban-says-he-agreed-to-54-billion-eu-funding-package/ to $54 billion EU funding package for Ukraine due to control mechanism so that Hungary's funds "will not end up in Ukraine.", guarantees on Hungary's funds.

Prozorro is Ukraine's electronic public procurement system, designed to increase transparency and competition in the bidding process.
https://kyivindependent.com/government-agrees-to-carry-out-defense-procurement-through-prozorro-system/

⚡️Russia ignores Ukraine's appeal https://kyivindependent.com/russia-ignores-ukraines-application-to-return-bodies-of-pows-allegedly-killed-in-il-76-crash/ to return bodies of POWs Moscow says are killed in Il-76 crash.

⚡️Russian courts convict https://kyivindependent.com/russian-courts-convict-first-people-under-new-anti-lgbt-law/ first people under new anti-LGBT law.
A court in Volgograd Oblast on Feb. 1 found a defendant known as Artyom P. guilty of “displaying the symbols of an extremist organisation” after he posted a picture of an LBGT flag online. [Heaven help gay people now in Russia]

Ex-Supreme Court chief charged with bribery released on bail https://kyivindependent.com/ex-supreme-court-chairmans-release/ can return to work. Vsevolod Kniaziev, former chairman of the Supreme Court and a suspect in a bribery case, was released from detention after paying Hr 18 million bail ($450,000) on Jan. 31.

⚡️Russian drone attack traps https://kyivindependent.com/russian-drone-attack-traps-miners-causes-power-loss-in-kryvyi-rih/ miners, causes power loss in Kryvyi Rih. ⚡️ Update: All miners trapped https://kyivindependent.com/update-miners-trapped-after-kryvyi-rih-drone-attack-rescued/ after Kryvyi Rih drone attack rescued.

⚡️Minister: 112 Russian tanks worth $300 million destroyed or disabled https://kyivindependent.com/minister-112-russian-tanks-worth-300-million-destroyed-or-disabled-by-national-guard-in-january/ by National Guard in January.

⚡️Military intelligence denies https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-denies-arestovych-could-leave-ukraine-thanks-to-letter/ Oleksiy Arestovych, a controversial blogger and former president's office aide, could leave Ukraine with their permission.

Putin said that over the next six years, Ukraine's illegally occupied regions "must reach the all-Russia level" by developing in certain "key areas." https://kyivindependent.com/putin-occupied-ukrainian-regions-to-be-integrated-with-russia-by-2030/ [What, all toilets in regional areas must be removed from interiors and placed in an outhouse?]

⚡️Court seizes https://kyivindependent.com/court-seizes-former-pro-russian-lawmaker-tsaryovs-property-worth-over-13-million/ pro-Russian politician Tsaryov's property worth over $13 million.

Russian forces struck the nationally significant 18th-century historical site of Kamianska Sich in Kherson Oblast with three powerful hits, the Culture Ministry reported on Feb 2. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-targets-18th-century-national-monument-of-cossack-period-in-kherson-oblast/

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 2, 2024
■ Big equipment losses include the missile boat 'Ivanovets' while casualties are below 7-day average
■ Strikes above average, few engagements but many settlements under fire
■ Oryx: 728added, 30-day ratio rises to 2.9x
■ KIU: +10 officers, 4.8 per day in the last 4 batches

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights Thread

🇩🇪 Bundestag approves state budget with military aid for Ukraine in the amount of approximately €7.6 billion.

There were five hits at the Belbek airfield in the temporarily occupied Crimea, according to the Operational Command “Pivden” (“South”).

The EU leaders did not decide on the creation of a special fund for military support for Ukraine at the summit, but European Council President Michel says that the progress has been made.
The issue of creating a €20 billion fund for four years is expected to be resolved by March.

Drone attacks by the Security Service of Ukraine reduced the export of oil products from Russia, — Reuters
Successful drone attacks by the Security Service of Ukraine on large oil refining enterprises reduced Russian exports of petroleum products by almost a third.
According to Reuters, in January, gasoline exports fell by 37%, diesel exports by 23%.

According to Forbes, an explosion on August 9 at the Zagorsky Optical and Mechanical Plant near Moscow, which produces Russian Lancet drones, disrupted their production and was attributed to a Ukrainian drone attack. The explosion potentially impacted the supply chain for Lancet drones, affecting the production of cameras used in these unmanned aerial vehicles.

Over the past year, 67 UAV models were codified, and 58 received government contracts. Overall, more than 200 Ukrainian companies are operating in the UAV or drone services and products market, — Minister of Digital Transformation of Ukraine, Mykhailo Fedorov.

Zelenskyy on €50 billion for Ukraine: it is equally important as military aid and sanctions against Russia.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked EU leaders for creating a €50 billion fund for Ukraine.

🇪🇺The EU stated that Ukraine will be able to receive funds under the €50 billion Ukraine Facility program agreed at the summit, subject to a number of preconditions.
“A precondition for the support for Ukraine under the Facility shall be that Ukraine continues to uphold and respect effective democratic mechanisms, including a multi-party parliamentary system, and the rule of law, and to guarantee respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities,” — the summit's conclusions state

The head of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Romania, Gheorghiță Vlad, has expressed the view that the Romanian population, like all residents of Europe, should be prepared for the potential expansion of Russian aggression beyond the borders of Ukraine.

Canada and Ukraine are creating an international coalition that will work on the return to Ukraine of children who were forcibly removed from the occupied territories to other occupied regions or to Russia, announced the heads of foreign affairs of Canada and Ukraine, Melanie Jolie and Dmytro Kuleba

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

China is threatening Ukraine with "negative consequences for bilateral relations" because the NACP has added a number of Chinese companies to the list of war sponsors.
Earlier, the NACP added 14 Chinese companies to the list of war sponsors, including Alibaba Group, Xiaomi Corporation, and others.

The EU's artillery ammunition production capacity should reach 1.4 million shells in 2024 and grow to 2 million in the following year, European Commissioner for Internal Market Thierry Breton said https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-to-ukraine-half-is-better-than-nothing-when-it-comes-to-ammunition/

🇷🇺🇧🇾 Latvia has banned its national sports teams from playing against the national teams of Russia and Belarus at the legislative level. The ban also applies to competitions in which Russians and Belarusians play under a neutral flag.

Russia imported high-tech equipment from Taiwan. The Russian company I Machine Technology received $20 million worth of computer numerical control (CNC) machines from Taiwan's I Machine Tools in 2023, according to a WP investigation (https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2024/02/01/taiwan-russia-sanctions-cnc/
Last year, I Machine Technology's largest client was the Avangard Moscow Machine-Building Plant, a supplier of missiles for the S-400 air defense system. The Russian company also tried to supply equipment to an enterprise that mass-produces attack drones.
Initially, the machines were shipped directly from Taiwan to Russia, but after the Taiwanese government imposed sanctions, the goods were shipped via a detour through Turkey or China.

Armin Körper, a journalist for the German TV channel ZDF, who heads the Moscow bureau, filmed a report in occupied Mariupol
In the report, he said that most residents support Russia, the city is being rebuilt and populated by Russians. In his report, Körper did not mention who destroyed the city.

DIU intercepted call:
Russian serviceman complaining about being sent into assault near Avdiivka without artillery support, bashing his battalion commander. Mentions bodies of the dead which nobody picked up for over a month.

Zaluzhnyi emphasized the partial monopolization of the defense industry and imperfect legislation, which lead to problems with weapons production in Ukraine.
The Commander-in-Chief also believes that Ukraine should "recognize the significant advantage the enemy has in mobilizing human resources and how this correlates with the inability of state institutions in Ukraine to increase the level of manning of Ukrainian Armed Forces without taking unpopular measures."

Here's a bit of good news. Ukraine is finally getting Boeing's GLSDBs shipped in quantity. Since they've announced it, they are likely already in place. They were paid for last February when the contract was given to Boeing, so the current funding mess isn't an issue.

They won't be a game changer, but they will really expand the long-range fire options for the Ukrainians and hurt Russian logistics.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraines-new-100-mile-bomb-boeing-is-ready-sources-say-2024-01-30/

Thanks for the new thread, and to all you stalwart posters.

Apologies as this is a bit off topic. @notimagain, I assume you’re following the news from the Middle East. I was a bit surprised that they used B-1B strategic bombers based in the U.S. I didn’t think the environment would be judged permissive enough. Did anything about it catch your eye?

https://www.twz.com/news-features/u-s-strikes-back-at-iranian-backed-militia-targets-in-iraq-syria

I have followed this long term thread for some time and I was wondering about contributors opinion on the long term effect on world politics of this conflict? I feel currently it is time for the West to galvanize itself in supporting Ukriane as surely a comprehensive defeat of Russia is the only way to prevent a more uncertain world for futures genrati ons. I think any sort of military success for Russia in Ukraine will in time embolden it time to ultimately make incursions into another neighbouring state to test NATO resolve and certainly we would be in very shaky territoty. Would Russia be thinking 'well NATO were prepared to ultimately allow some partial conquering of Ukraine so will they really defend to the maximum Estonia or Fin land? Will the US precipitate WW3 over an incursion into Fin land?

It just seems to me that Ukraine is the point where we must stop Russian aggression and that must include maximal goals of regaining Ukranian sovreignty. Yes it will be long and yes there has to be in my opinion a more coherent supply of arms and training in scale but surely this has to the Wests foreign policy or what really are we spending our defence budgets on?