Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Trump does seem to be an unmitigated evil, really. Would his horrible influence cease even if he is imprisoned or dies, though? If it would, then I can hope hard for one or the other to happen soon; if it wouldn't, well, I can still hope for one or the other to happen soon but there will be less point.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-4-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russia's reported reserve concentrations throughout Ukraine largely align with Russia’s assessed priorities along the front, although they are not necessarily indicative of future Russian operations.
• The Russian defense industrial base (DIB) is unlikely able to fully support Russia’s reserve manpower despite Russia’s ability to sustain its current tempo of operations and ongoing efforts to expand the Russian DIB.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the frontline near Robotyne, Zaporizhia Oblast and the Ukrainian Eastern Air Command in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on February 4.
• Russian milbloggers continued to criticize Russian authorities’ failure to properly equip Russian forces with drones and electronic warfare (EW) systems in response to a recent unsuccessful Russian mechanized assault near Novomykhailivka, Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to face the authoritarian’s dilemma, whereby his authoritarian regime is itself systematically preventing him from receiving accurate information about military-political realities in Russia. [ makes you wonder]
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.
• Kremlin newswire TASS reported on February 4 that Vladimir Oblast will be a patron of the new Knyaz Pozharsky Borei-A class nuclear submarine.
• Ukrainian officials continue international efforts aimed at returning Ukrainian citizens whom Russian authorities illegally deported to Russia.

The hope that he gets a felony conviction and prison sentence is why Nikki Haley is staying in the race. That would probably turn the tide against him.

What do we make of the rumours that Tucker Carlson is in Moscow to interview Putin? Honestly they can just keep him, hideous little man!

On a more serious note he has the ear of a lot of the more extreme MAGA republicans.

Wut?

Is Tucker Carlson in Moscow for Putin? The pro-Kremlin crowd hopes so – POLITICO

If the US doesn't watch out, it's going to be quietly owned by Russia soon.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Rai News: Zelensky says https://kyivindependent.com/rai-news-zelensky-says-leadership-reset-is-necessary/ leadership reset is necessary.
Responding to a question about a rumored dismissal of Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, President Zelensky said he had a serious reset in mind that was not about a single person but about the general direction of the country’s leadership.

⚡️Senate unveils https://kyivindependent.com/senate-unveils-border-deal-that-includes-60-billion-in-ukraine-aid/ border deal that includes $60 billion in Ukraine aid.
The bill totals $118.2 billion, with $60 billion allocated to support Ukraine's security needs. The Senate is expected to hold a vote on the aid package no later than Feb. 7.
The bill will likely face stiff opposition from hard-line Republicans in the House, where Speaker Mike Johnson warned any agreement would be "dead on arrival."

⚡️ Speaker Johnson says https://kyivindependent.com/speaker-johnson-says-bill-on-ukraine-aid-border-security-worse-than-expected/ bill on Ukraine aid, border security 'worse than expected.'

⚡️ Russia's Central Election Commission ruled on Feb. 5 that 15% of signatures collected by anti-war politician Boris Nadezhdin, who is a potential candidate in the upcoming Russian presidential election, were invalid.
If more than 5% of signatures are deemed invalid, the prospective candidate is not allowed to be registered on the ballot. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-election-commission-rules-that-too-many-signatures/

Facing its own domestic budget issues, Germany has voiced opposition to proposed reforms to the European Peace Facility (EPF), the EU's funding mechanism for sustaining European military supplies to Ukraine, which may threaten the timely delivery of weapons to Ukraine, the Financial Times (FT) reported on Feb. 5, citing sources. https://kyivindependent.com/ft-german-hesitation-over-proposed-reforms-to-eu-military-fund-for-ukraine-could-delay-weapons-deliveries/

⚡️ Zelensky appoints https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-replaces-zaporizhzhia-oblast-governor/ exiled Melitopol mayor Ivan Fedorov as Zaporizhzhia Oblast governor.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Feb. 5 that he could not comment on U.S. far-right political commentator Tucker Carlson's reported visit to Moscow or speculation that Carlson was there to interview Putin. https://kyivindependent.com/kremlin-declines-to-comment-on-us-far-right-journalist-carlsons-alleged-visit-to-moscow/

⚡️ Georgian authorities seize explosives allegedly https://kyivindependent.com/georgian-authorities-seize-explosives/ in transit from Ukraine to Russia for an alleged "terrorist attack" supposedly planned to take place in the Russian city of Voronezh.

⚡️ Kazakh government resigns, President Tokayev appoints new PM. https://kyivindependent.com/kazakh-government-resigns-president-tokayev-appoints-new-pm/

⚡️ Yandex NV, the Dutch parent company of the Russian tech giant and search engine Yandex, will restructure and sell its Russian businesses in a deal worth $5.2 billion, the company announced in a press release on Feb. 5. https://kyivindependent.com/dutch-parent-company-yandex-restructuring/

⚡️ Poland to increase https://kyivindependent.com/poland-to-increase-inspections-of-ukrainian-food-products/ inspections of Ukrainian food products at border.
Poland will clamp down on poor-quality Ukrainian agricultural imports into Poland, the Polish Agricultural Ministry wrote on X on Feb. 4.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the nations will discuss "new methods" of shipping Ukrainian grain products following Moscow's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative in July 2023. https://kyivindependent.com/turkey-and-russia-to-discuss-new-mechanism-for-shipping-ukrainian-grain/

Zelensky visited Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade near the front-line town of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on Feb. 4. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-visits-front-line-troops-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast/

The upcoming 13th round of EU sanctions against Russia will likely focus on individuals and smaller companies and will not include new import bans, Reuters reported on Feb. 5, citing unnamed diplomats. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-13th-eu-sanctions-package-against-russia-not-likely-to-include-new-import-bans/

⚡️ Finnish plant to hike ammunition https://kyivindependent.com/finnish-plant-to-hike-ammunition-production-fivefold-due-to-russias-war-in-ukraine/ production fivefold. The increase in production at the factory in southwestern Finland’s city of Sastamala, which manufactures artillery shell casings, is related to the war in Ukraine, as artillery shells play a key role in Finland's aid to Ukraine.

⚡️Reshuffling Ukrainian army leadership is up to Zelensky, U.S. National Security Advisor JakeSullivan says https://kyivindependent.com/reshuffling-ukrainian-army-leadership-is-up-to-zelensky-sullivan-says/

⚡️ Zelensky asks parliament to prolong martial law https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-asks-parliament-to-prolong-martial-law-mobilization-2/ mobilization.

⚡️ British lawmakers caution that UK military remains unprepared https://kyivindependent.com/uk-lawmakers-caution-that-uk-military-remain-unprepared-for-all-out-war/ for all-out war.

A senior Russian-installed official in occupied Luhansk Oblast was killed in an alleged attack against occupied Lysychansk on Feb. 3, said Leonid Pasechnik, the head of Russian occupation authorities in Luhansk Oblast, on Feb. 5. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-claims-attack-on-occupied-lysychansk/

⚡️Ukrainian Supreme Court official charged https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-supreme-court-official-detained-for-suspected-pro-russian/ with supporting Russian invasion.

⚡️ Russia restricts Ecuador's banana exports https://kyivindependent.com/russia-restricts-ecuadors-banana-exports-amid-dispute-over-military-supplies-to-ukraine/ amid dispute over military supplies to US for Ukraine. The Ecuadorian government announced in January that it would send what it called "Ukrainian and Russian scrap metal" to the U.S. in exchange for modern equipment worth $200 million.

⚡️Guardian: Russia ‘re-educates’ deported https://kyivindependent.com/guardian-russia-re-educates-deported-ukrainian-children/ Ukrainian children.

⚡️ Ukrainian powerlifter Oleksandr Bilokon killed https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-athlete-oleksandr-bilokon-killed-in-action/ in action.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - FEB 5, 2024
■ More combat engagements & settlements under fire, but strikes on both sides remain below 7-day average
■ Casualties & equipment losses also below average
■ Losses in recent days keep 7-day artillery losses at their highest this year however

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

German politicians are informally discussing NATO's future without the United States as a leader due to concerns about a potential return of President Donald Trump, reports The New York Times.

In Russia, the number of air accidents involving civilian aircraft is rapidly increasing due to wear and tear of equipment and malfunctions. The WSJ writes that these are the consequences of Western sanctions — after a full-scale invasion, foreign companies are prohibited from servicing aircraft of Russian airlines and supplying them with spare parts.
In Russia, the number of air accidents involving civilian aircraft is rapidly increasing due to wear and tear of equipment and malfunctions. The WSJ writes that these are the consequences of Western sanctions — after a full-scale invasion, foreign companies are prohibited from servicing aircraft of Russian airlines and supplying them with spare parts.
The newspaper writes that in 2023 there were at least 74 incidents with passenger planes in Russia, while in 2022 there were 36.
In November 2023, Ukrainian intelligence announced that it had received secret data from "Rosaviation". They testified about the bad condition of the planes. The documents indicated a much higher number of air incidents for 2023 — more than 200.

The Netherlands is preparing six more F-16 fighter jets for delivery to Ukraine, Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said.
"Thus, the number of fighter jets that Ukraine will receive will increase to 24. Ukraine's superiority in the air is important for countering Russian aggression," she wrote on the X social network.

Evacuating from the front line on ATVs may not be the invention of the century, but it showcases the tool's effectiveness in specific conditions and the fearlessness of our soldiers.
Currently, members of the "Rubizh" Brigade are bravely extracting the wounded and fallen from the battlefield amidst enemy fire and evading Russian drones.

🇵🇹 Portuguese Foreign Minister João Gomes Cravinho arrived on a visit to Ukraine together with the Minister of Education João Costa.

A Mi-8 EMERCOM helicopter crashed in Russia, claiming the lives of the entire crew. Simultaneously, another plane made an emergency landing, as reported by Russian media.

French dog trainers shared their experience and special equipment with Ukrainian specialists.
A three-week training course for canine specialists of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine ended in France.
The rescuers also received five Belgian Malinois shepherd dogs, a specialized car with a trailer and small mechanization equipment.

In January 2024, Ukraine achieved a record physical export volume during the time of the large-scale invasion — domestic producers exported 12 million tons of products

Ukrainians have chosen the country's next representative at Eurovision. Alyona Alyona & Jerry Heil with their track Teresa & Maria will go to Eurovision 2024 from Ukraine.

@DancesWithDucks

French dog trainers shared their experience and special equipment with Ukrainian specialists.
A three-week training course for canine specialists of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine ended in France.
The rescuers also received five Belgian Malinois shepherd dogs, a specialized car with a trailer and small mechanization equipment.

Sounds like that's this story - hopefully this link will work:

https://www.lindependant.fr/2024/02/04/guerre-en-ukraine-maltraites-recuperes-a-la-fourriere-sauves-de-leuthanasie-ces-chiens-que-la-france-a-formes-pour-les-secours-ukrainiens-11743929.php

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇵🇱Polish military warns https://www.wprost.pl/kraj/11571871/wojsko-wydalo-ostrzezenie-dla-wschodniej-centralnej-polski-nieplanowane-dzialania-w-powietrzu.html** civil aviation of "possible activation of military aviation" along the border with Ukraine, Belarus, Russia (Königsberg region) and Lithuania - Wprost

Approximately 26% of Ukraine's territory is still under Russian occupation, but the Russian army is no longer able to make significant advances, the president said in an interview https://www.raiplay.it/video/2024/02/Tg1-Speciale-Lintervista-in-esclusiva-al-Presidente-Zelensky-04022024-10513cec-ed08-4f83-94cd-0e7f0fb50296.html with Italian TV channel Rai 1.

🇹🇼 Taiwan has imposed https://www.trade.gov.tw/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeID=40&pid=777924&dl_DateRange=all&txt_SD=&txt_ED=&txt_Keyword=&pageindex=1&history= sanctions against the Russian company I Machine, which was involved in a WP investigation into the import of Taiwanese machine tools to Russia
Taiwanese companies are now banned from supplying I Machine with their goods. In this way, Taiwan is protecting the international reputation of its manufacturers and preventing Russia from using Taiwanese technology in its weapons. The Ministry of Economy also increased the fine for illegal exports to Russia and Belarus 15 times.

⚡️⚡️An Mi-8 rescue helicopter with three crew members disappeared from radar during a training flight in Karelia
Now other rescuers are looking for it, according to Kremlin media.

🇫🇷🇷🇺 The French Foreign Ministry summons https://www.bfmtv.com/international/asie/russie/guerre-en-ukraine-l-ambassadeur-de-russie-en-france-convoque-au-quai-d-orsay_AD-202402050135.html Russian Ambassador Alexei Meshkov over the death of two French volunteers during the shelling of Beryslav (Kherson region).

Such a powerful poster by the activists in Stockholm🇸🇪
Make Russia pay!

It's crazy isn't it?! He should be arrested the minute he touches back down in the US. Despicable.

I listened the the most frustrating podcast this morning (The Moment of Truth) where the host failed to challenge the speaker (pro-US isolation) who uncomplicatedly compared what the US is going in ukraine with what it did in Iraq and Afghanistan and gleefully suggested that if Europe didn't step up then you just have to look at the map to see where Russia will go next. Wtf?! Why can't they see that preventing Russian expansionism is in the US interest? I feel like the world is going crazy, honestly. Podcast link here if you're interested, I was raging all the way through: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/moment-of-truth/id1555257529?i=1000644199993

Six extra F-16s from the Dutch, no definite timescale and usual caveats about suitable infrastructure etc needing to be in place.

Link here , Google translate more than adequate:

https://nos.nl/collectie/13965/artikel/2507667-nederland-geeft-zes-extra-f-16-straaljagers-aan-oekraine

Talking of the NOS, two NOS journalists were arrested yesterday at a mothers' demo against the war in Moscow. Released later.

Does anybody have any hope in Labour's proposed defence policy? Assuming they're in at the next election I hope they stand by proposals to up defence cooperation and spending.

We clearly can't rely on the US. I'm gobsmacked listening to eg elbridge colby that Europe would just be abandoned in the event of further Russian expansionism. That they'd participate in nothing more than a "dormant NATO." I just can't believe this shift or their inability to see how that reflects on US credibility, values and power. We're meant to be devoted allies! I honestly wake up feeling sick about the prospect of the US elections. And Mike Johnson 🤢

I think that the world has changed and it seems increasingly unlikely that the old alliances will hold.

Europe needs to look to itself. Luckily the Baltic countries and Germany do seem to be working towards it.

But the truth is that US protection and its nuclear umbrella have kept Europe safe. With that gone, Europe is left to deal with a revanchist nuclear power. Where does that end up? A new iron curtain? A ww2 style European conflict? I'm struggling to follow through with the actual workability of that

I hadn't heard about any recent remarks from Colby, so I found this from three days ago, which is what I'm assuming MagicFox is referring to:

“The United States is not in a position to continue to play an overwhelming leading role in Europe at the same time as it’s challenged in Asia, not to mention the Middle East,” he told UnHerd. “So I think prudence really dictates for Europe a greater degree of readiness.”

The US has been saying for at least a decade that Europe needs to improve combat readiness. That's what the widely ignored 2% of GDP target was all about. I don't think many Europeans appreciate how cynical the underspending on defense makes them look. It's not just cheeky; it's also saying that it's okay for lots of American soldiers to die defending Germany as long as not many German soldiers have to take the same risk.

There are typically 80-100k American troops stationed in Europe. If a shooting war starts, we'd already be in it. And Russia needs 3-5 years to rebuild its army.

He's been even more strident on Twitter. Thing is, i agree about the defence spending. And I think we can see (finally) a move to rectify that across the EU. What I find hard to stomach is the idea that if Russia attacked a NATO country, the US would not honour its commitment to the alliance. This seems like really dangerous signalling and a green light to Russia

What is needed is a robust European defence AND a related strong understanding that the US is committed to NATO in the event of Russian aggression

I don't agree with him that the US would somehow walk away from an active conflict in Europe. Note that he's a "former deputy assistant secretary of defense" under Trump. So, it's not a top role, and now slogging it as a pundit. And he's certainly gotten some attention, which was his intention.

Trump does have form for betraying allies of the United States, after all.

I think he's set for a top role if trump gets in. I long to believe you re not walking away if there was an active conflict but under trump I have little confidence. I can't believe it's come to this. I was so shocked by that podium speech where he threatened Nikki H if she didn't withdraw. I'm just flabbergasted that he might be in control of such a powerful country. He acts like a fascist. Sorry, I'm in a bit of an aghast state this eve 😂

From Mike Pompeo, Trump's former Secretary of State

Trump's inclinations on this subject and his penchant for chaos are why Congress passed a law last year that clarified that he could not pull the US out of NATO without congressional approval. It's a treaty obligation, so he never had that authority in the first place, but no harm in making it a bit clearer.