Ukraine Invasion: Part 47

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 47. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have initiated the transfer of troops from rear units to reinforce frontline infantry, as reported by The New York Times.
The focal point of the conflict remains the Avdiivka region in the east of the Donetsk area, where the offensive by the aggressor army persists. The invaders are utilizing tunnels beneath the streets and deploying unmanned vehicles laden with explosives towards Ukrainian positions. Additionally, the Russian Federation is dispatching assault groups in an attempt to seize control of an industrial waste heap on the city's outskirts.

Head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, arrived in Kyiv for his fourth visit since the onset of the full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation.

Russia requested an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council on February 6 “in connection with the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ attack on Lysychansk.”
Propagandists claim that the strike killed 28 “civilians.”
According to journalist Denis Kazansky and the Lisichansk city military administration, Russian security forces and local collaborators were in the restaurant at the time of the attack.

Developers from SkyLab UA have created a strategic strike drone Shoolika mk6, — Vice Prime Minister Fedorov
The operating range is up to 10 km, the drone can carry a load of up to 6 kg, has a high-precision control system, and the Shoolika mk6 is also resistant to EW.
Defense forces have already tested the Shoolika mk6 and given their feedback: the drone is important for tactical operations, especially at night.

France will expand support for Ukraine not only with finances, but also with “the latest generation weapons,” French Prime Minister Attal said

Prime Minister of the UK Rishi Sunak stated that the country is prepared for potential Russian aggression and disagreed with the criticism of insufficient funding mentioned in the recent parliamentary report on defense capability.

Today marks the 60th anniversary of Nutella. While we would have liked to join the celebration, it's important to note that the brand has maintained its presence in the Russian Federation, thus sponsoring the war of aggression against Ukraine.

👑 The King of the United Kingdom, Charles III, has been diagnosed with cancer, the royal family confirms to the British media

They didn't turn up so it couldn't go ahead. Hungary should be threatened with NATO expulsion

So this is how Órban arranged it.

Yes, Hungary should have its influence in the EU stopped, no more money to it and no more NATO.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Trump urged not to vote for the compromise agreement on migration regulation in the Senate, which contains additional funds to help Ukraine.

VPNs will be blocked in Russia from March 1
The head of the Safe Internet League, Ekaterina Mizulina, explained at a meeting with Sverdlovsk schoolchildren that it will not be possible to block all VPNs yet, but the authorities will restrict access to large applications, as they allegedly siphon users' data and pass it on to third parties.
"A VPN, especially a free one, is a portal to hell in general! This is a very big hole in your device," Mizulina stated.
Mizulina is head of the "Safe Internet League" in Russia, avid supporter of war.

The video shows Ukrainian special forces interrogating a captured PMC Wagner mercenary in Sudan
The footage was provided https://www.kyivpost.com/post/27637 to the Kyiv Post by sources in the Ukrainian special services. In the video, the mercenary admits that their group of one hundred people was sent to Sudan to overthrow the local government.

Putin's spokesman, Peskov, said that if the West decides to use Russia's frozen assets, it will be deeply illegal and will entail very long legal proceedings

🇵🇱Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said that he does not rule out any scenarios in the further development of Russia's war against Ukraine, and Poland should be prepared for them

The Mediterranean Corridor will reach Ukraine
The EU plans to include Ukraine in a new railway corridor. The basic network is to be ready by 2030, the extended network by 2040, and the global network by 2050.
Ukraine has been included in a global railway project: trains from Lviv to European countries. This was reported by the Spanish publication Levante.
The railway connection will run from the southern coast of Spain, passing through Almeria, Granada and Antequera, ending in Lviv.

Agreed.

Hopefully it's just a delay but I'm not holding my breath.

Just getting caught up on the In Mosvow's Shadow Podcast and listening to Mark's episode from 21 Jan. As ever right on the money and so non-hysterical. Key points below for those interested:

• It's pointless denying that there is Ukraine fatigue in both Europe and America, it's clear that there is and denial of the facts means that we aren't properly planning.
• Addressing Ukraine fatigue is one of the very reasons that we're seeing Governments increasingly resorting to 'scare tactics' (his words).
• He thinks it's very unlikely that if Russia 'wins' that will mean the total takeover of Ukraine. They will likely hold them at the Dnipro, granted probably losing some key areas such as Kharkiv and Odessa - this is even with the 100% severance of Western aid which is extremely unlikely. He also reminds people that a Russian 'victory' would not be the end, they would face a long and difficult pacification process with a civilian population who are fundamentally opposed to their presence and are militarily experienced and hardened.
• He talks about the assumption that we're on our way to Russia engaging NATO and WW3 (e.g. references the German Defence Minister's comments). Mark says he thinks this assumption is fundamentally wrong and actually a bit 'stupid' (again his words). He thinks it reflects a desperate attempt to combat Ukraine fatigue by raising the stakes domestically.
• His view is that using the above to justify aid devalues Ukraine's struggle - e.g. they're only worth supporting to keep our own populations safe.

I do love MG. He also doesn't believe an attack on NATO makes sense, though everywhere else this is being discussed as a certainty at the moment. We clearly need to up our defence but unless the govt knows something we don't, they should be emphasising prevention over definite war

His view is that using the above to justify aid devalues Ukraine's struggle - e.g. they're only worth supporting to keep our own populations safe.

I take the point, but appealing to people's self-interest has often been successful. Overegging the pudding won't help though, it will be counter productive.

But Russia has clearly said that it has more territorial ambitions and there is no doubt the West is under a sustained and effective hybrid attack, a very strong one.

That's not the same as an open war, of course. But it's not impossible that that will happen within Europe. Highly unlikely to affect the US directly, ofc.

Not the US, but the whole of the rest of Europe

That's not new though, Russia has been engaged in strong hybrid warfare with Europe, and the West generally for years (you may even say there hasn't been a time it hasn't been engaged in such). It even went so far as using chemical weapons on British soil numerous times.

Russian Hybrid Warfare | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org) - this publication from 2020 is a good read to understand the extent to which this was an issue, just less well known about, before the 2022 invasion.

Also not new are Russia's expansionist territorial claims. What has changed is that Ukraine has taught us that we can't just rely on Russia not following through. I do however consider an attack against a NATO member, in Putin's eyes, to be very different to attacking Ukraine. His calculations will be very different to those in 2022 and will be shaped by his experience in Ukraine, where he underestimated the manner in which the West would respond. For all his faults Putin is not a stupid man.

Yes true, it's just much more vocal and laid bare. And it's particularly frightening how Russia has managed to poison democracy within the US. And it's so bare faced too : Tucker Carlson (mad trump supporter once touted as trumps possible VC) has just returned from interviewing Putin ffs!! I've read the interview transcript and obviously it's very pro trump and anti Biden. Alloys posted it here but it was unverified on Twitter so didn't want to until sure it's the real deal

Breaking news: US court rules Trump does not have presidential immunity and can be prosecuted. Whether he will remains to be seen but this is not bad news for a change: www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68026175

Oh good. Washington finally pulled their finger out.

There's the Supreme Court to go. Let's hope that, unlike within the republican party, those making the decisions aren't in Trump's pocket 🤞 Cos the evidence against him appears, you know, overwhelming

Tucker Carlson talking about why it's important we listen to his interview with Putin because that's freedom of speech and excellent journalism. Only all the Russian journalists who have attempted to have a voice have been disappeared, free press crushed. Anyway, better listen to this completely unbiased piece of journalism: x.com/tuckercarlson/status/1754939251257475555?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ

Freedom of speech does not mean captive audience, Tucker...

It looks like Ukraine may be about to lose Avdiivka.

With the shortage of artillery shells they have been relying heavily on drones to repell attacks.

The last few days have been heavy rain and fog reducing drones ability. The result is Russia has advanced quite considerably from the north far enough to put the supply road under fire.

If they can't be pushed back in short order holding Avdiivka will be impossible.

This is the direct result of the EU not ramping up production in time for the promised supply of 1 millon shells and Trumps sycophants blocking a Ukraine deal.

I'm angry

Timothy Garton Ash on European Defence (or maybe a lack of it):

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/06/vladimir-putin-donald-trump-europe-defence-community

I'm very very interested in what Tacker Carlson going to ask him. From the preview it looks very much like "Why is it in Americas interest to help Ukraine?" In reality America is getting the overwhelming benefits from this conflict. European unity in security, huge market in Europe for American energy, western strategic alliance against China. The world is very much divided now between the West led by America and the rest.
You could not have wished for a bigger idiot to sit in Kremlin.

God that video of Tucker Carlson justifying his interview with Putin is just sickening, complete and utter bile. Putin lost his right to spout his nonsense on Western platforms the day he so mercilessly violated Ukraine. It’s absolutely right that he, and his cronies, have been silenced.

That was a good read. This part stood out to me:

Second, Europe must do more for its own conventional defence. Unlike the first Trump presidency, his second is being carefully prepared, with detailed plans drawn up by friendly thinktanks. The Heritage Foundation’s 2025 presidential transition project defines the relevant goal thus: “Transform Nato so that US allies are capable of fielding the great majority of the conventional forces required to deter Russia while relying on the United States primarily for our nuclear deterrent and select other capabilities, while reducing the US force posture in Europe.”

If we’re honest, isn’t this a reasonable ask? Eighty years after D-day, why should a continent with an economy of similar size still depend so heavily on the US for its security?

Being stationed in Europe is considered good duty by American troops, but it's common to wonder why so many are necessary when the population there is larger than the US. And a lot of what we provide, i.e. the select other capabilities isn't available from any other member. Think satellite intel, global signals intel, specialized weapons, etc.

One underappreciated reason is that in many European countries, soldiers are much closer to civil servants, with very high labor costs. Some, if I recall correctly, even have labor unions. So their numbers are small and their expense crowds out other items in the defense budget, like equipment. This issue needs to be addressed as part of the solution.

@MissConductUS
I think that Timothy Garton is absolutely right, Europe can afford in every sense to have an army equal if not superior to the American however there is a "but". To keep strategic equilibrium in Europe there was always a strategy of America in, Russia out, Germany down. Now Russia out, and America is out we need to have Germany as a military powerhouse of Europe. Just the thought of this will send shivers down the spine of all the European leaders.

I think it's too early to say that "America is out". Even if the US Army Europe's footprint is reduced, American bases in Europe will remain staffed and operational. Troops will still rotate in and out. I can't imagine the American tripwire disappearing completely. And those troops will be the first to be attacked by Russia in a kinetic conflict.

The Bundeswehr was a military powerhouse during the Cold War, and the rest of Europe accepted it as necessary to deter the Russians.

Congress will try to pass aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan as a separate bill, without any of the border provisions. I have no idea what the probability of success will be. Stay tuned.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/senators-rush-to-salvage-ukraine-aid-after-border-deal-fails-afcd700a?st=c76tliehk3534mh&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-5-2024

Key Takeaways:

• US Senate negotiators unveiled their proposed supplemental appropriations bill on February 4 that — if passed — would provide roughly $60 billion of security assistance for Ukraine, the overwhelming majority of which would go to American companies and US and allied militaries.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on February 4 that Ukraine needs to replace a “series of state leaders” across the Ukrainian government who are “not just in a single sector” such as the Ukrainian military.
• The Kremlin is intensifying rhetoric pushing for the hypothetical partition of Ukraine by seizing on innocuous and unrelated topics, likely in an attempt to normalize the partition narrative in Western discussions about Ukraine.
• Delays in Western security assistance continue to exacerbate Ukraine’s shell shortage and undermine Ukraine’s ability to use high-value Western counterbattery systems.
• The Kremlin may not allow Boris Nadezhdin, the only anti-war Russian presidential candidate, to run in the March 2024 presidential election due to Nadezhdin’s larger-than-anticipated popularity.
• The Kremlin is reportedly nationalizing private enterprises in Russia quietly.
• Russian forces made confirmed gains near Kupyansk, Kreminna, Avdiivka, and northeast of Bakhmut amid continued positional fighting along the entire frontline.
• The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) may expand the list of courses available to women at the FSB Academy.
• Russian occupation administrations continue efforts to indoctrinate Ukrainian children into Russian culture and nationalism through patronage networks with Russian federal subjects (regions).