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Ukraine Invasion: Part 41

998 replies

MagicFox · 06/06/2023 13:13

Welcome to thread 41 with new guidance thrashed out with regular posters to keep us on track :-) Hope you all approve!

  1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events
  1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content
  1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful
OP posts:
Thread gallery
161
RedToothBrush · 24/06/2023 11:03

Moonandstarzz · 24/06/2023 10:50

@RedToothBrush thank you. That's a very interesting way of describing the mood in Russia. I'd imagine speaking out or debating anything could land you in prison so must be easier for the people to try & get on with life quietly & keep their opinions to themselves.

Why do you want to put yourself as supporting the wrong side? Certainly at this stage in proceedings

DuncinToffee · 24/06/2023 11:07

Lawrence Freedman
My first stab at trying to make sense of the remarkable events in Russia. No doubt updates will be needed

https://samf.substack.com/p/prigozhins-mutiny

Prigozhin's Mutiny

What's going on in Russia?

https://samf.substack.com/p/prigozhins-mutiny

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/06/2023 11:14

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The column of PMC "Wagner" is 2 km from Buturlinovka, where they are preparing to occupy the airfield
One cannot fail to notice that the mercenaries are actively using the Pantsir missile system. In each column, there is a fighter on a car ready to fire.

In an interview with The Guardian, Commander of the Ground Forces Syrskyi said that the main forces of the Ukrainian army have not yet been involved in the offensive: "Everything is still ahead."

🇺🇸 The Pentagon continues to monitor Western weapons systems transferred to Ukraine and has not yet recorded cases of their unauthorized distribution, — Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia Laura Cooper

The investigative committee of the FSB opened a criminal case against Prigozhin for organizing an armed rebellion, — Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation
This crime is punishable by imprisonment for 12 to 20 years.
It’s really very hard to comment on what’s going on.

Since start of the full-scale invasion, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have captured hundreds of Russian weapons. After receiving some special Ukrainian upgrades, they travel back to the front lines to fight the army that brought them there.

The transfer of Western F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine may take place in early 2024, but specific dates have not yet been determined, — Politico

🇭🇺 Ukraine has returned two more POWs from Hungary, – Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.

As a result of debris falling on a residential building in the Solomiansky district of Kyiv, construction structures on the 16th, 17th, 18th and 19th floors of the building were partially destroyed, individual cells on each floor caught fire.
2 people died, 11 were injured, 3 of them were hospitalized

Patricia (Argentina), Joaquin (Brazil) and Juanita (Colombia) came to Ukraine in June 2023 as a part of a group of journalists from South America — on the invitation of Public Interest Journalism Lab. They saw war-torn Ukraine with their own eyes, talked to Ukrainians from every walk of life: from the soldiers serving on a frontline to the President and the First Lady. http://UNITED24.media

"I see that my summer vacation in Crimea is approaching," wrote Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky on his Twitter

The plane of the Lukashenko family landed in Türkiye at 5 am
The government business jet EW-301PJ, which took off from MSQ at 00:01, landed in Bodrum, Türkiye at 5:15 in the morning.

This is what a high-rise building in Kyiv looks like after a night rocket attack by the Russian Federation.

The bridge in the south of the Moscow region across the Oka is blocked
The strategic crossing was closed with dump trucks full of sand and sprinklers filled with water.

Voronezh, Russia — right now

❗️Wagner seized all military facilities in Voronezh, — BBC sources

Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
borntobequiet · 24/06/2023 11:15

Now is the time. If they had any wind of what might happen they should’ve been ready to go.

If it really were the case, four or five days’ time - or a week - might be better.

MissConductUS · 24/06/2023 11:21

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/06/2023 10:55

There are pictures that at least one major road between Moscow and Rostov is being deliberately blocked just south of Moscow.

Good morning all. The thread has certainly moved quickly.

The Chechens are rubbish. What's left of the Rosguadia has the best chance of stopping whatever Wagner is doing. The Russian airforce will also play a key role. Wagner has some air assets, but very few.

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 24/06/2023 11:22

borntobequiet · 24/06/2023 11:15

Now is the time. If they had any wind of what might happen they should’ve been ready to go.

If it really were the case, four or five days’ time - or a week - might be better.

No, this will be over quickly, one way it the other.

For Prigozhin to risk it must rely on some support on the regular army.

That or he was drunk as a skunk when he went for it.

Or both. But Ukraine needs to act now.

PerkingFaintly · 24/06/2023 11:31

Chatillon · 24/06/2023 10:22

Putin: This is treason!

Prighozin: No its just a Special Military Uprising.

ROFL

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/06/2023 11:34

Volodymyr Zelensky commented on the armed rebellion in Russia:

"Everyone who chooses the path of evil destroys himself. Who sends columns of troops to destroy the lives of another country and cannot stop them from fleeing and betraying when life resists. Who terrorizes with missiles, and when they are shot down, humiliates himself to receive Shahed drones. Who despises people and throws hundreds of thousands into the war, in order to eventually barricade himself in the Moscow region from those whom he himself armed. For a long time, Russia used propaganda to mask its weakness and the stupidity of its government. And now there is so much chaos that no lie can hide it. And all this is one person, who again and again scares by the year 1917, although he is able to result in nothing else but this.
Russia's weakness is obvious. Full-scale weakness. And the longer Russia keeps its troops and mercenaries on our land, the more chaos, pain, and problems it will have for itself later. It is also obvious. Ukraine is able to protect Europe from the spread of Russian evil and chaos.

We keep our resilience, unity and strength.
All our commanders, all our soldiers know what to do.
Glory to Ukraine!"

Moonandstarzz · 24/06/2023 11:34

So basically the best possible outcome is for Putin to overcome Prighozins power grab & for Ukraine to act asap. But ultimately Putin remains in power for the greater good (as mental as that sounds!)

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/06/2023 11:38

Putin is calling the CTSO members for help. (the Russian equivilent of NATO).

Khazakstan has turned him down.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/06/2023 11:40

Live: Ukraine Telegram

"All the key facilities in Voronezh have also been taken under control by Wagner PMC, as in Rostov, a source close to the central office of the Russian Federal Security Service has confirmed to the BBC Russian Service.

❗️❗️Russian aviation strikes on the M-4 highway used by Wagner PMC fighters - Russian military correspondents report
We are waiting for visual confirmation [as of around 11:14 Moscow time]

"Wagner" aims to reach Moscow - British intelligence
They believe that the demarche of the Wagner PMC is the most serious challenge to the Russian state, and the next few hours will be key in determining how this crisis will develop

❗️Putin continues to call CSTO members. He called Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko and Kazakh President Tokayev.
CSTO military alliance implies the deployment of military contingent to countries upon request if necessary - The Moscow Times

Putin himself called his Kazakh counterpart, but Tokayev said that Prigozhin's rebellion is an internal matter of Russia.
This was stated by Kazakhstan's channels.

❗️❗️The insurgents successfully passed Voronezh and are advancing through the Lipetsk region. They boast that they have shot down advanced "Rosgvardiya" outposts and taken trophies - Igor Strelkov (Girkin)

It is important to understand that the strike on the oil depot in Voronezh, Russia, was carried out by the Russian army. It is not Ukrainian UAVs, DRGs or partisans. It is the Russian army hitting Russian territory.

Civilians in Rostov are bringing food and beverages to Wagner fighters.

Russian publics report two strikes on occupied Henichesk and Skadovsk. The head of the occupation administration of the Kherson region, Saldo, again talks about strikes with Storm Shadow missiles - this time there were allegedly four of them. Probably, they hit military facilities.

🇨🇳 The Chinese state-owned company Poly Technologies sent large batches of gunpowder to Russia at least twice in 2022 to produce ammunition, The New York Times reports. (www.nytimes.com/2023/06/23/business/economy/china-russia-ammunition.html)
The gunpowder, which would be enough to make at least 80 million rounds of ammunition, was sent by rail to the Barnaul Cartridge Plant in central Russia.

Markov, Russian propagandist, calls the events of tonight "provocations of British intelligence." [Not Satan?]

⚡️⚡️⚡️Yevgeniy Prigozhin said that Russian troops shelled the rear bases of the Wagner PMC. The social network has already published videos allegedly from the site of the attack.
❗️Russian Defense Ministry says reports of a missile strike on Wagner camps is an "information provocation"

General "Armageddon" Surovikin published a video calling Wagner to "obey the Supreme Commander".

"Wagner's PMC has taken control of all military facilities in Rostov, including the airfield. Prigozhin says he did this to avoid air strikes by the Russian army.

  • The exits from the city were blocked in Rostov, and people were urged not to go outside.
  • A counterterrorism operation was introduced in Moscow and the Voronezh region.

Kadyrov releases a statement, saying that Prigozhin has stabbed Russia in the back and that Kadyrov has sent Chechen soldiers to fight against the Wagner Group [did he promise the fighters that Wagnerites are secretly goats in disguise?]

🇵🇱Polish President Duda said he held consultations with the prime minister and the head of the country's Defense Ministry, as well as with allies in connection with the situation in Russia - Reuters

While people were watching Russian TV channels, Prigozhin suddenly appeared on the TV and his speech began to play - Russian telegram channels.

Internet blocking has begun in the Russian Federation.
According to GlobalCheck, Russian Internet service providers have begun blocking access to Google.
Currently, only twenty-five percent of users in Russia have access to Google.

Meanwhile, banners urging people to join Wagner PMC are being pulled down in Russian cities. - Russian media

Imagine now the face of Peskov, who seriously announced (https://t.me/bazabazon/17087) to the whole country that his son is fighting in Wagner

Belarusian soldiers fighting for Ukraine say it’s for them to take control of Belarus.

🇨🇺🇷🇺 The Russians have reopened the Soviet spy center Lourdes in Cuba, in the suburbs of Havana, which was officially closed in 2001. An investigation by The Insider claims (https://theins.ru/politika/262717) that its main task was to spy on the United States.
"Listeners" from the GRU and graduates of universities related to rocketry, computer science, and exact mathematics are secretly transferred to the island under the guise of diplomats. There are already intelligence officers on the island who specialize in electronic intelligence.
They can intercept data from American communications satellites, telephone conversations, messages from NASA's mission control center, and much more.
Earlier, Western media reported (https://www.wsj.com/articles/cuba-to-host-secret-chinese-spy-base-focusing-on-u-s-b2fed0e0) that China was opening an intelligence base in Cuba. The goals are the same: to spy on the United States. Official Beijing denies it.

Street webcams stopped working in Rostov-on-Don.
The website of online broadcasts says "access to broadcast temporarily denied."

In Russia, the search query "civil war" has sharply increased and overtaken "SMO"

After the attack on the Chongar Bridge, which connects occupied Crimea with mainland Ukraine, the "governor" of the Kherson region, Volodymyr Saldo, said that the Chongar bridge was damaged "much more seriously than initially thought": the bridge will be closed for the next 15-20 days, and the damage will be assessed. The Russians have built a pontoon ferry. The satellite image was published by the Schemes project. It shows traces of shelling.

Telegram is unstable
Telegram users in Europe (DC2) complain about slow performance of the messenger, sometimes media is not loaded and voice messages are not sent.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
Ukraine Invasion: Part 41
Moonandstarzz · 24/06/2023 11:40

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/06/2023 11:38

Putin is calling the CTSO members for help. (the Russian equivilent of NATO).

Khazakstan has turned him down.

What will Belarus do?

Igotjelly · 24/06/2023 11:45

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/06/2023 11:38

Putin is calling the CTSO members for help. (the Russian equivilent of NATO).

Khazakstan has turned him down.

😂😂😂😂😂

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/06/2023 11:46

Good question. Lukashenko needs to decide who to support. If he doesn't support Putin now, though, he's toast if Priz really does get as far as the Kremlin.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/06/2023 11:46

actually, unless Putin wins this he's toast all round. And if he doesn't support Putin militarily, Putin won't forget.

RedToothBrush · 24/06/2023 12:01

Moonandstarzz · 24/06/2023 11:34

So basically the best possible outcome is for Putin to overcome Prighozins power grab & for Ukraine to act asap. But ultimately Putin remains in power for the greater good (as mental as that sounds!)

No the best outcome is for Russia to get bogged down in its own mess for sometime and screw logistics into Ukraine and Crimea.

Then Russia slowly is destabilised and Putin can no longer maintain the war.

And there is an uprising in Belarus.

Not sure Putin staying in power helps in many ways given his age.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/06/2023 12:09

It seems that Prigozhin has been stockpiling ammunition and weapons for 2 months. Hence the screams of being short of ammo in Bakhmut.

When the Russian MoD supplied them, they were funding their own rebels.

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 24/06/2023 12:13

Who comes after Putin though? And just how much is destabilised Russia dangerous?

LarkLane · 24/06/2023 12:16

Incredibly informative posts. Thank you so much to the dedicated posters here from a long time lurker, especially to @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar for that lengthy and balanced contribution.

MissConductUS · 24/06/2023 12:17

Dom Nicholls has tweeted that the Telegraph will release a special edition of their Ukraine: The Latest podcast today at 1300 London time to cover the events in Russia.

Igotjelly · 24/06/2023 12:17

ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 24/06/2023 12:13

Who comes after Putin though? And just how much is destabilised Russia dangerous?

This has been explored by a number of people and the general consensus is that no one really knows what comes after Putin but most agree that it’s unlikely to be Westward leaning. A destabilised Russia has the potential to be incredibly dangerous and unpredictable. The question is also raised as to which world powers choose to exert their influence in such a situation (looking at you China!)

Igotjelly · 24/06/2023 12:18

MissConductUS · 24/06/2023 12:17

Dom Nicholls has tweeted that the Telegraph will release a special edition of their Ukraine: The Latest podcast today at 1300 London time to cover the events in Russia.

Oh thank god 😂 I love Dom and the gang and was gutted I’d need to wait until Mon!

StarryGazeyEyes · 24/06/2023 12:19

Darth Putin is on fire today!

RedToothBrush · 24/06/2023 12:20

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 24/06/2023 12:09

It seems that Prigozhin has been stockpiling ammunition and weapons for 2 months. Hence the screams of being short of ammo in Bakhmut.

When the Russian MoD supplied them, they were funding their own rebels.

What are levels of ammunition like in Moscow?

Realistically Prigozhin can only succeed if there is a collapse in support for Putin preferably with defection to Prigozhin as a leader.

That's why there is this 'negotiation' going on in Rostov between Prigozhin and army officials.

Has Prigozhin got the support of others.

How long this might last is interesting. A blockade / seige of Rostov has implications for logistics.

MissConductUS · 24/06/2023 12:20

Igotjelly · 24/06/2023 12:18

Oh thank god 😂 I love Dom and the gang and was gutted I’d need to wait until Mon!

My feelings exactly.

Wagner doesn't seem to be meeting much resistance yet. I'm waiting to see how the Ukrainians exploit this.