Ukraine Invasion: Part 41

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 41 with new guidance thrashed out with regular posters to keep us on track :-) Hope you all approve!

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1672558004015714304

This made me laugh.

The aftermath is going to be a nightmare either way but I'm under no illusions about how little we can influence the outcome.

Where have Wagner withdrawn from? That's a weakened front...

Twitter is showing footage of a convoy of Chechens allegedly headed to Rostov....

They pulled back well east of Bakhmut, and regular Russian forces took their place. They were acting as reserves, not front-line troops. So that area may be more vulnerable now. I think striking south is still the main objective for the UAF.

Reports of riots in one of Moscow's main prisons...

Someone pointed out that Russia has lost its entire influence in Africa at this moment since it mostly went thru Wagner, unless Prigozhin wins.

I think he might. He's stockpiled anti aircraft missiles, they have a lot of weapons and there's no one to stop them between where they are now and Moscow.

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Henry Foy at henryjfoy
Major question - what were Russia's security services doing for the past few months as Wagner stocked up on arms for this operation and laid the groundworks and preparations? Colossal domestic intelligence failure.

Failure? Or deliberately withheld information?

Wagner's PMC has taken control of all military facilities in Rostov, including the airfield. Prigozhin says he did this to avoid air strikes by the Russian army.

Maxar Satellite pictures show 15 or so Migs on the airbase. On the assumption this was still and active base and given Russia's intelligent failures, could Wagner have seized these aircraft and do they have the ability to fly and maintain them? I guess not but they might collateralise them in some way?

UK has called a COBRA meeting to discuss the developing situation. They clearly think it’s serious.

At least our current Prime Minister will attend it and focus to some degree. Our previous one Boris Johnson is currently wanging on about brave submersible tourists at the forefront of billionairing. Truss is probably dreaming about China.

It makes me sad to say, but I can't see Ukraine's stolen children being returned under any Russian regime at the moment. At least not without some serious pressure on that regime - and who would have sufficient leverage plus the motivation?

Having slaughtered so many of its own 16 to 40-year-old men, Russia will be voracious for replacements from the upcoming generation.

It also seems likely suspect Ukraine has a lost a larger proportion of its population through death, disablement, abduction and refugees choosing not to return, so this will be serious for Ukraine as a country as well as for the children and families directly involved.

It’s being chaired by the Foreign Sec, not sure if Sunak is attending at this stage.

I take it back. Sunak should be there though IMHO. This is huge.

You are right here about Ukrainians wishing not to return. There are some Ukrainan families who moved to our town during the war whose dc have joined the local school alongside my dc.. The Ukrainian families have integrated so well & the dc are doing very well in school. I cannot see them wanting to return especially with them working so hard to carve new lives out here. I wouldn't blame them one bit for never returning. And the same for any Russians who were lucky enough to flee when they could.

On the Twitter live space, looking at the other listeners and wondering how many of them are on this thread

Thing is though we don’t live in a Presidential system, it’s right that the appropriate Cabinet Minister be leading such a meeting and then feeding back to No.10. It’s a sign Sunak trusts his Cabinet.

It’s brilliant isn’t it?

At least the squirrels should be quiet for a while. Hiding in their dreys until they know which side to troll for.

It's early but I've set the next thread up for when we need it and will post it again once we're at the top of this one: Ukraine Invasion: Part 42 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4834493-ukraine-invasion-part-42

Rumours Putin's plane has got to St Petersburg.

I thought we British had eaten them all?

Prigozhin is more competent but even more brutal than Putin. It’s hard to imagine him as being a hope for peace I would’ve thought.

Good overview from Paul Poast: twitter.com/profpaulpoast/status/1672573242014588929?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ

Listening in to the Telegraph. It's very good.

• Bakhmar's resistance was effective in hurting Wagmar leading, in part, to these events
• Wagnar probably won't win as coups rarely succeed in Russia
• If Wagnar implodes, a lot of Russia's influence in Africa will be wiped out (I am also interested in what will happen to Syria?)
• The war has isolated Putin from his elite; a dangerous set of circumstances. Even if Wagnar do not succeed, Putin will still be left looking weak.
• The timing for Putin is terrible; he was getting some control of the narrative with Ukraine's slow counter-offensive and it's gone out of the window.