Ukraine Invasion: Part 41

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 41 with new guidance thrashed out with regular posters to keep us on track :-) Hope you all approve!

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So, I am fairly ignorant of warfare and military history. But I seem to remember that many conflicts I learned about turned on the behaviour of mercenaries switching sides, more in their own interests than anyone else’s (and often switching back again, or turning on their allies).

Russian state TV confirmed it and Putin said the situation in Rostov was difficult during his TV address.

On that note, given the content of the address where Putin has publicly said there is a mutiny which must be put down it's near impossible for this to be a set up because of the implications on what people might do on the ground. In this sense events are out of the control of Putin and his address was an admission of that.

Just Prighozin can be any hope for Ukraine or peace. Does he have any diplomatic profile to maintain internationally?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672534495587622914 another aircraft allegedly shot down by Wagner troops

Truncated Roundups atm

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23-2023

Key Takeaways

• Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have launched an armed rebellion on June 23 to force a leadership change within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) which is unlikely to succeed.
• Early reports following Prigozhin’s statements suggest that Russian internal security forces are activating in response to Prigozhin’s statements and possible Wagner moves, primarily in Moscow and Rostov, and the Kremlin appears opposed to Prigozhin’s actions.
• Prigozhin set informational conditions for this effort earlier in the day by accusing the Russian MoD and unnamed oligarchs of deceiving Putin and the Russian public in order to launch the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.
• Prigozhin likely intends to truly conduct an armed rebellion against the Russian MoD, rather than expecting Kremlin support to compel MoD leadership changes or only escalating rhetorically.
• It is therefore most likely that Prigozhin fully intends for Wagner to move against MoD leadership and forcibly remove them from power, more likely against the Southern Military District command in Rostov-on-Don but possibly also against Moscow.
• An armed Wagner attack against the Russian military leadership in Rostov-on-Don would have significant impacts on Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.
• Prigozhin’s apparent start of an armed rebellion is the culmination of his campaign to retain control over his military forces, and he likely views the rebellion as an existential survival effort.
• Prigozhin’s likely intention was to gain the allegiance of senior Russian officers and military personnel, but he is unlikely to secure sufficient military support considering that Wagner-affiliated Army General Sergei Surovikin denounced Prigozhin’s call for armed rebellion.
• Even if the Wagner Group can credibly threaten the MoD, Putin is incredibly unlikely to acquiesce to a successful effort by Prigozhin to topple the MoD.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on June 23.
• Russian forces conducted another series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on June 23, primarily targeting a Ukrainian airfield in Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
• Russian forces continued to conduct limited ground attacks in the Kupyansk area, and Russian and Ukrainian forces continued to skirmish south of Kreminna.
• Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in the Bakhmut area.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front.
• Russian and Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian federal subjects and the Wagner Group continue efforts to conceal the true scale of Russian and Wagner losses in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian officials reported that Russian and occupation administrations continue to disregard the lives of Ukrainian civilians in occupied territories.

Very little unless you happen to be an African dictator.

He was in the shadows until this invasion began.

If by some miracle he did end up in the Kremlin he'd have to start building international links but he's not exactly popular. He'd also have to handle Russia's internal state. He's actually spoken in favour of severe repression in the past, though he's fundamentally a violent businessman and he won't want to completely ruin Russia. He miiiiight bring a bit of stability for a while if he does take over (after some purges of Putin loyalists) but it's impossible to imagine him reconstructing Russia and Russia's profile constructively.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Thank you.

It's also not unknown for rebellious mercenaries to become the new rulers snickers

Though it is a very long way in several different fashions from Rostov to the Kremlin.

How will the Russian people be feeling about this guy being potential president?
If I recall correctly the consensus on Navalny was that it was good for Putin to have opposition but Navalny wasn't who they wanted to lead either.. Many young Russians seem to want a western style democracy, unfortunately it looks like it won't happen anytime soon for them.

Placemarking.

Prighozin is a thug and a pirate. Putin is too, but he loves Russia more than anything and understands a nuclear war would wipe out Russia completely including its buildings, churches and culture forever. I do not believe Prighozin has a shadow of that intelligence which is the worrying bit.

Wagner fighters have taken control of all military facilities in the city of Voronezh

Does Prighozin hate the west as much as Putin? More? Less?

Wagner seizes military facilities in second city - BBC sourcesBBC News Russian sources are now saying that Wagner fighters have taken control of all military facilities in the city of Voronezh, a halfway point between Rostov-on-Don (where Wagner also says it's in charge) and the capital Moscow.
Voronezh city officials are yet to publicly comment on the claim.
Meanwhile, Voronezh region governor Aleksandr Gusev has warned that there are many fake reports circulating about a movement of an armoured column in the region.
He also says the Russian armed forces are now carrying out "operational and combat measures" in the Voronezh region as part of the early declared counter-terrorist operation.

so Who Knows!

The average Russian person is largely passive in terms of politics because they have been so disempowered.

This is also relevant in other ways. Being passive means you are unlikely to rise up to defend the president (but also unlikely to rise up to take him out too).

What's interesting so far is the general lack of resistance from the Russian army on the ground. It's almost an air of it being 'someone else's battle'.

That is why only a small force might be significant. Equally there only needs to be a small defensive force (the Chechens?)

It must be a huge deal, all the main online news outlets have live feeds. I prefer mumsnet threads here!

@RedToothBrush thank you. That's a very interesting way of describing the mood in Russia. I'd imagine speaking out or debating anything could land you in prison so must be easier for the people to try & get on with life quietly & keep their opinions to themselves.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

In an interview for the New Statesman, Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said that Russia had completed preparations for an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
When asked if the decision to conduct a sabotage act at the plant had already been made, Budanov replied that the plan had been "drafted and approved" — the only thing left is the order to proceed. "Then it can happen in a matter of minutes." https://kyivindependent.com/new-statesman-budanov-says-russias-plan-to-sabotage-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-has-been-drafted-and-approved/

Putin condemns Prigozhin's 'rebellion' as Wagner group leader claims he controls all military sites in Rostov https://kyivindependent.com/prigozhin-claims-all-military-objects-in-rostov-under-wagner-control/

⚡️Rostov Oblast governor asks residents to stay calm as media reports administrative buildings seized in city of Rostov https://kyivindependent.com/rostov-oblast-governor-asks-residents-to-stay-calm-and-remain-at-home/

⚡️Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said in a post on Telegram that "anti-terrorist measures" were being taken in the city "in connection with the incoming information."
According to the mayor, the measures include additional controls on the roads and limitations on public gatherings in the city. https://kyivindependent.com/moscow-mayor-says-anti-terrorist-measures-being-carried-out-in-city/

⚡️CNN: The Biden administration is following the situation unfolding in Russia after Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin vowed to take revenge against Russia's military leadership over what he said was a missile strike against his troops in Ukraine, CNN reported. https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-us-officials/

Official: Kyiv able to fulfill https://kyivindependent.com/deputy-pm-in-charge-of-ukraines-eu-accession-predicts-kyiv-to-fulfill-rest-of-commisions-recommendations-by-october/ rest of EU's candidate criteria by October. According to the European Commission's interim assessment, Ukraine has fully completed two out of seven steps. rest of EU's candidate criteria by October.

⚡️Ukrainian troops have advanced in the directions of Novodanylivka-Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka-Novofedorivka using artillery support, the General Staff added. https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-reports-further-positions-gained-on-southern-front-line/

⚡️US senators seek resolution to consider spread of radioactive waste by Russia as attack on NATO.
U.S. Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal on June 22 proposed a resolution to consider any potential nuclear or radioactive attack by Russia as an attack against NATO, given that radioactive waste spreads to NATO countries. https://kyivindependent.com/us-senators-propose-to-consider-russias-nuclear-threats-as-attack-on-nato/

⚡️Satellite imagery shows new pontoon crossing under Chonhar Bridge after alleged Ukrainian strike. https://kyivindependent.com/satellite-imagery-shows-new-pontoon-crossing-under-chonhar-bridge-after-alleged-ukrainian-strike/

Ukrainian Air Force commander Mykola Oleshchuk commented on explosions in Russian-occupied Henichesk in Kherson Oblast, calling them "Ukrainian response to Russia's missile terror."
Oleshchuk published a video from unofficial sources showing pillars of black smoke rising above an alleged base of the Russian National Guard. https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-commander-confirms-strike-on-russian-occupied-henichesk/

⚡️EU Ambassadors approved a draft of the ASAP regulation aiming to increase the bloc’s ammunition production capacity to one million rounds per year for Ukraine, the Swedish Presidency of the EU Council reported on June 23. https://kyivindependent.com/eu-ambassadors-support-regulation-to-ramp-up-ammunition-production/

⚡️Ukrainian state-owned oil and gas company Naftogaz announced on June 23 that it had filed a lawsuit with the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia against Russia for property loss in Crimea, asking for $5 billion in compensation. https://kyivindependent.com/naftogaz-demands/

⚡️Israel fears weapons provided to Ukraine may end up in Iran which, as Netanyahu says, happened with the Western anti-tank weapons that Israel now finds at its borders.https://kyivindependent.com/netanyahu-israel-is-in-peculiar-situation-about-helping-ukraine/

This week's episode of "This Week in Ukraine” is dedicated to a massive Russian scheme to kidnap tens of thousands of Ukrainian children, place them in re-education camps, and give them up for adoption to Russian families.
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Lower troop losses, 1 helicopter and still 30 artillery destroyed.

blimey.

@RedToothBrush
That is why only a small force might be significant. Equally there only needs to be a small defensive force (the Chechens?)

Wagner's probably a far more effective fighting force than the Chechens.
The thing is, where is Putin going to scrape up anyone better?

There are pictures that at least one major road between Moscow and Rostov is being deliberately blocked just south of Moscow.

China? They don't like instability and they've propped up puppet governments before (North Korea).

If I were Ukraine, I would use this moment to attack, whilst the Russian commanders are distracted. Who the hell is going to fight on their side, when you are not sure if the state you are fighting for will exist tomorrow?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1672544361916030976 Prigohzin releases another statement to say Russia is corrupt because of Putin

Why did Ukraine halt the counter offensive indeed?

Now is the time. If they had any wind of what might happen they should’ve been ready to go.