Ukraine Invasion: Part 41

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 41 with new guidance thrashed out with regular posters to keep us on track :-) Hope you all approve!

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Velina Tchakarova:

"This is not a coup by Prigozhin. This is an inner war between the St Petersburg gang of Putin and the Moscow gang of Gerasimov and Shoigu. This is the beginning of Putin‘s election campaign to become reelected on March 17, 2024. His lapdog Prigozhin is masquerading a coup to put the blame on Gerasimov and Shoigu for losing the war against Ukraine. Prigozhin can always be scapegoated if he fails like this has happened in the past."

That would seem right @MagicFox

Double bluff?

Twitter round up of speech

Patrick Fox: Putin in his speech this morning characterized Wagner actions as treason, armed rebellion, and mutiny, calling them a stab in the back of the Russian people. He said Russian forces have been authorized to neutralize those involved, and that internal unrest was a mortal threat to Russia. He called on all Russians to unite against the threat.

Velina Tchakarova: Putin right now: „All those who went on the path of treason will be punished and will be held accountable. The armed forces have been given the necessary orders.
And those who have organised an armed rebellion will be held accountable. Those who have been drawn into this, I call on you to stop your criminal actions.....

Did you have a military or siloviki coup on your bingo card? Because I did

Dmitri Alperovitch (speech summary attached in screenshots)

Transcript of Putin's speech here: t.co/aXixfWDKis

So is this an exit strategy for Putin.....

is he blaming his defence chiefs for starting the invasion and using internal instability as an excuse to halt operations in Ukraine. Will defeating the enemy within appease the Russian people who possibly frightened of the prospect of internal revolt will be relieved that the whole Ukraine misadventure has ended?

I did think Prigozhin’s rant was interesting in that it placed the blame solely at the doors of the defence ministry and not with Putin.

Yes, I think Prigozhin works for Putin

Seems not all is at seems on the surface....

Fast moving but surely this has massive ramifications for the war. If loyalties of the Russian armed forces are being tested internally how do you prosecute war effectively?

Anyone posting in good faith is more than welcome here, @Moonandstarzz

Just woken up after having an early night. Wtf!

Twitter is suggesting to me that two oblasts are potentially now under the control of Wagner.

Now, if that's remotely true it's interesting for two reasons.

The suggestion that it's a coup could be wrong. Why does Wagner need to march on Moscow? Why couldn't it just secure Russia territory and make a new breakaway state? What's Putin going to do? Nuke Russian land? In terms of fighting, Putin has a significant percentage of his forces committed in Ukraine. A sudden readjustment to fight Wagner on home soil won't be easy. He can't redeploy men who are in Ukraine to Russia and it will take time and resources to regroup men and resources from within Russia.

There's also another interesting point to this. Geography.

The two Oblasts Wagner seems to have gone for are the two neighbouring Ukraine. So how does Russia now get supplies to Ukraine and Crimea? Are it's men now on their own?

So many fucking questions?!

Madness!

Ukraine must be delighted!

Logistically there's two major hubs for logistics into Ukraine if I remember correctly. Rostov on Don and Belgorod. This is where the rail networks go through and there are military bases.

Being reported that Wagner have taken down two Russian helicopters that were trying to attack them. Russia have precious few they can spare. The helicopters have been a thorn in Ukraines sign. So even this is good news if true.

NoelReports at NoelReports
These are 180 Russian servicemen and security officials that reportedly refused to interfere with the actions of Wagner PMC and laid down their arms near the border crossing Bugayevka.

There are photos that seem to verify this.

Thanks for keeping us all up to date, this is a turn of events! Wouldn't it be ironic if Wagner did end up occupying the areas already taken; I assume that Russia would then fight them? Does Ukraine then watch and wait?

Off to make popcorn...

indeed hoping it is good for Ukraine

As DH says, so terrible when friends fall out....

I'll be spending the day checking Twitter

I am not sure which cage fight would be the most entertaining, Musk v Zuckerberg or Prigozhin v Shoigu.

If this is Prigozhin acting for Putin in blaming Gerasimov and Shoigu for the failures, does this mean that only a small number of Wagner have left the front line, rather than all of them?
Could they be trying to bluff Ukraine into thinking that there is a bloody great big hole in the front line so they attack there and meet more resistance than expected?

I hope that Ukraine has some good troops trained in observation so they know what is happening on the ground. I guess drones will help with that. I'm sure the cool heads will have thought of this hours ago and adjusted plans accordingly.

Either that will be the outcome. Or Prigozhin does indeed work for Putin and this will be their excuse to back out without losing face...let's all keep fingers crossed for that.

Lawrence Freedman, "Progozhin's Mutiny: What's going on in Russia?": samf.substack.com/p/prigozhins-mutiny

These unfolding events all feel so Mission Impossible scale of plot twists with feints and counter feints. Or is it what it is ie two armed factions falling out under the pressure of a war and mounting casualties? The mind boggles. Next thing we’ll hear Putin ask to join NATO to protect itself against domestic insurgents…

Given that Putin has explicitly labelled the actions of the Wagner Group to be treason, and a mutiny, I see this as extremely unlikely. Having a military rebellion actually inside Russia makes Putin look weak, and a failure. It won’t do much to help him retain power.

Bloody hell, it all kicked off while I was busy celebrating Midsummer. I still don't quite understand what's going on though.