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Ukraine Invasion: Part 39

985 replies

MagicFox · 25/03/2023 22:44

38 filled up quick. Welcome all to 39 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

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267
MagicFox · 01/04/2023 21:07

Greenshake · 01/04/2023 21:03

@MagicFox they are all out today, and right now I am getting stuck into a couple of very unpleasant debates on FB. In fact, yesterday I was labelled a”f***g Nazi butcher” by some wanker with a Putin profile picture.

They must have been taking to a mirror. Hope you can breathe through it, it's so maddening

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AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 01/04/2023 21:07

"Yep, you're right; I butcher Nazis for a living"?

Greenshake · 01/04/2023 21:11

The insult is water off a ducks back to me. What’s more disturbing is that despite my reporting it to Facebook, it’s still there nearly 24 hours later.

blueshoes · 01/04/2023 21:28

MissConductUS · 01/04/2023 17:42

Do you know if the Republicans, if they came into power, would defend Taiwan as strongly as the war games suggest. Presume China will be seen as a bigger and traditional foe with more US commercial and strategic interests at risk than in Ukraine.

The policy of strategic ambiguity means that politicians don't normally go on the record about what they'd do if China invaded Taiwan, but I think most Republicans would defend Taiwan, both because of the commercial interests and to maintain trust in the security arrangements we have with Japan and South Korea. This of course excludes Trump, who is crazier than an outhouse rat.

That's good to know. Hopefully Trump will be contained in the outhouse.

MissConductUS · 02/04/2023 01:13

This is a bit long at 55 minutes, but it's an excellent analysis of the battle of Kyiv. The presenter is on the faculty of West Point's Modern War Institute and a leading expert on urban warfare.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5eWGH_7mrg8&feature=youtu.be

The 2022 Battle of Kyiv_John Spencer_Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Modern War Institute

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=5eWGH_7mrg8

notimagain · 02/04/2023 09:17

A paper here from the UK based foreign policy think tank Chatham House.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/03/russian-nuclear-intimidation/introduction-and-context

Longish read but give the propensity for at least one UK MSM outlet to repeat/report any threat that gets uttered by Putin and for those reports to then trigger alarmist comment on social media (including MN) I thought a couple of paragraphs stood out as perhaps being particularly relevant:

"The challenge for Western media is clear; weighing the arguments for reporting Russian statements against the recognition that, by doing so, those media are allowing themselves to be used as a tool by Russia. The choice a given media outlet makes has direct impact. In one recent study, using the example of threats by Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov, Jyri Lavikainen of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs has demonstrated that when Russian propaganda is ignored by Western media, the messaging has no impact"

And I think most of the grey haired amongst us will nod in agreement with this:

"The risk of over-reaction in coverage of Russian nuclear threats appears particularly pronounced if commentators are relatively new to the Russian problem set, and so may not fully account for the essential context that threatening language around nuclear use is an inescapable background noise from Russia that long predates its war on Ukraine"

Introduction and context

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2023/03/russian-nuclear-intimidation/introduction-and-context

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 02/04/2023 10:28

Trouble is alarmist comments sell newspapers in the West.
Where as the Kremlin controls the media space in Russia and reports what it wants the people to hear.
Sometimes I think it would be better if the government could introduce a news blackout on certain things - but I suppose it's the price we pay for free speech.

MagicFox · 02/04/2023 10:31

There's also the question about how much we trust our government. I wouldn't want the govt to have control over what I see and hear

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ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/04/2023 12:17

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-1-2023

Key Takeaways

  • Russian, Ukrainian, and Western sources observed that the Russian winter offensive has failed to achieve the Kremlin’s goals of seizing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 31.
  • Growing Russian speculation about Russian military command changes likely indicates that Russia may soon reshuffle its senior military command due to the failed winter offensive.
  • Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
  • Russian forces did not make any confirmed gains in or around Bakhmut and continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontline.
  • Russian forces continued to build defenses in occupied southern Ukraine.
  • Russia began its semi-annual conscription on April 1, the largest conscription call-up since 2016.
  • Russian occupation officials continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under rest-and-rehabilitation schemes.
  • Russian nationalist figures criticized Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for failing to pursue the Union State between Russia and Belarus efforts since mid-1990s.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/04/2023 12:25

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚑️SBU conducting (https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-confirms-search-ongoing/) search at Moscow Patriarchate vicar's residence, issues suspicion notice
Law enforcement said that it suspected Metropolitan Pavlo of the Russian-controlled Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP) of violating the Criminal Code of Ukraine, particularly for "inciting religious enmity, justifying and denying the armed aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine."

⚑️Ukraine to buy (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-buy-100-polish-armored-vehicles/) 100 Polish Rosomak armored vehicles.

⚑️Ukraine sanctions (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-sanctions-former-motor-sich-head-russian-companies/) former Motor Sich head, Russian companies.
Bohuslaiev impeded the delivery of a combat helicopter to the Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate in April 2022, Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) wrote on March 28

⚑️German defense minister (https://kyivindependent.com/germany-defense-minister-nato-countries-to-send-160-tanks-to-ukraine/): NATO countries to send total of 160 tanks to Ukraine.
NATO countries plan to send two battalions of German Leopard-2 battle tanks and four battalions of Leopard-1 tanks to Ukraine, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told Die Welt (https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/plus244593650/Boris-Pistorius-macht-deutlich-dass-Bundeswehr-nicht-zu-viel-Material-an-Ukraine-abgeben-darf.html?ref=kyivindependent.com).
The 160 tanks account for roughly half the 300 tanks requested by Ukraine for its counteroffensive.

⚑️Zelensky imposed sanctions (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-imposed-sanctions-on-650-russian-officials-collaborators-companies/)on 650 Russian officials, collaborators, companies.

⚑️Guardians who refuse to evacuate their children from Sloviansk to lose custody (https://kyivindependent.com/guardians-who-refuse-to-evacuate-their-children/).
Guardians of children who have not yet evacuated from Sloviansk, located in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk Oblast and the site of constant Russian assaults, will lose custody and children will be forcibly evacuated, according to a decision by the city's commission for the protection of children's rights.

⚑️Minister: Russia's war has killed (https://kyivindependent.com/minister-russias-war-has-killed-over-200-ukrainian-athletes/) over 200 Ukrainian athletes.

⚑️General Staff: Ukrainian military repels (https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-ukrainian-military-repels-over-70-russian-assaults-over-past-day/) over 70 Russian attacks over past day.

⚑️ Military: Russian troops forced to retreat (https://kyivindependent.com/military-russian-troops-retreat-from-several-positions-in-donetsk-oblast/) from β€˜several positions’ in Donetsk Oblast.
Meanwhile, Russians are intensifying infantry attacks on Avdiivka.

⚑️ Military: Russia switches to aerial attacks (https://kyivindependent.com/military-spokesperson-russia-changes-airstrike-tactics-in-ukraines-south/) in Kherson.
Russia has reportedly started using its Sukhoi Su-35 jets to strike civilian areas in Kherson Oblast, instead of shelling them from the ground positions that are targeted by Ukrainian forces.

⚑️French volunteer fighting for Ukraine killed in action (https://kyivindependent.com/french-soldier-of-ukraines-international-legion-killed-in-action/).

⚑️Number of civilians killed in Russian missile attack on Kostiantynivka on April 2 goes up to 6 (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-attacks-kostiantynivka-in-donetsk-oblast-killing-3/).

⚑️ Armenia won't arrest Putin (https://kyivindependent.com/official-armenia-not-to-arrest-putin-under-icc-warrant-as-it-heard-russiaa-concerns/) under ICC warrant.
Hakob Arshakyan, the vice president of the Armenian National Assembly, said that the ruling party has no intention to arrest Putin if he visits Armenia, despite the obligation to do so following the International Criminal Court warrant.
"We've heard Russia's concerns," Arshakyan said.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/04/2023 12:35

Live: Ukraine Telegram

France refused to host the World Fencing Cup due to the admission of Russians and Belarusians

The SBU released photos of the search in the house of the Lavra's abbot Pavel. Among other things, icons, gold fish and Russian symbols were found there.

The Presidents of Ukraine and France, Volodymyr Zelensky and Emmanuel Macron, had an hour-long phone conversation on Saturday, April 1.

President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasizes the need to reform the UN Security Council, which Russia has assumed the presidency

The latest overview of the situation from the front. Read it if you missed it
πŸ”—Link: https://telegra.ph/Russians-are-dropping-bombs-on-Avdiivka-every-day-and-attacking-the-city-from-all-sides-But-around-Bakhmut-the-occupiers-have-al-03-31

During the entirety of March, the Russian military’s offensive managed to gain only 70km squared of Ukrainian territory.
The red dot represents 70km squared.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/04/2023 12:47

UNITED24 Media Telegram

🌾 The leaders of five EU countries call on Brussels to buy back the surplus of Ukrainian grain β€” Associated Press.
The transit channels of Ukrainian products to third countries do not work correctly.
According to the applicants, the influx of "grain, oil crops, eggs, poultry, sugar, apple juice, apples, berries, flour, honey, and noodles" is particularly unprecedented.
"We also call again for financial support from the EU for the faster development of transport infrastructure," the letter states.
The governments of these countries are facing pressure and protests from farmers who are worried about falling prices and the lack of warehouses to store this year's harvest due to the surplus of Ukrainian products.

Attempts by the Ukrainian authorities to defeat Russia may lead to a "nuclear disaster in Ukraine", said the deputy head of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, the sister of the leader of North Korea, Kim Yo Jong.

Ukraine needs to demine about 470,000 hectares of agricultural land in nine oblasts, Serhiy Reva, head of the Department of Humanitarian Demining of the State Emergency Service, said
Last year, in Kyiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions, sappers managed to demine a total area of about 50,000 hectares, which made it possible to conduct an autumn field campaign for harvesting and sowing.

The occupiers are actively mining fields in the Zaporizhzhia region with the GMZ-3 tracked mine blocker

Foreign IT specialists will be able to become entrepreneurs in Ukraine, β€” Ministry of Digital Transformation
"The first in Eastern Europe: the law on e-residency has entered into force.
Thanks to the law, foreign IT professionals can do business in Ukraine and pay taxes to our state budget. And it's all online," the message reads.

πŸ‡²πŸ‡©πŸ’ͺ🏻 Moldova can become energy independent from Russia in 2 years, β€”Maia Sandu

‼️Bakhmut. April fool weather joke!

Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 02/04/2023 13:40

Attempts by the Ukrainian authorities to defeat Russia may lead to a "nuclear disaster in Ukraine", said the deputy head of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, the sister of the leader of North Korea, Kim Yo Jong.

Those naughty Ukrainian authorities defending and fighting back against an unprovoked war of aggression and forcing Russia to unleash its nuclear arsenal!

Greenshake · 02/04/2023 13:46

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 02/04/2023 10:28

Trouble is alarmist comments sell newspapers in the West.
Where as the Kremlin controls the media space in Russia and reports what it wants the people to hear.
Sometimes I think it would be better if the government could introduce a news blackout on certain things - but I suppose it's the price we pay for free speech.

You are absolutely right. For example, SKY news have placed this article on their news feed THREE times in 24 hours. It has no purpose other than scaremongering.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
prettybird · 02/04/2023 13:55

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 02/04/2023 13:40

Attempts by the Ukrainian authorities to defeat Russia may lead to a "nuclear disaster in Ukraine", said the deputy head of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, the sister of the leader of North Korea, Kim Yo Jong.

Those naughty Ukrainian authorities defending and fighting back against an unprovoked war of aggression and forcing Russia to unleash its nuclear arsenal!

Indeed. Victim blaming at its best. Akin to a domestic abuser saying "You made me hit you" HmmConfusedAngry

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/04/2023 13:57

What I found amazing and encouraging is that for all their efforts, Russia has taken only a tiny 70miles squared in the last 'offensive'. More really a "very slightly rude" than offensive, really.

Zuffe · 02/04/2023 14:55

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 02/04/2023 13:40

Attempts by the Ukrainian authorities to defeat Russia may lead to a "nuclear disaster in Ukraine", said the deputy head of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, the sister of the leader of North Korea, Kim Yo Jong.

Those naughty Ukrainian authorities defending and fighting back against an unprovoked war of aggression and forcing Russia to unleash its nuclear arsenal!

I think she's thinking of her own backyard and just wants to get in there early.

Zuffe · 02/04/2023 15:00

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/04/2023 13:57

What I found amazing and encouraging is that for all their efforts, Russia has taken only a tiny 70miles squared in the last 'offensive'. More really a "very slightly rude" than offensive, really.

That is the same as acquiring the local authority area of Great Yarmouth. Now I like crab and shrimp, but I'm not sure its worth shedding blood and reputation over.

MissConductUS · 02/04/2023 15:43

And let's not forget that in January, Putin put Gerasimov back in charge of the Special Military Catastrophe and ordered that the entire Donbas be occupied by March. Gerasimov may survive, however, as there is no one left to replace him.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/04/2023 15:58

It boils my blood that Russia is claiming the Bucha massacre was made up.

Greenshake · 02/04/2023 17:34

What do we make of this?

Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/04/2023 17:56

Seems to be true. Surprising, really, in St Petersburg itself.

Russia has a huge state apparatus to keep its population under control. What are the bets it's going to get bigger?

MagicFox · 02/04/2023 18:00

Yea it looks true. It was some kind of celebration of him? He was presented with a statuette by a young girl and the explosive was inside it

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MagicFox · 02/04/2023 18:02

Reports that the cafe belonged to Prigozhin

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MagicFox · 02/04/2023 18:03

Please be careful on Twitter - I've just seen a video of the aftermath. I hate that I can see this and not erase it from my mind

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