Ukraine Invasion: Part 39

[MagicFox]

38 filled up quick. Welcome all to 39 🇺🇦

I asked her to just tell me about the day as it unfolded. I think that when we look at the big picture it is balancing to look at the reality of life on the ground. She brushes her teeth and goes out to check the vegetables. Watering them when it is dry (fairly dry at the moment) is a challenge due to the disrupted supply so the well needs using.

'If there is no shelling, I can go to the neighbours to charge my phone'. If you have a generator and oil is scarce you share your resources. 'More shelling later, today a couple of houses on the outskirts were damaged, there were no deaths, there has been no electricity now for 7 months'.

Five military planes flew by in succession.

Her parents are not in a good state mentally. Well, I don't think anyone there is. However, her parents are finding it hard to carry on and their daughter seems to be organising things more.

@MMBaranova praying that your family, friends and their neighbours stay safe and the front line rapidly retreats East leaving them in peace.

There's a credible report of the first target attacked by a Storm Shadow missile. It's too far from the front lines to have been hit by Himars or a JDAM-ER munition.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1657061700007526401

If correct, and I have no reason to doubt it, it demonstrates that the Ukrainian Air Force has solved any technical challenges in firing it from one of their warplanes. The missile can be given target coordinates on the ground and is self guided, so this was not expected to be terribly difficult.

In this case, the target was a factory housing Russian soldiers. Now that they've field tested it, I expect the next ones will be military supply chain or command related.

Even more interesting, the wreckage of a very sophisticated American ADM-160 MALD air launched decoy missile was discovered near the target. These are fired with the real cruise missile and can create false radar returns that make them look like other missiles, attack aircraft, etc. As far as I know, it's never been announced that these were being supplied.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1657075533731987472?s=46&t=yiqoNfz0vVGWkraLbrbUew

These would be very useful in attacking heavily defended targets like the Kerch bridge.

@MMBaranova and @Mb76 it is sobering to read your reports of daily life in the occupied territories. Thank you for your insight and valuable perspective. Praying for your families and that they stay safe until the day of liberation.

Nice 🇺🇦

Your testimony is something we all need to hear.

I'm a fan of Budanov (I'd hate to be his enemy though)

So I enjoyed this tweet

twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1657060292994400256?s=46&t=En7uHsBtveeyWz6jMQkU-A

@MissConductUS
There's a credible report of the first target attacked by a Storm Shadow missile. It's too far from the front lines to have been hit by Himars or a JDAM-ER munition.

@MissConductUS
Even more interesting, the wreckage of a very sophisticated American ADM-160 MALD air launched decoy missile was discovered near the target. These are fired with the real cruise missile and can create false radar returns that make them look like other missiles, attack aircraft, etc. As far as I know, it's never been announced that these were being supplied.

This feels to me like the beginning of the 'start' to the counter-offensive.

Unlike 1990/91, and 2003/04 we will get info in arrears. That makes sense because much more is at stake than oil.

We need a quick strategic follow-up.

At the moment apparently they have started the 'shaping' phase to support the point where the current localized counterattacks move into a full counter offensive, much like they did last year with the Kharkiv counteroffensive.

This must be why Zaluzhny didn't take part in the NATO conference yesterday.

Samuel Ramani:

Ukraine’s shelling of Luhansk has injured Russian Member of the State Duma Viktor Vodolatsky Vodolatsky. He famously predicted that Ukrainian soldiers would flee to Europe rather than defend their homeland

@Mb76, I am sorry for your losses.
There's nothing I can do or say to make it better, but I'm praying for a swift end to this conflict, in Ukraine's favour.

We need a quick strategic follow-up.

I think Zelensky and the UAF leadership have decided that they want another few weeks to get the troops integrated into their new units and for more armor to arrive, like the Leopard 1s I posted about yesterday. But they don't have to sit on their hands. They're boiling the frog, so to speak, and trying to sow a bit of panic among the Russians.

Their gains in Bahkmut are a good example of that strategy. CNN did a good interview with four UAF commanders on the ground in Bahkmut. They credit their success to better weather/less mud, the arrival of American IFVs, and the use of drone guided Himars strikes for their success. In two days, they've taken back territory that Wagner wasted thousands of soldiers to capture.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1657013169871544322

It's not mentioned what American IFVs they have. I'd guess Strykers, as I think they're saving the Bradleys for tougher objectives.

They're boiling the frog, so to speak, and trying to sow a bit of panic among the Russians.

Agreed. that's certainly the impression I'm getting.

With regard to Storm Shadow plus other kit I'm not sure quite what state the Ukr Air Force is in with regard to numbers, it's quite possible they don't have the capability to generate a short two/three day campaign with an overwhelming number of strikes (cf. Gulf War 1 etc).

I wonder if instead we are going to see several weeks of the Ukr AF plinking away at a long list of selected targets as any land campaign gains momentum.

@MissConductUS

Even more interesting, the wreckage of a very sophisticated American ADM-160 MALD air launched decoy missile was discovered near the target.

As an aside it's vaguely entertaining to see how wiki is coping or not with all these revelations.

The wiki ADM-160 MALD entry has gained (as in yesterday), under the list of Launch platforms, a category of "probable" which has just one entry ....MiG-29...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ADM-160_MALD

I'll Just chuck this link in as another aside tosay there's nothing new under the Sun..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ADM-20_Quail

According to Spiegel,is preparing the largest package of military aid for, worth €2.7 billion.

-20 Marder IFV;
-30 Leopard 1A5;
-4 IRIS-T-SLM;
-200 drones;
-100 armored vehicles;
-15 Gepard SPAAG;
-100 logistics vehicles;
-artillery ammunition.

Go Germany!!!!

NOELREPORTS
AT NOELreports

There are reports of powerful explosions in Mariupol near Azovstal, Andryushchenko, adviser to the mayor of the city said.

Explosions ~within~ Mariupol!

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-12-2023

Key Takeaways

• Ukrainian forces have made gains northwest of Bakhmut in localized counterattacks as of May 12.
• Russian milbloggers and other prominent voices in the pro-war information space continue to respond to recent Ukrainian counterattacks with varying degrees of caution and anxiety.
• Ukrainian and American officials stated that Ukrainian forces have not yet started the planned counteroffensive.
• Senior Russian officials proposed a series of domestic repression and censorship measures during the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum on May 11.
• Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin’s newly formed “Club of Angry Patriots” held a press conference on May 12 to discuss its discontent with the current Russian conduct of the war in Ukraine.
• U.S. Ambassador to South Africa Reuben Brigety accused South Africa of loading a Russian ship with ammunition and weapons in December 2022, contradicting its proclaimed neutral stance on the war in Ukraine.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) attempted to distract from and assuage information space paranoia over a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive on the Kharkiv-Luhansk front.
• Russian forces continue limited ground attacks in and around Bakhmut.
• Russian sources continue to speculate about potential Ukrainian counteroffensive preparations in southern Ukraine.
• Russian forces continue to recruit convicts and establish volunteer battalions as a part of crypto-mobilization efforts.
• Senior Russian officials are claiming that they are taking active measures to return displaced and illegally deported Ukrainian civilians, including Ukrainian children, to occupied Ukraine. [yeah, right]

Expanded:
Senior Russian officials proposed a series of domestic repression and censorship measures during the St. Petersburg International Legal Forum on May 11. The theme of the forum centered on the criminalization of “Russophobia,” a measure that Russian Human Rights Council Chairperson Valery Fadeev proposed and Deputy Minister of Justice Andrey Loginov and Russian Ombudsman Tatyana Moskalkova supported.[16] Moskalkova defined Russophobia as a “misanthropic ideology,” and a State Duma deputy claimed that the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrants for Russian officials for the kidnapping of Ukrainian children to Russia is an example of “Russophobia.”

[So, we will kill you, steal your children, complain that you are afraid of us and send you to prison because you are]

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Russian state media: Explosions reported (https://kyivindependent.com/explosions-in-russian-occupied-luhansk/) in Russian-occupied Luhansk.

This Week in Ukraine Ep. 7 – Why Russia relies on private militaries, like Wagner, for its war effort (
(
Episode #7 is dedicated to Russian private military companies, how they operate, and the role they play in Russia's war against Ukraine.

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Russia relies on Kalibr-type missiles (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-russia-relies-on-kalibr-type-missiles-to-disrupt-ukraine-counteroffensive/)* to disrupt Ukraine counteroffensive.*

Belarus Weekly: Lukashenko’s showing at Victory Day celebration sparks rumors about his health (kyivindependent.com/belarus-weekly-lukashenkos-showing-at-victory-day-celebration-sparks-rumors-about-his-health/)
Lukashenko’s swift departure from Victory Day celebrations in both Moscow and Minsk on May 9 have sparked rumors about his health.

⚡️Wagner boss calls on (https://kyivindependent.com/wagner-boss-calls-on-russian-defense-minister-to-come-to-bakhmut/) Russian defense minister to come to Bakhmut.

⚡️Defense Ministry: 740 air raid sirens (https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-740-air-raid-sirens-in-kyiv-since-start-of-full-scale-invasion/) in Kyiv since start of full-scale invasion.
According to the Defense Ministry, the air raid sirens combined lasted 851 hours and 38 minutes, or over 35 days.

⚡️The Times: Ex-Moldovan police chief (https://kyivindependent.com/media-moldova-coup-accusation/) accused of working with Russia to overthrow government.
A Moldovan government spokesperson claimed that ex-Police Head Gheorghe Cavcaliuc has allegedly been working in coordination with Moscow to "recruit former police officers to a paramilitary group 'protecting' fake demonstrations against the government."

⚡️Media: Military helicopter crashes (https://kyivindependent.com/military-helicopter-crashes-in-russian-occupied-crimea/)in Russian-occupied Crimea, killing 2.
Two pilots were killed after a Mi-28N military helicopter crashed in Russian-occupied Crimea, BBC Russia reported on May 12.

⚡️Euractiv: Internal EU memo puts total Ukrainian troop losses (https://kyivindependent.com/euractiv-internal-eu-memo-puts-ukrainian-troop-deaths-at-less-than-15-000/) at 13,000.
According to Euractiv, the memo says that an additional 35,000 Ukrainian servicemembers were wounded in action. [seems unbelievably low]

⚡️Major French alcohol seller to cease operations (https://kyivindependent.com/major-french-alochol-seller-to-seize-operations-in-russia/) in Russia.
The French company Pernod Ricard, one of the world's top alcohol sellers, announced on May 12 that it would cease operations in Russia.

⚡️Reuters: IAEA chief to present agreement (https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-iaea-chief-to-present-agreement-on-nuclear-plant/) on Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant to UN.
Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi will present an agreement to the UN Security Council aimed at protecting the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Reuters reported on May 12.

⚡️Financial Times: EU plans to build internet cable to reduce Georgia's reliance on Russia (kyivindependent.com/financial-times-eu-cable-geogia/).
The European Union is planning to build an internet cable in the Black Sea's international waters to improve Georgia's digital connectivity and reduce its reliance on Russia, the Financial Times reported on May 12.

Ukraine war latest (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-ukraine-makes-localized-advances-in-the-bakhmut-area-as-tensions-escalate-between-wagner-and-russian-defense-ministry/): Ukraine makes localized advances near Bakhmut as tensions between Wagner, Russian Defense Ministry continues

⚡️Russia attacks critical infrastructure (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-attacks-critical-infrastructure-in-khmelnytsky-oblast/) in Khmelnytsky Oblast.
A critical infrastructure facility was hit in western Ukraine's Khmelnytsky region in the early hours of May 13 during Russia's latest attack on Ukraine, local military administration reported on Telegram.

⚡️Spiegel: Germany to send 2.7 billion euros in record military aid package (https://kyivindependent.com/spiegel-germany-to-send-2-7-billion-euros-military-aid-package-to-ukraine/) to Ukraine.
Citing undisclosed government sources, Spiegel reported on May 13 that the aid could include
20 Marder armored personnel carriers,
30 Leopard 1 tanks, 18 wheeled howitzers,
four more IRIS-T air defense systems, and
hundreds of guided missiles for this system.

⚡️Kuleba holds phone talk with Blinken (https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-holds-phone-talk-with-blinken-over-weapons-supplies/) over weapon supplies.
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on May 13 that he spoke with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to coordinate the next weapon supplies to Ukraine, with "close attention" to the importance of providing F-16 fighter jets and the necessary steps to start training Ukrainian pilots.

⚡️Zelensky arrives in Rome (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-in-rome-to-meet-top-officials-pope-francis/) to meet top officials, Pope Francis.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was in Rome on May 13 for a short visit during which he plans to meet Italy's President Sergio Mattarella, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and Pope Francis.

⚡️CNN: Russia tried to destroy Patriot system (https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-russia-tried-to-destroy-patriot-system-with-hypersonic-missile/) with hypersonic missile.
Russia tried to destroy an advanced U.S.-built Patriot air defense system with a hypersonic missile, two undisclosed U.S. officials told CNN on May 12. The attack failed, as Ukraine's air defense intercepted the missile using the Patriot system.

⚡️G7 increase help to Ukraine to $44 billion. (kyivindependent.com/g7-countries-increase-help-to-ukraine-to-44-billion/)
Financial chiefs from the G7 countries – the U.S., the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, and Japan – expanded help for Ukraine to $44 billion in 2023 and early 2024.

⚡️Russian media: Helicopter crashes (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-helicopter-crashes-in-bryansk-region/) in Bryansk region.

Look at the hardware losses! 27 artillery gone + vehicles etc

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Police in St. Petersburg have set up a 'drone control' unit - Russian media.

The German concern Rheinmetall has established a joint venture with Ukroboronprom to repair, maintain and manufacture armored vehicles, including tanks. CEO Armin Papperger told the Handelsblatt newspaper that the relevant "contracts have been signed." Rheinmetall will hold a 51% stake in the company, and will also take over its management.
According to the newspaper, in the coming days the concern expects to sign contracts for two more joint ventures that will work on ammunition and air defense systems.

🔥The Russian Defense Ministry reports that two pilots were killed in the crash of a Mi-28 attack helicopter in occupied Crimea

NATO has already begun to admit that Sweden's accession veto will not be overridden before the Vilnius summit - Sveriges Radio

Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjarto said that due to Ukraine's listing of the Hungarian bank OTP Bank as a war sponsor, it will be "very difficult" for Budapest to agree with the EU on new sanctions against Russia.

A Ukrainian fighter from the 3rd Brigade, the commander of the 1st Assault Battalion, said that during the successful operation in Bakhmut, Russian mercenaries from the Wagner PMC were the first to flee, while the regular Russian army tried to fight back.

Zaluzhnyi said that the losses of the Russian occupiers would have stopped any country: "There is only one conclusion: the cheapest thing in this country is human life. In our country, on the contrary, it is the most expensive."
He also admitted that Ukraine has lost many professional soldiers: "The war is started by career soldiers, and finished by teachers, engineers, accountants. This is what is happening now."

🇵🇱 An unknown object was spotted in Polish airspace. Preliminarily, it was a reconnaissance balloon flying from Belarus. It lost radar contact near the town of Rypin. The Territorial Defense Forces were called in to search for it

🇨🇭 A Swiss parliamentary committee recommends easing the rules for arms re-exports. Re-export to countries that grossly violate human rights or pose a danger to civilians is prohibited.
This would allow the transfer of Swiss-made weapons to Ukraine, but not to Russia.

Zaluzhny's comment "He also admitted that Ukraine has lost many professional soldiers: "The war is started by career soldiers, and finished by teachers, engineers, accountants. This is what is happening now." does indicate Ukraine has lost perhaps the majority of its pre-invasion professional army (assuming this has been correctly reported]. The recent European guesstimes of 13k Ukrainian dead and 30k injured just don't seem believable to me.

According to https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=ukraine&_cf_chl_tk=m3LG5aKd.JUC.MXpZFjTRVW.00JTuJWy.epkkT.Xzc-1683979300-0-gaNycGzNC5A

Ukraine currently has about 200,000 active military personnel and 500,000 overall incl reservists. 35,000 airforce, 15,000 navy.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The EU proposed to stop deliveries from the Russian Federation to Germany and Poland via the Druzhba oil pipeline, — Bloomberg.
They have already stopped receiving oil from there, but the European Union wants to make it official. The publication explained that exceptions remain only for Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic.

🇧🇪The Belgian government has agreed to a 92 million euro aid package for Ukraine, which will be paid from proceeds from frozen Russian assets

Slovakia canceled unilateral restrictions on the import of agricultural products from Ukraine

Russia was returned to the International Paralympic Committee, — the press service of the RPK citing the decision of the appeals tribunal.
In its decision, the tribunal cited procedural inaccuracies and a "lack of evidence" of violations by the Russians.
The IPC disagrees and plans to return to the issue of suspending the membership of the Paralympic Committee of Russia in September.

❗️The agreement between Ukraine and Russia on protecting the Zaporizhzhia NPP will be presented at the UN Security Council this month, — Reuters.
Diplomats with whom the agency spoke called the agreement "very promising" and noted a change in the position of Ukraine, which previously insisted on the complete demilitarization and deoccupation of the station by the Russians.
According to diplomats, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi is in constant contact with Switzerland, which this month chairs the UN Security Council.

Egypt refuses to close airspace to Russian planes carrying weapons, — The Wall Street Journal.
In preparation for the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the Russians are transferring weapons from Syria, particularly over the territory of Egypt.
Last year, Turkey, Jordan, and Iraq closed their skies to Russian planes bound for Syria, forcing them to fly up to 2,000 extra miles. But Egypt went to meet the aggressor.
Egypt, the world's second-largest recipient of US military aid, has ignored requests from Washington to close its airspace to Russian warplanes.

Pernod Ricard has stopped all spirits exports to Russia again and indicated it will cease activities there in the coming months.

The Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, supported the idea of the Minister of Justice of Iran, Amin Hossein Rahimi, to create a "sanctions club".

❗️Cyprus and Malta canceled the "golden passports" of almost fifty Russians and Belarusians under sanctions, — Der Spiegel
It is about nine Russian investors and 34 members of their families in Cyprus. The authorities of Malta canceled the passports of two persons.

🇩🇪The German government has formed another package of military aid to support Ukraine of about 2.7 billion euros.
According to preliminary data, the package will include:
▫️20 BMP "Marder";
▫️30 Leopard tanks;
▫️4 IRIS-T-SLM air defense systems (12 launchers and hundreds of missiles to them);
▫️200 reconnaissance UAVs;
▫️100 armored vehicles;
▫️100 rear vehicles;
▫️15 Gepards;
▫️A large amount of ammunition.

A Su-34 fighter jet crashed in the Bryansk region of the Russian Federation, — Russian propaganda agency TASS.

They are saying that in the Bryansk region the Russians have shot down 2 of their own helicopters and 2 of their own planes.

15 Gepards

From wikipedia. Looks like a handy little beast.

The Gepard has been deployed by Ukraine in its defense against the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.[4] The first three Gepards arrived in Ukraine on 25 July 2022.[5] A test showed that a supply of ammunition manufactured in Norway could not be fired by the Gepard, with a subsequent test of improved ammunition scheduled for August 2022.[6] By 20 September 2022 thirty Gepards and 6,000 rounds had been delivered.[7] According to Ukraine's Armed Forces about 50,000 Norwegian made rounds for the Gepard had been received by 26 September 2022.[8] Photos from the German tabloid Bild of the Gepard with a Ukrainian crew include high-explosive incendiary (HEI) rounds (where the projectile is yellow with a red band) made by e.g. Norwegian Nammo.[9][10]
According to a Ukrainian defense attache in the United States the Gepard has been used to "great effect" against the "relatively crude" loitering munition believed to be Iranian-made Shahed-136.[11] The Conflict Intelligence Team considers it likely that a Gepard destroyed a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile as it was targeting a Kyiv power plant on 18 October 2022.[12] One unit is credited with destroying more than ten Shahed-136 drones and two cruise missiles.[13] Such systems are more effective and hence more cost-effective than more advanced and expensive air defence systems such NASAMS or IRIS-T missiles, while being less politically sensitive as they only have a limited effective range.[14] The London-based think tank, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) wrote: "In general, gun systems are preferred over missiles where possible due to the much lower cost per engagement and higher availability of ammunition compared with SAMs and MANPADS".[15]
On 2 December, Germany recovered seven additional Gepard tanks from the "scrap pile" to be refurbished and sent to Ukraine, bringing the total units sent to Ukraine at 37. They will arrive in spring 2023. Obtaining ammunition is difficult as Switzerland claims that owing to its neutrality it should forbid Germany to transfer its stock, and refuse to supply its surplus,[16] forcing Germany to rely on other sources for ammunition.[17] However, on 15 December Rheinmetall committed to a new factory in Germany to sidestep the Swiss re-export ban.[18] A deal to start production was signed in February 2023.[19]
The Gepards in Ukraine turned out to be very effective against Shahed-136 drones; the radar can detect them 16 kilometres (9.9 mi) away and it takes as few as six rounds to shoot them down with a similar number needed to destroy a cruise missile.[20] One of the Gepards downed 10 Shaheds in a single engagement.[21] RUSI noted that the Gepards were particularly effective against the drones.[22] Ukraine allegedly suffered its first Gepard loss in April 2023 to a Lancet loitering munition.[23], although the full video shows the Gepard relatively intact after the impact.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1657368327826571273