Ukraine Invasion: Part 39

[MagicFox]

38 filled up quick. Welcome all to 39 🇺🇦

I wonder how the world will cope when it stops buying Chinese goods, and what effect that will have on China?

How is it that Russia will be hosting the UN Security Council next month, is this an April fools joke? Why are they still on the UN Security Council? 🤯

It's definitely a 🙄but seems it's their turn and ultimately a vote to chuck them out would get vetoed by the likes of China...who might be thinking to the future.

It would however be nice if nobody turned up for a month or at least turned their backs on the likes of Lavrov.

Thank you for that video upload Igotjelly. Very interesting and reassuring as well.

Sweden and Finland have much more robust militaries than most NATO countries precisely because they couldn't count on NATO. Let's hope they don't fall into the same faulty thinking about what they need militarily that Germany and others have.

No fear of that - long memories here!

Turning up and simultaneously turning their backs would be lovely

Indeed

Two UAF motorized infantry brigades have completed training and are back in Ukraine with their new combat vehicles. Now we wait to see how long before off-road maneuvers are possible in southern Ukraine.

Two Ukrainian brigades equipped with Bradley IFVs, Stryker AFVs returning to Ukraine after training, Pentagon says

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-31-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept on March 31 that likely aims to support the Kremlin’s attempts to promote a potential anti-Western coalition.

• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continues to use high-profile public statements to portray Belarus as a sovereign state despite its current de-facto occupation by Russian forces.

• Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov promptly rejected Lukashenko’s suggestion of a ceasefire and indicated that the Kremlin is not interested in serious negotiations.

• Russian Security Council deputy chairman Dmitry Medvedev leveraged comments about sending peacekeeping forces to Ukraine to continue information operations that portray the West as escalatory.

• Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

• Russian forces made gains within Bakhmut and Ukrainian forces regained positions in the Bakhmut area. [I wonder if the plan is to regain lost ground and then take over Bakhmut when the offensive starts. It's apparently so devastated now that there are few places to defend. It's also apparently got snow atm unless someone was pulling an April 1 joke!]

• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk frontline.

• Ukrainian strikes against Russian concentration areas in southern Ukraine are likely causing the Russian grouping in the area to change tactics to avoid the risk of strikes.

• Russian officials continue to state that Russian forces have no plans for a formal second wave of mobilization.

• Russian officials continue to send Ukrainian children to camps in Russia.

The 2nd image is from 31/03/23

China has an incentive to drag out the Ukraine war so that US is engaged on 2 fronts

What would China declaring ‘war’ against Taiwan look like? I mean it’d be over very quickly wouldn’t it? China’s massive military against tiny Taiwan? Realistically, what could or would the US do? Not much I’d think.

Whilst we’d hope that the world might stop buying Chinese produced goods, the likelihood is countries would. Just look at how Russian and Belarusian players can play at Wimbledon this year. That ban didn’t last long despite how much worse the atrocities inflicted on Ukraine are one year later.

So much of global stability rests on the US and I am deeply fearful for what will happen in the next presidential election.

@DrBlackbird

I mean it’d be over very quickly wouldn’t it? China’s massive military against tiny Taiwan?

Might be worth recalling pretty much everybody assumed the Russian's would roll over Ukraine in three days, and it's also worth bearing at least some Chinese military equipment shares some similarity with that fielded by Russia and that Taiwan has lots of western (especially US) supplied weapons.

IMHO it would not be a walkover...

I don’t think Taiwan would be a walkover either. It would be interesting to know the military demographics. China could be mirroring Russia in having a call up of young men from the outer regions.

There is always the prospect of a conventional war between the US and China restricted to the vicinity of Taiwan and nowhere near other states territorial waters.

The big difference between Taiwan and Ukraine is that an invasion of Taiwan would require an amphibious assault (something it’s unclear if China have the capability for). A build up would be impossible to hide.

There was an interesting assessment (I know for the life of me can’t remember where) that said it’s possible Taiwan would essentially hold their chip industry as hostages and threaten to burn the factories etc. if China genuinely threatened an assault.

And Russia are losing men at the rate of 7-10 to 1 due to the defensive capabilities of the UAF. I have no idea how the Chinese army is organised, but I’m not aware of any major military successes, lots of stalemate. They seem to be pretty handy with iron-clad staves on the Indian border, but that’s not going to cut it with US support. At least the US has proven ability to fight wars on two fronts thousands of miles from home and at the same time.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Prosecutor General: Russian troops committed (https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutor-general-russian-troops-committed-9-000-war-crimes-in-bucha-district/) 9,000 war crimes in Bucha district.

Bucha massacre survivors: ‘Why do Russians hate us so much?’ (https://kyivindependent.com/bucha-massacre-survivors-why-do-russians-hate-us-so-much/)

President Volodymyr Zelensky, along with leaders of Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, and Moldova, have honored the memory of Bucha residents who died during the Russian occupation.

⚡️Japan expands (https://kyivindependent.com/japan-expands-ban-on-exports-to-russia-includes-drones-metals/) ban on exports to Russia, includes drones, metals.
The updated list includes drones, metals, optical and measuring devices, boilers and machinery, construction equipment, vehicles, air- and spacecraft and their parts, as well as electrical equipment.

⚡️Southern Command: Explosions in Crimean Dzhankoi hinder (https://kyivindependent.com/southern-command-explosions-in-crimean-dzhankoi-hinder-russias-transfer-of-weapons/) Russia's transfer of weapons.
Recent explosions in the Crimean town of Dzhankoi have restricted Russia's ability to transport military equipment and ammunition, particularly Kalibr missiles, said Ukraine's Southern Command spokesperson Natalia Humeniuk.

⚡️Moscow Patriarchate representatives again block access (https://kyivindependent.com/untitled-3/) to Kyiv monastery.

⚡️Kyiv Independent podcast 'Power lines' nominated (https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-independent-podcast-power-lines-nominated-for-british-arias-award/) for British ARIAS award.

Ukraine changes combat bonus system, soldiers warn it might lower morale (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-soldiers-criticize-changes-to-combat-bonus-pay/)
An overhaul of how the military determines bonus pay may cause more harm than good, six servicemen from multiple brigades told the Kyiv Independent.
This change, which came into force in February, takes away the money that many service members need to both support their families and get vital military gear, they said. As a result, some are concerned, disillusioned or considering going back to a civilian job

⚡️Slovenia, Ukraine sign declaration (https://kyivindependent.com/slovenia-signs-declaration-supporting-ukraines-move-toward-eu-nato-membership/) supporting Ukraine’s move toward EU, NATO membership

⚡️Europol identifies (https://kyivindependent.com/europol-identifies-150-suspects-of-war-crimes-in-ukraine/) 150 suspects of Russian war crimes in Ukraine.

⚡️Air Force: Ukraine starts using (https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-starts-using-us-made-smart-bombs-kits/) US-made 'smart bomb' kits.
Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat confirmed on March 31 that Ukraine was already using U.S.-made Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range (JDAM-ER) guided kits for aerial bombs.
JDAMs are wing kits that convert simple free-falling bombs into guided ammunition, improving accuracy thanks to a GPS helping the bomb adjust its course while approaching the target.

⚡️CNN: French presidential source says (https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-french-presidential-source-claims/) China 'only game-changer' in Russia's war against Ukraine.

Ukraine's military repelled more than 30 Russian attacks and conducted strikes against two Russian air defense systems and a radar station over the past 24 hours.

⚡️IMF approves (https://kyivindependent.com/imf-approves-15-6-billion-program-for-ukraine/) $15.6 billion program for Ukraine.
Around $2.7 billion will be immediately disbursed, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) wrote in its statement, to sustain economic and financial stab

⚡️CNN: Russia names (https://kyivindependent.com/untitled-5/) US as main security threat in new foreign policy doctrine.

⚡️Reuters: US could announce (https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-more-than-2-billion-new-military-aid-for-ukraine/) more than $2 billion new military aid for Ukraine.
A new $2.6 billion U.S. military aid package that could include air surveillance radars, anti-tank rockets, and fuel trucks could be announced on April 3, Reuters reported, citing undisclosed U.S. officials.

⚡️Top US general says Ukraine victory unlikely (https://kyivindependent.com/top-us-general-says/) this year.
U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley said in an interview with Defense One that Ukraine is unlikely to expel all Russian troops from its territory this year.

⚡️General Staff: Ukrainian forces repel 70 Russian attacks (https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-3/).

⚡️Russian Defense Minister says 'measures being taken' to increase ammunition stocks (kyivindependent.com/russian-defense-minister-says-measures-being-taken-to-increase/).

Personnel up a bit, 8 artillery lost.

UNITED24 Telegram

The authorities of Argentina have begun to refuse Russian citizens to extend their tourist stay massively, — the head of the consular department of the Russian embassy in the republic, Georgy Polin.

Since the start of the full-scale invasion, the US has trained more than 7,000 Ukrainian soldiers, – CNN

❕ Warsaw and Seoul agreed to produce Korean K2 Black Panther tanks in Poland.
The plant in Poland will manufacture tanks not only for its own needs but also for export.

🇫🇮 Finland will officially join NATO in the coming days, said Alliance Secretary General Stoltenberg

After the arrest of a WSJ journalist, Poland urged its citizens to leave Russia

China opposes the placement of nuclear weapons on the territory of third countries, the representative of the People's Republic of China in the UN Security Council.

❗️Russian spy Sergei Cherkasov, who tried to infiltrate a tribunal in The Hague to collect information about the investigation against the Russian Federation, was detained in the Netherlands. It turned out that he had previously collected data on Israel.

A draft law on strengthening the US and NATO military presence in the Black Sea has been submitted to the US Senate

❗️Possibility of a phone conversation or meeting between Zelensky and Xi Jinping not ruled out, – Chinese Ambassador to EU Fu Cong

NATO officially bans its employees from downloading TikTok on work devices, – CNN

The Netherlands handed over 11 sapper dogs to Ukraine

The US will not provide ATACMS to Ukraine, but is considering other options - US General Milley.
"ATACMS has a longer range, but there are other systems that can provide the same range."

From April 1, Russia will become head of the UN Security Council for a month. Its permanent representative Vasily Nebenzya will be empowered to convene, open and hold meetings, and sign documents adopted by the Security Council.

The countries of the "Bucharest Nine" called on the US to increase its military presence on the eastern flank of NATO, — Air Force

Live: Ukraine Telegram

In the village of Posad-Pokrovske in Kherson region, power engineers working to restore the power grid hit a Russian mine. Two of them were killed and one was wounded. [the dangers of post-liberation reconstruction :/]

The Wall Street Journal calls on Washington to expel the Russian ambassador and all Russian journalists from the United States in response to the arrest of Evan Gershkovich, who is accused of espionage by the FSB.

Georgian Prime Minister speaks "the same language as Moscow" - President Zurabishvili

Lukashenko said that Western countries were allegedly trying to drag Belarus into a war. To protect the country, "negotiations with the Russian president on the return of nuclear weapons to Belarus have been intensified."

A Russian soldier who participated in the Russian war against Ukraine was not allowed into Moldova.

🇬🇪The European Commission is allegedly inclined to grant Georgia the status of an EU candidate, provided that the country's authorities do not take new steps that contradict the European course. [this is a rumour atm]

British intelligence: Russian military command's plans to expand Donbas territories under its control during winter offensive failed

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Ukraine has ordered 100 Rosomak armored personnel carriers from Poland, the Prime Minister of Poland said.

IMHO it would not be a walkover...

Not sure if that’s a relief or a route to escalation? But if it means that we’re seeing more sabre rattling than actual intent by Xi Jinping, that’s definitely reassuring. It’d be a major blow to technology everywhere if Taiwan burnt its chip factories down.

I believe Taiwan's topography is not flat but comprises rugged shorelines and mountains, unlike Ukraine which is much flatter. Natural advantage for the Taiwanese defenders. I wonder how motivated Chinese soldiers will be against the Taiwanese army - will the Chinese army also need rear units to shoot their infantry forward? Presume they will try to overwhelm with air power.

Feels like a bloodbath.

It was extensively war-gamed in January, based do the projected situation in 2026.

War game suggests Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail at a huge cost to US, Chinese and Taiwanese militaries

We need to do more to deter it. The recent agreement to provide Australia with US/UK-designed nuclear fast attack subs pissed off the Chinese for this reason.

MissConductUS, thanks for the link. Thankful for the great military minds who have war gamed the Taiwan invasion scenario.

“Once the war begins, it’s impossible to get any troops or supplies onto Taiwan, so it’s a very different situation from Ukraine where the United States and its allies have been able to send supplies continuously to Ukraine,” said Cancian. “Whatever the Taiwanese are going to fight the war with, they have to have that when the war begins.”

Feel like a hot and brutal war that will escalate between super powers to infinity 10x as fast as in Ukraine.

Do you know if the Republicans, if they came into power, would defend Taiwan as strongly as the war games suggest. Presume China will be seen as a bigger and traditional foe with more US commercial and strategic interests at risk than in Ukraine.

Do you know if the Republicans, if they came into power, would defend Taiwan as strongly as the war games suggest. Presume China will be seen as a bigger and traditional foe with more US commercial and strategic interests at risk than in Ukraine.

The policy of strategic ambiguity means that politicians don't normally go on the record about what they'd do if China invaded Taiwan, but I think most Republicans would defend Taiwan, both because of the commercial interests and to maintain trust in the security arrangements we have with Japan and South Korea. This of course excludes Trump, who is crazier than an outhouse rat.

We have to hope against hope it doesn't happen, the repercussions would be horrific for all.

Is anybody else irritated by all the stupid April fools stuff on Twitter? Given the seriousness of the situation and the issue of disinformation I'm really shocked to see otherwise sensible people being so twattish

Another military aid package was reported yesterday,

The United States is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine, totaling $2.6 billion, which may include air surveillance radars, anti-tank rockets and fuel trucks.

One sentence that stood out to me - Additionally, the new military aid package may consist of precision aerial munitions, bridging equipment, recovery vehicles, and additional rounds for NASAMS air defenses.

The aerial munitions will be JDAM-ER bombs, and the bridging and recovery vehicles will be to support offensive operations.

@MagicFox they are all out today, and right now I am getting stuck into a couple of very unpleasant debates on FB. In fact, yesterday I was labelled a”f***g Nazi butcher” by some wanker with a Putin profile picture.