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Ukraine Invasion: Part 39

985 replies

MagicFox · 25/03/2023 22:44

38 filled up quick. Welcome all to 39 πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

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MagicFox · 03/05/2023 16:47

Exactly, and they're using it as an excuse for justifying escalatory retaliation etc etc at exactly at the time they might be put under more pressure

OP posts:
newjobnewstartihope · 03/05/2023 17:24

MagicFox · 03/05/2023 13:22

Russia says it's ukraine but.. let's see

Of course they do πŸ™„as if a drone would just be able to fly over the Kremlin and kill putin

Surplus2requirements · 03/05/2023 17:50

It couldve been Ukraine, they'd be unlikely to admit it anyway at this stage even had it been successful.

It could also be anti Kremlin Russian opposition.

There's always the possibility of a Russian false flag and we know nothing more than it probably happened so it's a case of pick what you want to believe i guess.

blueshoes · 03/05/2023 18:22

@notimagain thanks for that article. I have a vague recollection of it around the time it happened ...

The following year, in August 1988, having served 14 months, Rust was released by the Soviet Union as a goodwill gesture to the West following the nuclear treaty signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev.

I guess Gorbachev is a different kettle of fish from Putin.

Mb76 · 03/05/2023 19:48

I don’t believe for a second that Ukraine would have attempted to. Russia is playing dirty as always. They need to show their people what villains Ukrainians are to keep justifying the war and Russian soldiers dying in droves.

at this point this is such a ridiculous and pathetic attempt to throw shade on Ukraine it’s laughable, but I imagine putin’s lot will believe anything they see on tv

blueshoes · 03/05/2023 20:12

Ukraine have got bigger fish to fry than a bit of amateur CGI set against the backdrop of the Kremlin.

Greenshake · 03/05/2023 20:47

I agree. This whole thing stinks to high Heaven.

MissConductUS · 03/05/2023 20:51

All of the CCTV cameras in Moscow are controlled by the Kremlin, so they wanted that video (which shows two blokes climbing up the dome for some reason) to be released. It's also well knows that Putin does not live in the Kremlin.

A $300 million security package was announced today.

Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine

It's mostly ammo, but some kit that's clearly for the counteroffensive, like demolition munitions for obstacle clearing.

Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine

The Department of Defense announced additional security assistance to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3383288/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine

Surplus2requirements · 03/05/2023 20:54

@Mb76 I'm not sure about that tbh.

While the assassination attempt story is obviously laughable damage to the Kremlin would be considered by many as a feather in Ukraines cap and after more than a year of Russia targeting towns and cities across Ukraine it is hardly an escalation.

Not sure about the CGI either. The Kremlin is supposed to be one of the most protected buildings in the world and its deeply embarrassing anyone got anything anywhere near it. I'm not convinced the Russians would make this up.

If a false flag to garner outrage a hospital or maternity unit in Moscow would work so much better and the attempted assassination sounds like the best spin they can come up with in a situation out of their control.

I do think anti Kremlin Russians are more likely than Ukraine but we'll probably never know for sure.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 03/05/2023 21:56

Seems Zelenskyy nipped into the NL on his way down from Finland.

Mb76 · 03/05/2023 21:58

@Surplus2requirements well I am Ukrainian so I’m am obviously biased- this is something I’m open about.

this is one of the reasons why really value this thread - it’s a great place to get a balanced view on the things in the media as well as moral support

now, I’ve been to Moscow about a dozen times between 1992 and 2022. I’ve seen Kremlin. It is heavily guarded. It is also huge. Mobile phone signals around it are jammed. I simply can not fathom how Ukraine would be able to get their two drones over there.

it could be plausible that some disgruntled Russian oligarchs are behind this. But I’m still leaning towards the false flag. Just my opinion. I hope we learn the truth someday

minsmum · 03/05/2023 22:31

I am biased as well, having watched what Russia and Putin are capable of in the last year, reading about their past atrocities in other countries I will automatically not believe anything they say. It's the boy who cried wolf write large.
Actually if it was Ukraine good for them, unlike the missile strikes on Ukraine no one died

Surplus2requirements · 03/05/2023 23:54

Mb76 · 03/05/2023 21:58

@Surplus2requirements well I am Ukrainian so I’m am obviously biased- this is something I’m open about.

this is one of the reasons why really value this thread - it’s a great place to get a balanced view on the things in the media as well as moral support

now, I’ve been to Moscow about a dozen times between 1992 and 2022. I’ve seen Kremlin. It is heavily guarded. It is also huge. Mobile phone signals around it are jammed. I simply can not fathom how Ukraine would be able to get their two drones over there.

it could be plausible that some disgruntled Russian oligarchs are behind this. But I’m still leaning towards the false flag. Just my opinion. I hope we learn the truth someday

I certainly don't want to take anything away from your 1st hand knowledge and experience and while our media is infinitely more open than in Russia truth is always the first casualty of war.

I'm well aware of the disgusting underhandedness of the Kremlin and the mad fairy tales spun by the Russian State controlled media but I'm not convinced that a very near miss on the Kremlin is really the story theyd really like to be telling.

Spinning it as an attempted assassination is clearly ludicrous but as a hit on the most iconic Russian building it is credible and imo justified with huge symbolic significance.

Who from is another question altogether but even if it was Ukraine, which i doubt, where is the escalation? After more than a year of Russian assassination squads, attacks on hospitals, maternity units, schools, theatres, markets, evacuation hubs, civilian infrastructure and more I don't want to even think about.

Whoever it was I'm only sorry they didn't punch a bloody great hole in the dome

L1ttledrummergirl · 04/05/2023 07:14

Maybe it's a way for Putin to show Russians how good the defences are. Put in a weak attack on yourself so you look good. All part of the propaganda.

Mb76 · 04/05/2023 07:23

Yeah something doesn’t add up here. Majority of Ukrainians don’t want Putin assassinated, that would be too quick and easy a death for him. And earn him martyrdom.
Ukrainians want justice, they want him captured and trialed in Hague for his crimes.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/05/2023 09:01

The Kremlin have certainly done a great job of releasing all that CCTV footage.

I am reminded yet again of a perceptive Russia-watcher's comments that Russia wants people to never believe what's bein did. Inculcate a sense of powerlessness and uninterest in the Government's actions.

Fladdermus · 04/05/2023 09:53

Swedish media are reporting that the Kremlin have inadvertently confirmed that the whole thing was staged by them. I don't have full details as I can't open the article fully until I get home. I'll check it out and share asap.

Chatillon · 04/05/2023 10:32

Inadvertent + Confirmation = Leak?

Greenshake · 04/05/2023 11:46

Looking forward to the Fladdermus update!

Fladdermus · 04/05/2023 11:52

Sadly not so dramatic as I hoped. The Study of War Instute says they've outed themselves with their respons to it. Every other response to their failures has been chaotic and slow. This one was smooth and well planned and makes a perfect justification to Russian society for further mobilisation.

https://marcusoscarsson.se/uppgifter-putin-avslojad-begick-stor-tabbe/?fbclid=IwAR2raEIrgx18UBDTj7cD3ptylmv-4m9Zs7-Y1OZBWZTTbC-lYA5nDYB5yQc

UPPGIFTER: Putin avslΓΆjad – begick stor tabbe

β€œHar sΓ€rskilt misslyckas”…

https://marcusoscarsson.se/uppgifter-putin-avslojad-begick-stor-tabbe?fbclid=IwAR2raEIrgx18UBDTj7cD3ptylmv-4m9Zs7-Y1OZBWZTTbC-lYA5nDYB5yQc

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/05/2023 12:53

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-3-2023

Key Takeaways

  • Russia accused Ukraine of conducting a drone strike against the Kremlin.
  • Russia likely staged this attack in an attempt to bring the war home to a Russian domestic audience and set conditions for a wider societal mobilization. (as @Fladdermus says)
  • The rapid and coherent presentation of an official Russian narrative around the strike suggests that Russia staged this attack in close proximity to the May 9th Victory Day holiday in order to frame the war as existential to its domestic audience.
  • Some Russian nationalist milbloggers seized on the Kremlin drone strike to call for Russian escalation in the war despite the fact that Russia currently lacks the military capability to do so.
  • The Kremlin may be planning to conduct other false flag operations and to increase disinformation ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive in order to increase domestic support for the war.
  • Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin baselessly claimed on May 3 that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has already begun, likely in order to exploit information space anxieties and call for increased Russian military support for Wagner’s Bakhmut offensive.
  • Russian forces conducted a Shahed-131/136 drone strike on the night of May 2 to 3.
  • Russian forces continued limited ground attacks near Kreminna.
  • Russian forces continued to make gains in and around Bakhmut and continued to conduct ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
  • Russian forces conducted heavy air and artillery strikes against west (right) bank Kherson Oblast.
  • Russian officials continue to incentivize military service by providing social benefits to families of participants in the war.
  • The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed that it prevented a β€œterrorist” attack against three Crimean officials.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/05/2023 13:07

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚑️ Russian state-controlled media claims Kremlin attacked by Ukrainian drones.
Russian state-controlled media RIA Novosti claimed on May 3 that Russian President Vladimir Putin's Kremlin residence was targeted by Ukrainian drones.

⚑️Zelensky: 'We didn't attack (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-we-dont-attack-putin-or-moscow/)Putin** or Moscow.'
President Volodymyr Zelensky denied Russia’s claims that the Kremlin residence of Russian President Vladimir Putin was targeted by two Ukrainian drones overnight on May 3.

⚑️SBU, police disband 9 bot farms (https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-police-disband-bot-farms/) spreading disinformation.
The National Police and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) disbanded nine bot farms spreading information about fake threats in Ukraine, the Prosecutor General's Office reported on May 3.

Everything we know about Ukrainian attacks inside Russia | This Week in Ukraine Ep. 5 (
(
Episode #5 of "This Week in Ukraine" is dedicated to Ukrainian attacks deep behind enemy lines – on Russian soil, and in occupied Crimea. Host Anastasiia Lapatina is joined by the Kyiv Independent's reporter Francis Farrell

Wounded soldiers fight for recovery in Zaporizhzhia rehabilitation center (https://kyivindependent.com/wounded-soldiers-fight-for-recovery-in-zaporizhzhia-rehabilitation-center/)

⚑️Media: Zelensky to visit (https://kyivindependent.com/media-zelensky-to-visit-germany-on-may-13-14/) Germany on May 13-14.
President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Berlin on May 13 at the invitation of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, German newspaper Der Tagesspiegel reported.

⚑️Update: 23 killed, 46 injured (https://kyivindependent.com/update-kherson-may-3-attack/) in Russian attack on Kherson Oblast.

⚑️US to provide Ukraine with additional $300 million (https://kyivindependent.com/us-to-provide-ukraine-with-additional-300-million-in-military-aid/) in military aid.
The package includes more ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), additional howitzers, artillery and mortar rounds, as well as small arms and small arms ammunition.
According to the Pentagon press release, Washington will also provide Ukraine with anti-tank and anti-armor weapon systems, anti-tank guided missiles, Hydra-70 aircraft rockets, and more.

⚑️The Kyiv Independent’s journalist Asami Terajima wins (https://kyivindependent.com/the-kyiv-independents-journalist-wins-2023-george-weidenfeld-prize/) 2023 George Weidenfeld Prize.
β€˜I work, then I cry’: Exhausted medics near Bakhmut fight for every life (https://kyivindependent.com/i-work-then-i-cry-exhausted-medics-near-bakhmut-fight-for-every-life/)
Battle of Bakhmut: Ukrainian soldiers worry Russians begin to β€˜taste victory’ (https://kyivindependent.com/battle-of-bakhmut-ukrainian-soldiers-worry-russians-begin-to-taste-victory/)

⚑️Media: Zelensky lands (https://kyivindependent.com/media-zelensky-lands-in-netherlands/) in Netherlands.
President Volodymyr Zelensky landed in the Netherlands late on May 3, reported NOS news organization.

⚑️IAEA: Russia deploys military equipment, (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-deploys-military-equipment-explosives-at-zaporizhzhia-power-plant/) explosives at Zaporizhzhia power plant.
Russian troops have placed military equipment, weapons, and explosives in the turbine department of the unit four of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, according to the information from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

⚑️Media: Russia cancels (https://kyivindependent.com/media-russia-cancels-may-9-celebrations-in-at-least/) May 9 celebrations in at least 21 cities.

⚑️Media: Bulgaria (https://kyivindependent.com/media-bulgaria-to-lift-ban-ukrainian-products/) to lift ban on Ukrainian imports.
Bulgaria will lift its ban on Ukrainian imports once the European Commission's market stabilization measures come into force, Euractiv reported on May 4.

Higher losses today and into double figures on artillery and vehicles.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 39
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/05/2023 13:17

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Zelenskyy: We did not attack Putin, we will leave all the decisions to the tribunal
"We are not attacking Putin or Moscow, we are fighting on our territory, defending our villages and cities. We don't even have enough weapons for that... That's why we didn't attack Putin, we'll leave it to the (international) tribunal," the President said.

❗️After weeks of disputes, the EU agreed on a scheme for the joint purchase of ammunition for Ukraine for 1 billion euros
The details of the agreement reached by EU representatives are currently unknown

The US will not criticize strikes on Russian territory, β€” Blinken
The US Secretary of State added that they are leaving it to Ukraine to decide how to defend itself and how to return territories. Considering that Ukrainian men, women and children are attacked every day.

The President of Ukraine met with the Speaker of the Parliament of Finland, Petteri Orpo, and the Prime Minister of Norway, Jonas Gahr StΓΈre.

This week, the Israeli early warning system about a missile attack went into operation in Kyiv, the Ambassador of Ukraine to Israel Yevhen Korniychuk reported, the Jerusalem Post reports.
The Ukrainian ambassador noted the personal participation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in ensuring the quick completion of the project.

Since the beginning of the war, not a single HIMARS system has been destroyed

The Air Force of the Ukrainian Armed Forces shot down 18 Shahed-136/131 drones and one reconnaissance aircraft overnight. In total, the Russians used up to 24 drones

Canada handed over the first batch of demining equipment worth 22.5 million Canadian dollars ($16.5 million) to the State Emergency Service, β€” Embassy of Canada in Ukraine.
The equipment will be used to clear agricultural land.

❗️Bloomberg: The European Union is discussing a new sanctions mechanism against third countries that help Russia circumvent Western restrictions. They will focus on those states that cannot explain the sharp increase in trade in essential Russian goods or technologies.

Train No. 109, which was fired upon yesterday at the Kherson railway station, arrived in Lviv without delay.
The train crew acted quickly and accurately, a few minutes before the collision, they transferred two passengers with reduced mobility from the evacuation car to the shelter and then promptly unhooked the burning car from the train, put the passengers on board, and left the station with only 14 minutes delay, despite the chaos and air traffic alert.
The wounded conductor Roman has already been discharged from the Kherson hospital and returned to his native Mykolaiv. His condition is stable.

Peskov said that the US was to blame for the drone attack on the Kremlin

The highlights from Zelenskyy's speech in The Hague:

▫️We want to make this war the last in the world! And we will do it!

▫️We all want to see another Vladimir here, the one who should be convicted of crimes.

▫️In April alone, the Russian occupiers committed 6,139 war crimes. As a result, 207 people died, including 17 children.

▫️We must stop the crime of aggression. End the impunity that drives dictators to aggression.

▫️Only yesterday, the Russian Federation killed 23 civilians, and 48 were injured. Again, we are talking about civilians.

▫️We must transform the experience of the Nuremberg process into new work rules. That is why we are taking care of creating such a tribunal for the Russian Federation – this should guarantee non-repetition of such aggression.

▫️We need an actual full-fledged tribunal, real justice, not a hybrid one.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 39