Ukraine Invasion: Part 39

[MagicFox]

38 filled up quick. Welcome all to 39 🇺🇦

Live: Ukraine Telegram

🇨🇭🇺🇳For the first time in the country's history, Switzerland has assumed the presidency of the UN Security Council, replacing Russia. The Swiss presidency will last for a month, and on June 1, the UAE will take over.

The occupiers in Crimea claim that their air defense system shot down a drone in the west of the peninsula. The so-called "head" of Sevastopol, Razvozhayev, claims that "the fleet forces in cooperation with air defense are now repelling an attack by enemy UAVs on the outer raid. [as of early evening last night]

One child is still left in Avdiivka, the boy's parents are in hiding and constantly changing locations
According to Mayor Vitaliy Barabash, 1781 people remain in the city despite the constant shelling. These are the people who receive humanitarian aid. Another 50-70 people remain in the city, but do not apply for humanitarian aid.

The number of Russian troops in Belarus has decreased from 11,000 to 2,800. State Border Guard Service spokesman Andriy Demchenko says that the occupiers train their soldiers at training grounds there and then send them to the combat zone in eastern Ukraine.

The US and Germany do not want concrete decisions on Ukraine's NATO membership yet - dpa
According to diplomats, opponents of a concrete membership prospect explain their position by saying that this goal is not realistic at the moment and could distract from much more important support for Ukraine. In addition, there is a risk that new commitments to NATO could provide Russia with arguments for an even more aggressive war.

The Russian city of Saratov has decided not to hold a parade on May 9, and will instead hold concerts under the windows of veterans, according to Governor Roman Busargin.

Defense Minister Reznikov believes that because of its defeats on the battlefield, Russia may make another "gesture of goodwill" under the pretext of a man-made disaster on its territory.

In the Netherlands, a drunk driver with a Ukrainian "license" named Boris Johnson and valid until 3000 was detained. At the bottom was the inscription "Good evening, we are from Ukraine!". You can buy such "driver's licenses" in tourist shops in Ukraine. [lol!]

For those interested in the China/Taiwan question I would really recommend this episode. 3 experts talk through the Chinese and Asian rearmament, what an invasion of Taiwan would look like and the likelihood of it occurring and when.

From the Chris_O Twitter:

1/ Sanctions on the Russian aviation industry are leading to an increasing number of malfunctions and emergency landings, due to a lack of maintenance and technical support, and an acute shortage of spare parts. Safety is said to be gradually deteriorating.

2/ The Russian newspaper Novaya Gazeta reports that sanctions have had drastic effects on Russian airlines, which overwhelmingly rely on Western-made aircraft. Boeing and Airbus both cut off access to technical support and the supply of spare parts was stopped.

3/ Some spare parts are still available through "grey schemes", such as wheels and brakes. However, industry insiders say that such grey imports are arrive "much slower and cost more". Engine parts cannot be imported, forcing airlines to do costly maintenance work themselves.

4/ This affects Russian-made aircraft too, such as the Sukhoi Superjet 100 and MS-21, which both mostly rely on foreign-made components. Fuel filters are reportedly unavailable, leading the airlines to simply wash them and wait for them to fail instead of replacing them.

5/ The Russian aviation industry is replying on spare parts coming from places such as the UAE, China, Turkey and Iran. However, these reportedly take 3-4 times longer to arrive and cost 3-4 times as much. The supply chain is being choked off as sanctions are tightened.

6/ According to Novaya Gazeta, "spare parts suppliers have begun requiring intermediary companies in "friendly countries" (Turkey, UAE, China, Kazakhstan) to indicate the final recipient of spare parts, up to the tail number of the aircraft."

7/ "A number of countries (Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan) are simply in the "block" with large suppliers of aircraft parts and materials as violating sanctions."

8/ The Russian government compensated for these problems in the first year of the war with Ukraine by allocating them 172 billion rubles ($2.15 billion) from the federal budget, of which 100 billion ($1.25 billion) was intended to subsidise domestic transportation.

9/ However, this has only put off an inevitable crunch, which now seems to be arriving. Novaya Gazeta reports that airlines are cannibalising their aircraft for spare parts, while the planes that are still flying are suffering from decreasing reliability.

10/ As Novaya Gazeta comments, "Since the beginning of 2023, news feeds have increasingly received reports of malfunctions, depressurization, emergency landings of Western-made airliners from Russian operators: Aeroflot, Rossiya, Pobeda, Azur, UTair and others."

11/ The increased costs are also now likely to be passed on to passengers, with the Russian government mooting a 15-30% rise in the cost of domestic flights in Russia this summer. /end

and someone's comment below:

There will be a glorious "trickle down" effect. Here is one impact: Oil/gas extraction and refining sites require engineers to rotate to these by air. Air transport is the only option for pipeline repairs and emergency access to remote sites during Winter.

I'm almost afraid to listen @Igotjelly

China's aggression to Taiwan frightens me.

It’s very measured, thorough and honestly not very scary.

Thanks for the reassurance - Ill listen (when I get a bit of free time!)

There will be a glorious "trickle down" effect. Here is one impact: Oil/gas extraction and refining sites require engineers to rotate to these by air. Air transport is the only option for pipeline repairs and emergency access to remote sites during Winter.

Splendid. One of those jobs where you cannot 'WFH'.

There are reports UNCONFIRMED that Ukraine has begun fighting back in Bakhmut. It's not entirely impossible; there have been rumours the last few days of indications of Ukraine regaining ground.

Interview with Patrushev who has suddenly become visible again: iz.ru/1504870/viktor-filippov/sokhranenie-ukrainy-v-kachestve-gosudarstva-v-plany-ssha-ne-vkhodit

Spoiler alert: it sounds CRAZY

Projectionism.

Indeed. I cannot read beyond the first few paragraphs because my head hurts too much and I start to lose my grip on truth.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-2-2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) is increasing its production of precision missiles for use against Ukraine.
• Shoigu likely seeks to deflect intensifying accusations that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) cannot provide sufficient ammunition to Russian forces.
• Russian reactions to a claimed strike against Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces Commander Major General Ihor Tantsyura suggest Russian ultranationalists are attempting to frame any Russian operations as delaying potential Ukrainian counteroffensive actions.
• The Kremlin reportedly distributed a new manual instructing Russian state media on how to cover an upcoming potential Ukrainian counteroffensive that, if real, indicates the Kremlin is setting informational conditions both for an effective Russian defense and to mitigate shocks in the Russian information space from Ukrainian successes.
• UN member states, including key Russian partners like China, India, and Brazil, voted to adopt a resolution on April 26 that acknowledges Russia as the aggressor of the war in Ukraine.
• Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces made marginal gains near Bakhmut but did not advance within the city itself.
• Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk front, and Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted limited and local counterattacks in the Avdiivka area.
• Ukrainian forces continue to operate on and around islands in the Dnipro River delta in Kherson Oblast.
• Russian government officials are continuing to introduce new social benefits to veterans and their families to incentivize further military recruitment efforts in Russia.
• Likely Ukrainian partisans targeted an unspecified Zaporizhia Oblast occupation Ministry of Internal Affairs deputy head in Melitopol.

NOTE: Correction: ISW reported on May 1 that US officials assessed that Russian forces have suffered 100,000 casualties – 80,000 wounded and 20,000 dead– in fighting for Bakhmut since January 2023 based on statements from National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby.[20] National Security Council deputy spokesperson Sean Savett later clarified on May 1 that the figures account for Russian casualties throughout Ukraine since January 2023.[21]

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Next round (https://kyivindependent.com/next-round-of-grain-deal-negotiations-scheduled-for-may-3/) of grain deal extension negotiations scheduled for May 3.

Ukraine war latest: Parliament extends martial law; 8 assault brigades 'fully formed' (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-parliament-extends-martial-law-8-assault-brigades-fully-formed/)'

Investigative Stories from Ukraine: Journalists find Russian servicemen allegedly responsible for launching missile killing colleague (https://kyivindependent.com/investigative-stories-from-ukraine-journalists-find-russian-servicemen-allegedly-responsible-for-launching-missile-killing-colleague/)
In this edition of “Investigative Stories from Ukraine,” discover how RFE/RL found Russian servicemen allegedly responsible for launching the missile that killed journalist Vira Hyrych on April 28 last year; an investigation by Ukrainska Pravda into Russian elites close to the country's President, Vladimir Putin, who allegedly own luxurious villas on the French Riviera; and more.

⚡️Russian media: Explosion wounds top proxy official (https://kyivindependent.com/explosions-wounds-top-official-in-russian-occupied-melitopol/) in Russian-occupied Melitopol.
The Russian-installed deputy head of the Internal Affairs regional office in Zaporizhzhia Oblast was reportedly hospitalized after opening his gate where an explosive device had been planted, according to Russian media reports.

Patriot air defense faces its toughest challenge ever in Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/patriot-air-defense-faces-its-toughest-challenge-ever-in-ukraine/)
The wait is over — after almost a year of refusals and hesitation, Western-provided MIM-104 Patriot air defense systems have finally arrived and become operational in Ukraine.
Patriots will be put to a serious battlefield test for the first time in at least 20 years, after two decades of upgrades and modifications.

⚡️Denmark to send $250 million worth of military aid (https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-sends-250-million-worth-of-military-aid-to-ukraine/) in record package to Ukraine
The package will include mine clearance machines, ammunition, field bridges, and funds for air defense to Ukraine, according to the report.

⚡️ Unexploded mine kills 2 farmers (https://kyivindependent.com/unexploded-device-kills-2-farmers-in-kharkiv-oblast/) in Kharkiv Oblast.

⚡️General Staff: Ukrainian forces repel 20 Russian attacks (https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-ukrainian-forces-repel-20-russian-attacks/).

⚡️ EU Commission bans import of some Ukrainian grain (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-commission-bans-import-of-some-ukrainian-grain-until-june-5/) until June 5.

⚡️ Explosion reported (https://kyivindependent.com/explosion-reported-near-russian-occupied-simferopol/)near** Russian-occupied Simferopol, Crimea.
An explosion reportedly occurred in a former training base for border guards near the village of Shkolnoye, a few kilometers from the Simferopol airport, on May 2, according to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

⚡️Railway line reportedly sabotaged (https://kyivindependent.com/railway-line-sabotaged-in-bryansk-region/) in Russia's Bryansk region resulting in a train derailing, according to Russian media reports on May 2.

⚡️Reuters: Putin not invited to King Charles' coronation (https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-russia-not-invited-to-charles/).

⚡️EU to announce 1 million shell production plan (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-to-announce-1-million-shell-production-plan-per-year/)per** year.
Thierry Breton, the European Commissioner for Internal Market, will announce the plan to meet Ukraine's military needs and replenish the EU's reserves on May 3, the AFP reported.

⚡️Official: S-300 missile systems spotted (https://kyivindependent.com/official-s-300-missiles-systems-spotted-in-the-direction-of-zaporizhzhia/) being transferred in direction of Zaporizhzhia.
Five trucks transporting S-300 missile systems were spotted in Russian-occupied Mariupol heading toward Zaporizhzhia, Petro Andriushchenko, an advisor to the mayor of Mariupol wrote on Telegram on May 2.
S-300 are Soviet missile systems designed for air defense. However, Russia has been using the repurposed S-300 to attack targets in Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/why-promised-western-air-defense-wont-close-all-holes-in-ukraines-sky/).

⚡️NYT: Russian proxies reinforce counterintelligence measures (https://kyivindependent.com/nyt-russian-authorities-reinforce-counterintelligence-in-occupied-territories/).
Russian forces imposed additional restrictions on civilians in the occupied territories and intensified counterintelligence efforts ahead of the anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, the New York Times reported.

⚡️Washington Post: Zelensky says (https://kyivindependent.com/washington-post-3/) White House did not inform him about intelligence leaks.

⚡️Local authorities report (https://kyivindependent.com/local-authorities-report-oil-depot-fire-in-russias-krasnodar-region/) oil depot fire in Russia's southwestern Krasnodar region.

⚡️Air Force: 21 out of 26 Iranian-made Shahed drones downed (https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-shoots-down/) over Ukraine

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Russia likely shifting targets (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defense-ministry-5/) in coordinated mass missile strikes.
Russian missile strikes are likely shifting from targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure to military, industrial, and logistical infrastructure, the U.K. Defense Ministry wrote on May 3.

⚡️Ukraine rises in World Press Freedom Index (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-rises-in-press-freedom-index/).
Ukraine rose from 106th to 79th place in the 2023 World Press Freedom Index published by Reporters Without Borders on May 3.

⚡️Zelensky visits Finland (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-visits-finland/) for summit with Nordic leaders.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

Negotiations on the grain agreement are scheduled for May 3. It is expected that they will be attended by all parties — Ukraine, the Russian Federation, Türkiye, and the UN, — Reuters citing a source in Kyiv.

The USA and Germany do not yet want specific decisions regarding Ukraine's membership in NATO, — dpa
According to diplomats, opponents of the concrete prospect of accession explain their position because this goal needs to be revised and can distract from the much more substantial support of Ukraine. In addition, there is a risk that new commitments to NATO could give Russia arguments for an even more aggressive war.

Thanks to oil exports, Russia will resume purchases of currency for reserves already in May, — Bloomberg.
It is reported that the Russian Federation will buy mainly yuan.

Ukraine and Poland launched an interstate power transmission line, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced.

🇪🇺 The European Commission banned the import of wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower from Ukraine to Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.

US President Joe Biden's administration plans to announce a new $300 million military aid package for Ukraine tomorrow, — Politico.
The package will include artillery and mortar ammunition, trucks, heavy equipment, spare parts, and Hydra-70 missiles

The risk of escalation of the armed conflict between NATO and Russia is quite real, — Chairman of the Committee of the Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces Mark Milley in an interview with Foreign Affairs magazine.

"We are glad to hear that Speaker McCarthy agrees with the vital thesis about continued support for Ukraine," White House press secretary Karin Jean-Pierre said.

⚡️"21 out of 26 Shahed-136/131 UAVs were destroyed this night", — Commander of the Air Force
Drone launches were from the Bryansk region and the Sea of Azov.

At night, a fuel tank caught fire in the Krasnodar region, Russia
The fire area of a tank with oil products in the Krasnodar Territory is 1.2 thousand square meters. The fire has been assigned the highest level of severity.

Russians will be left without Tinder — the dating service owner is leaving the Russian Federation in June.
"It's not good for a trusted brand to continue operating in a country where the International Criminal Court has indicted a head of state," Jeff Perkins, chief executive of Match Group shareholder Friends Fiduciary Corp., told Reuters.

Kyiv has become less willing to share information with Washington, fearing new leaks that could hinder a future counteroffensive, — POLITICO, citing two European officials in contact with Ukraine's military leadership.

The Russian Federation struck the "Epicentr" hypermarket in Kherson, — the Ministry of Internal Affairs.
3 people died, 5 more were injured.

This year, Russia took first place in the rating of "crony capitalism" prepared by The Economist.
This rating shows what percentage of the country's GDP is accounted for by the fortunes of businessmen close to the government, who receive economic rent — profit from industries traditionally associated with the state, such as the fuel and energy complex, natural resources, construction and real estate, banks, etc. To date, the publication has counted 311 such billionaires.
In general, the share of "crony capitalism" in the world has tripled over the past 25 years and is 3% of the world's GDP.
40% of such capital, logically, comes from autocratic countries such as Russia, China, or India.

The Belarusian court sentenced the former editor-in-chief of the opposition Telegram channel Nexta, Roman Protasevich, to eight years in prison
Two more participants in the Nexta case — Yan Rudyk and Stepan Putila — were sentenced in absentia to 19 and 20 years in prison, respectively. Now they are abroad.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

The American channel Vice News interviewed Maria Lvova-Belova, the Russian Presidential Commissioner for Children's Rights, whose arrest warrant was issued by the ICC for the deportation of Ukrainian children.

The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine legislatively recognized the political regime in Russia as "ruscism" and condemned it.

Russian propagandist Solovyov calls for "denazification" and partition of Germany

Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk, Commander of the Air Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: German IRIS-T Division has destroyed over 60 air targets since October last year.

🕞From May 5 to May 8, a round-the-clock curfew will be introduced in Kherson, - the head of the Kherson Regional Military Administration.
It will be in effect from 20:00 to 6:00, and the city will be closed for entry and exit.

‼️The occupiers shelled Kherson again, hitting the city's railway station. Preliminary, one person was killed and three others were wounded.

The Russian Presidential Administration said that last night Ukraine allegedly tried to strike the Kremlin with drones.
They reported that electronic warfare had disabled both drones. No one was injured by the falling debris. It also did not affect Putin's schedule.

Just popping up to see if anybody knows anything about the reports that Ukraine have supposedly committed a drone attack on the Kremlin, seems unlikely...

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-latest-putin-assassination-attempt-as-kremlin-residence-attacked-by-drones-moscow-claims-12541713

It looks like it's true, nobody harmed

Russia says it's ukraine but.. let's see

At then moment bear in mind the context that 1) russia is gearing up for 9 may parade celebrations and 2) there are rumours of a (soon? Already?) Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Ukraine said they didn't do it and the footage supplied is very (too) clear. Maybe I am a suspicious type but it seems to me to be a very stupid assassination attempt unless they expected Putin to be sitting on the roof at 3am

Yes, agree, it doesn't seem likely at all.

I’m fairness the Al-Qaeda leader was assassinated because he was sat on his balcony.

@Igotjelly true but Putin comes across as being in a bunker and having to go through everyone else to get to him type

Oh for sure, he’s a massive shitebag 😂