Ukraine Invasion: Part 39

[MagicFox]

38 filled up quick. Welcome all to 39 🇺🇦

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Russian social networks published a video of an explosion at an oil depot in the Krasnodar Territory, which was attacked by drones at night.

Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Podolyak linked the Kremlin's statement about the drone over the Russian President's residence to the Russian leadership's preparation of a large-scale terrorist attack.
He also noted that Ukraine's leadership is watching with interest "the growth of incidents and excesses taking place in different parts of the Russian Federation."
"The appearance of unknown unmanned aerial vehicles at energy facilities or on the territory of the Kremlin can only indicate the underground work of local resistance forces," Podolyak emphasized.

Moscow imposes a ban on the launch of UAVs, drones can be used only by the decision of the state authorities – Moscow mayor

In Russia, fires broke out overnight at the Ilsk oil refinery in the Krasnodar Territory and at the Novoshakhtyn oil products plant in the neighboring Rostov Oblast.

A warehouse with fuel and lubricants burns in Stavropol, Russia

CIA Director William Burns held a closed briefing for US senators on the drone attack on the Kremlin, said Mark Warner, chairman of the US Senate Intelligence Committee.
"We still don't have much information. But at least up to this point, we have no indication that this attack was organized by the Ukrainians," Warner said.

Zap NPP.

Washington Post Telegram

• Talks to extend a deal to export Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea will take place in Istanbul on Friday, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said Wednesday.

• Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Ukrainian air defenses downed 17 of 18 Iranian-made drones launched by Russia at Ukraine overnight on Tuesday.

• Revelations about Russian combat deaths have spurred fears of even worse carnage in the coming months, during Ukraine’s anticipated spring offensive.

Spike in Russian combat deaths fuels fears of worse carnage to come

(https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/02/russia-ukraine-combat-deaths/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=telegram)The rate at which Russian forces are being killed or wounded in Ukraine has spiked in recent months, according to estimates disclosed by the White House this week, underscoring how ferocious the combat has become and suggesting the carnage could get even worse with Kyiv’s long-planned counteroffensive to retake occupied territory.

Such a scenario could compound the already staggering number of military casualties suffered on both sides of the war, officials and analysts say, a figure that may be greater than 360,000 dead and injured combined since the war began, according to a tally of the most recent Western assessments to become public.

Those assessments come as the United States and its allies continue to provide Ukraine with an ever-expanding arsenal of weapons intended to inflict devastating losses on Russia’s army.

I think TBH the starter for ten with the supposed drone attack on the Kremlin is what weapon was used? Does the UK AF have anything in it's orbat that can fly from Ukrainian held territory into the centre of Moscow.

If they have gone to the effort of developing something with the legs to do that you'd expect they would have also made the effort to provide a rather more spectacular explosion than appears on the CCTV.

There's then the whole issue of how it got through what is rumoured to be layered SAM belts around Moscow centre (though Russian, so of questionable quality) and also how did the system cope with almost certain satnav degradation/denial?

It's not impossible (I guess) that some brave souls launched something local to the Kremlin but that still leave the ?? about satnav and local Air Defence.

I suppose it is another one of those "never say never" but the smart money would suggest a false flag operation.

⚡️The Kyiv Independent’s journalist Asami Terajima wins (https://kyivindependent.com/the-kyiv-independents-journalist-wins-2023-george-weidenfeld-prize/) 2023 George Weidenfeld Prize.
‘I work, then I cry’: Exhausted medics near Bakhmut fight for every life (kyivindependent.com/i-work-then-i-cry-exhausted-medics-near-bakhmut-fight-for-every-life/)
Battle of Bakhmut: Ukrainian soldiers worry Russians begin to ‘taste victory’ (kyivindependent.com/battle-of-bakhmut-ukrainian-soldiers-worry-russians-begin-to-taste-victory/)

I hope it is true that the unconfirmed reports that Ukraine is fighting back in Bakhmut are true. The above feels so despairing for the Ukr soldiers and medics in Bakhmut.

Timothy Snyder's take on the Kremlin explosions:

https://snyder.substack.com/p/explosion-over-the-kremlin?utm_medium=email

Don’t mess with the flag..

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1654165287493566466?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1654165287493566466%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

@notimagain I wish MN had a 'like' button

That is how you discipline an animal effectively. Address the offending behaviour immediately and unequivocably.

On the feasibility issue, Ukraine hit the Engles air force base twice with long-range weapons.

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-ukraine-war-vladimir-putin-drone-attack-hits-russias-engels-airbase-for-second-time-in-a-month/

From Anton Gerashnkomo Twitter

Information appeared that the recent drone attack on the airfield in Bryansk region led to one An-124-100 plane being completely destroyed and the other one being damaged.

Each of these planes is worth about $70 million. By different estimates, Russian air forces had no more than 12 of these. They cannot be produced or repaired in today's Russia.

Good.

mumbles doesn't work with the Ducks of War. They think my toes are the best thing since ... anything.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1383quc/ru_pov_prigozhin_on_the_losses_of_pmc_wagner/

• Warning - Link contains distressing/graphic images

This comes up with a request for me to log in and confirm i'm over 18. Considering how much gratuitous violence there has been on social media etc. related to the war can you give a summary of what the link is?

It's Prigozhin in full flood angrily ranting over the dead bodies of his soldiers and cursing Shoigu and Gerasimov with the live video of the BBC article quoted above. Apologies it has a lot of dead Russian Wagner soldiers.

Fab thank you 😊 sorry I’ve become so nervous and I trusting 😂

It has English subs - you can sense that he knows he is losing all the swagger has gone. But not for the faint-hearted. I can't see him lasting much longer which is no bad thing !

It feels like he is auditioning for a role in Dune.

That's good.

Going back to our discussion of warlords and civil wars in general, IIUC one of the advantages of having a single head of state still actually in control, is that there is someone to surrender. Someone who can make the deals and whose word ends the war.

One of the (many, many) problems with warlord periods is that there isn't one person who can end the war. It's like whack-a-mole.

I'm not saying Putin is close to ending the war, but the role of "person who can end the war" still exists - and this is probably better than it not existing.

I'm wondering if Putin is starting to fight for his life actually, or if he's still got an iron grip. Given the coloured information he receives and the rise of Prigozhin, I wonder if Prigozhin is actually extending his influence in quite solid ways. Im not sure this tantrum is genuine, given that he has used tens of thousands as untrained and unarmed foot soldiers and shot the ones that were slow. There have been indications that Prigozhin has considerable influence enough to push governmental officials in directions they don't want to go, and he seems to have some powerful allies.

That face! Maybe it was Prigozhin that sent those drones 🤪

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-4-2023

Note: statement about the ISW's methodology https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/statement-isw-methodology

Key Takeaways

• Russia conducted another Shahed-131/136 strike against Ukraine on May 4.
• Russian officials are likely using the May 3 drone strike on the Kremlin to expand cancellations of parades for the May 9 Victory Day holiday.
• The Kremlin is reportedly continuing its overhaul of domestic security organs.
• US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines stated that Russian forces are likely unable to conduct a “significant offensive” in 2023 due to munitions and manpower shortages regardless of the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
• Russia and India reportedly suspended efforts to trade in rupees.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces made territorial gains south of Kreminna.
• Ukrainian forces likely conducted a limited counterattack southwest of Bakhmut.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut and along the Avdiivka–Donetsk City line.
• Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhia Oblast.
• The Kremlin is attempting to increase the production quotas of military supplies despite reportedly lacking the necessary manpower.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to announce new security measures in an effort to prevent partisan attacks in occupied territories.

Extra: Russia and India reportedly suspended efforts to trade in rupees. Reuters reported on May 4 that Russia and India suspended months of negotiations because Moscow does not want to accumulate over $40 billion in rupees by the end of 2023. Russia reportedly views rupees as not convertible.[27] An unnamed Indian government official stated Russia would prefer to settle bilateral trade with India in Chinese yuan or another currency and that Russia is increasingly trading in United Arab Emirate dirhams. The suspended negotiations likely concern India’s payment to Russia for spare parts and two S-400 air defense systems.[28]

I clicked, I suggest you don't and I've reported it.
A warning would have been good.

I don't like using people who have died to make political points (of any kind), there is no need to gawp over those poor souls.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Media: Russia cancels (https://kyivindependent.com/media-russia-cancels-may-9-celebrations-in-at-least/) May 9 celebrations in at least 21 cities.

⚡️Peskov: Russia considering (https://kyivindependent.com/peskov-russia-considering-variety-of-options-on-how-to-respond-to-alleged-ukrainian-drone-attack/) 'variety of options' on how to respond to Kremlin drone attack.

⚡️Zelensky criticizes (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-criticicizes-hybrid-tribunal/) idea of 'hybrid' tribunal during speech at the Hague.

⚡️Ukraine's anti-corruption agency designates (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-anti-corruption-agency-designates-hungarian-bank-as-international-sponsor-of-war/) Hungarian bank OTP as 'international sponsor of war.’
The decision was made due to the bank's decision to continue operating in Russia and adherence to a credit law directly referring to the proxy regimes in Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

⚡️Odesa Mayor detained (https://kyivindependent.com/odesa-mayor-detained-over-embezzlement-charges/)over** embezzlement charges.
Ukraine's High Anti-Corruption Court ordered a 60-day detention of Odesa Mayor Hennadiy Trukhanov on May 4 and set bail at Hr 13 million (about $352,000), the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) reported. [he's had a dirty rep for a long time apparently]

⚡️Two explosions reported (https://kyivindependent.com/explosions-reported-in-sevastopol-russian-proxy-claims-drone-attack/) in Sevastopol, Russian proxy claims drone attack.

⚡️US denies (https://kyivindependent.com/us-denies-russias-accusations-of-coordinating-kremlin-drone-attack-eu-chief-diplomat-urges-moscow-not-to-escalate-war/) Russia's accusations of coordinating Kremlin drone attack, EU urges Moscow not to escalate war.

⚡️Bloomberg: EU seeks to target (https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-eu-seeks-to-target-countries-helping-russia-evade-sanctions/) countries helping Russia evade sanctions.
The European Union is discussing a new sanctions mechanism aimed at third countries that are not doing enough to prevent Russia from bypassing restrictions already in place, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the issue.

⚡️Air Force reports destroying (https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-reports-destroying-ukrainian-bayraktar-drone-that-lost-control-over-kyiv/) Ukrainian Bayraktar drone that lost control over Kyiv.
One of the drones shot down over Kyiv late on May 4 was a Bayraktar TB2, used by Ukrainian forces, that had lost control "during a scheduled flight," Ukraine's Air Force reported.

⚡️ Official: Russia holds over 20,000 Ukrainian civilians hostage (kyivindependent.com/official-russia-holds-over-20-000-civilians-hostage/).
Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets predicted these estimates will increase after the liberation of the occupied territories since the residents have limited avenues to report arrests by Russian forces to ombudsman due to intimidation by the proxies.

⚡️FT: Indian oil shipping giant emerges by working with Rosneft (kyivindependent.com/ft-indian-oil-shipping-giant-emerges-by-shipping-russian-oil/).
Indian oil shipping company with mysterious origins became one of the largest tanker owners in the world, likely due to its ties with the Russian state oil company Rosneft, according to the Financial Times.
Gatik Ship Management, an Indian oil shipping company, went from owning two chemical tankers in 2021 to acquiring 58 vessels with an estimated value of $1.6 billion in April.

⚡️ SBU detains Voznesensk deputy mayor over embezzlement charges (https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-detains-voznesensk-deputy-mayor-over-embezzlement-charges/).

⚡️White House: US 'focusing on' (https://kyivindependent.com/untitled-36/) air defense for Ukraine.
According to Kirby, Ukraine's military shot down the majority of cruise missiles Russia launched at Ukraine in the last 48 to 72 hours using U.S. and Western-provided air defense capabilities.

⚡️Wagner boss Prigozhin publishes video (https://kyivindependent.com/wagner-boss/) of dead Russian soldiers, lashing out at Russian military leadership.
In an expletive-laden tirade, Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin blamed Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov and Defense Minister of Russia Sergei Shoigu for a "70 percent shortage of ammunition" on the battlefield in Ukraine and for the deaths of the soldiers.

⚡️Russian state media: Oil refinery in Krasnodar region targeted by drone attack (https://kyivindependent.com/oil-refinery-drone-attack-kransodar-krai/) again.
An explosion at the Ilsky Oil Refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Oblast was allegedly caused by a drone attack, Russian state media RIA Novosti reported on May 5.

⚡️City Council: Teenage girl injured by Russian shelling in Kramatorsk dies from her injuries (https://kyivindependent.com/city-council-teenage-girl-injured-by-russian-shelling-in-kramatorsk-dies-from-her-injuries/).

Prigozhin: Wagner will leave Bakhmut on May 10 due to lack of ammunition (https://kyivindependent.com/prigozhin-wagner-will-leave-bakhmut-by/). (https://kyivindependent.com/prigozhin-wagner-will-leave-bakhmut-by/)
The Wagner mercenary group will leave Bakhmut on May 10 due to lack of ammunition, founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said in a video published online by his press service on May 5. [let's see if he keeps to his word. It's not like he's a reliable individual]

Army of hired guns: How Russia’s 'PMCs' are becoming the main invasion force (https://kyivindependent.com/army-of-hired-guns-how-russias-pmcs-are-becoming-the-main-invasion-force/)
Private armies are illegal in Russia, so naturally, Moscow has been using them for decades. Now, it’s making them the main invasion force.

⚡️Ukraine retrieves bodies of 80 fallen soldiers (https://kyivindependent.com/untitled-37/).

⚡️Ukrenergo: Russian forces shell power station in Donetsk Oblast (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-shells-power-station-donetsk-may-5/) for more than 2 hours.
Russian forces shelled a power station in Donetsk Oblast for more than two hours on the morning of May 5, Ukraine's state energy operator Ukrenergo reported.

Ukrainian grain exports, and the mayhem they cause in Europe | This Week In Ukraine Ep. 6. (kyivindependent.com/this-week-in-ukraine-ep-6/)

⚡️NGO: First 3 of 16 crowdfunded air defense radars (https://kyivindependent.com/media-first-3-of-16-air-defense-radars-delivered-by-lithuania-to-ukraine/) delivered by Lithuania to Ukraine.

⚡️Media: Berlin bans display of Ukrainian, Russian flags (https://kyivindependent.com/berlin-bans-ukrainian-russian-flags-may-8-9/) on May 8,9.
The Berlin police will ban the display of Ukrainian and Russian flags near the city's three Soviet war memorials this upcoming May 8-9, the Berlin Morning Post reported on May 5.

⚡️Zelensky meets (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-meets-dutch-belgian-prime-ministers-signs-joint-declaration/) Dutch, Belgian prime ministers, signs joint declaration.

More losses for the 2nd day running and a lot of vehicles. 16 artillery too.