Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

[MagicFox]

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

Isn’t it British military command that supports Ukraine and Ben Wallace who is popular as defence minister. Hopefully that’s enough to secure Britain’s long term support for Ukraine. I questioned both Johnson’s and Truss’s support and saw it more as a convenient smoke screen / photo opportunities and a chance to ignore domestic crises.

Outrageous if he comes back. I'm not taken in by his support for ukraine bluster at all. The UK has a clear interest in supporting ukraine - Boris isn't the decider in that.

Cross post @DrBlackbird ! Exactly! Completely agree

Given the above posts, it’s interesting that Ben Wallace appears to have come out in support of Johnson.

Tom Tugendgat has come out in favour if Sunak. Supposedly he already has more than 100 endorsements.

Ben Wallace comes across as a nice guy.

At best, he’s misguided in his long-standing loyalty given that he’s a Johnson loyalist and one of the original gang of supporters who urged him to stand for the party leadership when he was still mayor of London. He ran the PM's first leadership campaign.

At worst, it’s political expediency as he knows that he gets to keep his job if Johnson comes back. There’s a good chance he won’t if Sunak becomes PM.

Well the optics re Johnson are exactly that he's "Support Ukraine" so I suppose as defence minister it makes sense. But there's more to Johnson that that, unfortunately. Wallace's motive is that he wants to remain as defence minister and he's been vocal that he wants the next PM to invest in the armed services. So not surprising that he might support Johnson (though i can't see he's said that explicitly, just implied he'd be inclined that way?)

FT reporting that markets are spooked at the thought of Johnson returning. What the uk and Ukraine needs is a calm and functional British government!

So far he has said that he is “leaning that way”, but his name has appeared on the tally that SKY is running. If Sunak wins and Wallace loses the job, I really am going to be worried.

Would Wallace lose his job if sunak wins?

I can't see why that would happen but maybe Im being stupid

That’s what Dr Blackbird said a few posts up.

She thought there would be a “good chance” of it.

Maybe Sunak would keep him in post because he’s doing a good job. But it’s a big ask to keep such a dedicated Johnson loyalist when Johnson himself is not known for generosity towards those he’s felt ‘betrayed’ him ie Sunak. Though Sunak is likely to be more confident so who knows, perhaps he’d be happy to leave Wallace as Defence. It’s just that with a Johnson win, his position is definitely guaranteed. With Sunak, that’s less certain.

Back to the pressing issue of what’s happening in the Ukraine….

Unfortunately all day Yesterday and today every time I’ve put LBC on they’ve had callers saying boris should come back. They have also had callers saying he shouldn’t but it’s been depressing how many still think he’s the beee knees :-(

Given how big,arre the whole thing, I really wonder if somene very influential somwere is orchestrating this, though usually things are cock-up rather than conspiracy imv.

But back to Ukraine indeed ... I won't be able to post regularly for a few days as we are on holiday. Hopefully our guest-friends will teach the ducks to quack in Ukrainian in the next days :-)

Bizarre* and sorry for other typos

Russian mobilised soldiers from Krasnodar complain that they have been "thrown out like dogs" in the fields of Ukraine, with no information, no orders, no radio, no ammunition and no medicine, and live in holes dug out with their bare hands, as they have no shovels

twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1583513294664785920?s=12

Long (22 minute) translation of a wounded conscripts experience from papers served to hospital. Sounds like hell on earth.
It's interesting though that despite his disillusion and disgust with the treatment of conscripts and the realisation that they've been lied to at every turn he never stops to question why they are in Ukraine or ponder whether the reasons given for the war are lies too, at one point he refers to being 300 meters from 'Ukrainians, Nazis, NATO troops and mercenaries' completely swallowing the party line about who they are fighting.

@Ijsbear have a lovely break. The ducks will be waiting for you when you get back. Lol at 'watery presents'.

There seems to be information trickling in today from Kherson.

Reports that the Russians are saying to get out the city today and are preparing for street fighting. Word seems to be thats possibly within as little as 48hrs. It also sounds like Ukraine are close to taking Mylove.

Obviously hard to say if any of this is remotely accurate but there does seem to be an increase in noise on twitter again about things happening and progress being made.

Here we go

Afp news agency at afp
#BREAKING Pro-Russian authorities urge Kherson residents to 'immediately' leave city
"Due to the tense situation on the front, the increased danger of mass shelling of the city and the threat of terrorist attacks, all civilians must immediately leave the city and cross to the left bank of the Dnieper river," said the region's pro-Russian authorities.

the increased danger of mass shelling of the city

....methinks that the mass shelling will be by Russia . Especially with Surovikin now in charge

and the terrorist attack, blowing the dam

God, I hope UAF can get their air defence systems in place double-quick. Wonder if the NASAMs have arrived in Ukraine yet.