Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

[MagicFox]

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

Thank you @minsmum that helps it make more sense in my head. Really do just have to keep helping Ukraine drive them back then :-(

37 children stolen from Kharkhiv have been returned by the Russians

Thanks for this thread. I tend to lurk but it always makes me feel more measured when the word “nuclear” has been thrown around in the press a lot and started to make it harder to feel level headed.
note to self stay away from the daily mail!some great thought provoking posts on here. It’s lovely that it’s remained this way after the way some of the other discussion threads have gone (the more sensational panicky ones)

Yes @Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway I think all we can do is keep arming Ukraine with what they need, keep the eyes of the world on Ukraine and keep supporting those very brave men and women

I cannot believe this. Such a relief for their parents. Perhaps the Russians do love their children too.

@MagicFox thanks for the new thread. Thank you all contributors for your reasoned and informative posts.

Just remember when the talk goes nuclear, that Ukraine have partially blown up one of Putin's most prize positions in the bridge and he hasn't gone nuclear, they have sunk the head of the black sea fleet and not gone nuclear, they have fired into Russian border towns and they have not gone nuclear. As soon as Russia go nuclear they know NATO will be involved and they will lose all support from China and India. They would actually do more damage militarily if they used airstrikes like they did on Monday on multiple military targets, than 1 random tactical nuke dropped on 1 military target. It would make no sense for Putin to use one.

With Russia upping the Negotiating rhetoric over the last week or so and considering what happened in Crimea, they haven't raised the nuclear rhetoric, this just shows they don't want to go nuclear otherwise they would just do it. They have nothing to gain from going nuclear and potentially everything to lose.

How do we think this war is going? I have seen people saying after Ukraine attacked the bridge that should of been putins nuclear trigger as it’s his prized possession, do we think we is reluctant to use them right now, but down the line if he sees no other option then he will?

I think the question is what would he gain from using one? Ukraine army are vastly spread out and militarily a nuke would not do much to gain them an advantage. It would also mean NATO would most likely get involved which is a big No No for Russia.

I think if Putin gets to the point he is so departed he starts thinking about using one, those around him will know his position is untenable and will be eyeing up the top job themselves. Becaus eof this I do think it's unlikely they would follow through with a nuke just to appease a Putin who has no political future.

Thanks @MagicFox and all. These threads are invaluable.

I agree, they are such a wealth of knowledge, common sense and comfort. It would be a great idea if when this ends, all the threads could be brought together in a start to finish compendium, almost like a work of social history. Does that make sense? The context would be really interesting too, as it would cover the Queen’s death, the move from Johnson to Truss and so forth.

Checking in as find these threads so you informative and calming.

@notimagain, that was a great article on the missile penetration aids/decoys. I'll have to keep an eye on that website.

Thanks for thread, MagicFox.

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Sadly, the fact that they're in Chat will mean that most of them will be gone already Not sure if they can be recovered - I guess not. Perhaps it would be a good idea to start asking for them to be moved somewhere more permanent once full.

Thank you for these threads. Lurker of varying avidity and very occasional poster under this and a previous name. Without the time and expertise to contribute meaningfully, almost all of the time. But very grateful for them.

Thanks for the thread @MagicFox . These threads are so helpful.

How corrupt is China? As we've seen from this war (and elsewhere in Lebanon), corruption is a massive competitive disadvantage. In a wired up, increasingly mobile world, people will flow to where they have the best chance of success, which tends to be in places with an efficient state. That's going to matter massively when the demographic bomb hits, along with climate change. One of America's strengths is the fact it's noisy, open and can attract people to live there.

Comprehensive state of play thread from Mick Ryan this morning: twitter.com/warinthefuture/status/1579990448520581121?s=46&t=81Rkma861rxahS3TTT_bLQ

@brokenpixuela (Ukrainian filmmaker, now solider, Volodymyr Demchenko): "No details,but we are actively preparing for a massive attack on the North and the joining of 🇧🇾 troops to hostilities.Everything is very serious so when I reading the positive forecasts of Western experts and medias,I get the feeling that we exist in slightly different realities" twitter.com/brokenpixelua/status/1579883473585963009?s=46&t=81Rkma861rxahS3TTT_bLQ

@maxseddon "The FSB claims to have solved the Crimean bridge attack case. It says Ukrainian military intelligence planned the bombing for months. 5 Russians, 3 Ukrainians, and an Armenian allegedly involved in it have been arrested" (links to report): twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1580077466609033216?s=46&t=81Rkma861rxahS3TTT_bL

PMK and saying thanks to the regular and knowledgeable contributors.

I see your points re the eventual archiving of the threads (maybe we should worry about it then, at some point in a hopefully better future). I don't think they should be moved out of chat until then. I had no idea they disappeared, I thought they were permanently on the net. Is this a possibility in the future @mnhq? Will the threads disappear?

Chat threads used to disappear after 30 days, I think. I think that was changed and a new '30 days' section was created instead.

Yes that's what I thought fladdermus

Checking into the new thread with a big grin!

Joining for the next rapidly filled up thread.

Globalisation had already taken a hit from populist nationalist governments (particularly Trump’s rhetoric on China) but Borrell’s speech, if acted upon, would seal its fate. It’s entirely understandable to reflect on the rise of untrustworthy superpower leaders, but globalisation was predicated on the idea that nations that traded with each other, didn’t wage war on each other. Putin broke that model. So, does this mean no more wealth of nations and back to each man country/region for themselves? Not sure that’s the way to security either.

Thanks for the new thread.