Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

[MagicFox]

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

Love that the Ukrainians built a sauna in a trench, like the Finnish army always does
twitter.com/Seveerity/status/1583155451713048582?t=1uQoD5S_UB_rzV6fhVH_cg&s=19

I knew the Ukrainians were preparing for winter with donations of winter gear from around the world. Didn't know they were also building saunas. :)

How entirely satisfactory.

A St. Petersburg Court has ruled that Finland, amongst other countries, was guilty of genocide during the Siege of Leningrad. Now I won't argue with that, it was a very bad thing, but takes some brass neck to rule on other countries committing genocide 80 years ago while their own country is currently committing genocide right now! yle.fi/news/3-12664441

Thank you, that’s the most satisfying thing I have read today.

Ahahahaha.

Thick as pigshit, eh?

Deflecting is what russia does best.

Really interesting analysis of the incident over the Black Sea the other day on today’s Ukraine the Latest podcast. Highly recommend. Basically Don Nichols explaining why he thinks it was a fuck up by the pilot and not an issue with the aircraft. Also talks about how Ben Wallace could be so sure it wasn’t intentional (basically that they probably heard someone on the radios after it being a bit ‘what the fuck are you doing you idiot”

It's pretty much a given that what was said over the air and much more will have been recorded, either onboard the Rivet Joint aircraft or by other assets, so I'd agree that Ben Wallace will have a pretty good idea what went on..

That said I really doubt anybody attempting to produce analysis for public consumption on this will have anything like enough information to rule in or out equipment problems or finger trouble...could be either, could be neither...

No fair enough, he was just going through quite how rare technical malfunctions of that type are (hands up I’m absolutely not a military analyst!) and explaining why a pilot error (someone fucking around) was more likely. In fairness I think he is an ex pilot so maybe a bit better informed than some journalists we see.

He was a helicopter pilot, so would be familiar with the process of weapons selection, arming and firing.

www.telegraph.co.uk/authors/d/dk-do/dominic-nicholls/

We don't even know if the motor ignited and it flew away from the aircraft or if it was jettisoned, but I think there would be less fuss about it if it was the second option.

Today's podcast also briefly discussed the implications of the US midterm elections and what President Biden has said about it. Sadly, they did not seem to have time to discuss the political insights about the situation I offered to them via email. 🙁

Just kidding. 😀

On BBC News at Six just now there was a report about a young Russian who had been called up but he said he refused to go and fight even if he would be sent to prison. He said he did not believe Russia was under attack so he was not going to fight Ukrainians - if Russia were under attack he would fight.

What was interesting was that although he had received some abuse and criticism on social media, he had also had a surprising amount of support.

It is heartening that some Russians realise they shouldn’t believe all the lies they are told, and that some feel brave enough to say ‘No’ in this way.

We need to work out how to support such Russians more. Making statements about Russians as a collective is really counterproductive.

MissConductUS · Today 18:29
Today's podcast also briefly discussed the implications of the US midterm elections and what President Biden has said about it. Sadly, they did not seem to have time to discuss the political insights about the situation I offered to them via email. 🙁

Just kidding. 😀

MissConduct, as far as I can see there would have been nothing wrong at all in you offering political insights about the situation for them to discuss! I am sure I am not alone in being grateful for the sharp but succinct commentary you offer here.

@Igotjelly

he was just going through quite how rare technical malfunctions of that type are (hands up I’m absolutely not a military analyst!) and explaining why a pilot error (someone fucking around) was more likely.

I wouldn't characterise "pilot error" simply as "someone fucking around"..it's much more complex a topic than that.

FWIW I think most mil and ex-mil pilots will fess up to having performed at least one "switches pigs" in their career...I know I did - reasons for it happening can range from distraction, through fatigue through to doing the routine switch selections on the one day you shouldn't do the routine switch selections....the trick is not to do it when you are carrying war rounds.

Maybe something similar happened to the Russian pilot, but outside of MoD and RAF it really is all guess work.

@ScrollingLeaves, the podcast host invited their American listeners to email their thoughts about the midterms, so it wasn't too cheeky for me to offer mine. Thanks for your kind words about my posts on this thread. It's a nice step up from MN's usual parking wars, AIBU, and celebrity gossip.

What the hell is happening on Twitter re: BoJo ?

are there bots pushing his re-election?

What is happening? I am not on Twitter

@Ijsbear it is absolutely mind blowing. These calls for Johnson must be driven by Russian bots. No British voter in their right mind would want that utterly incompetent and shambolic government led by Johnson back again. Christ almighty.

Every 4th Tweet on my Twitter is suddenly, out of nowhere, pushign for Bojo to be PM again. Previously I had very few political tweets turning up.

It's beyond suspicious.

I don’t understand why the Russians would want Boris (sorry if that’s naive)

No I don’t either, and I am, not embarrassed to say that in respect of Ukraine, I want him back.

Mine isn’t… in fact there’s a similar amount of anti Boris.

I don’t want him back by any means but I can’t see Rishi having the passion for supporting Ukraine that Boris and Liz Truss have had. Even if they were motivated by wanting to be Churchill/Thatcher respectively.

well Im glad that it's only my feed and not general Twitter then. Because it's astonishing how much has suddenly turned up

Neither Ukraine nor, more importantly, does any single ordinary British citizen benefit from missing in action 9 times out of 10 Johnson resuming as prime minister. Of course Russia wants him back. He’s utterly incompetent and easily manipulated. Just invite him to a party.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/russian-donors-conservative-party-liz-truss-sanctions_uk_6215f2e5e4b03d0c8030ce8b

wrp.org.uk/editorials/russian-oligarchs-gave-millions-in-donations-to-the-tory-party/

www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/26/boris-johnson-security-evgeny-lebedev-perugia-party

bylinetimes.com/2021/10/21/boris-johnson-and-the-lebedevs-a-funny-peculiar-friendship/?mc_cid=326c5d35c4

www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/16/carole-cadwalladr-boris-johnson-lebedevs-prime-ministers-defining-scandal

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7292639/Boris-Johnson-seen-barely-able-walk-partying-Russian-billionaires-villa.html

www.ft.com/content/796d4a8c-ffd9-11e9-be59-e49b2a136b8d

www.csis.org/blogs/brexit-bits-bobs-and-blogs/did-russia-influence-brexit
the UK administration appears to be “in denial” about Russian influence