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Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

990 replies

MagicFox · 11/10/2022 21:24

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

OP posts:
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52
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 22/10/2022 14:57

From Wartranslated:

Day 240, October 21st. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin broadcast

Battlefield Update
Ukraine is waiting for planned deliveries of weapons from partners. The enemy continues mindless attacks with heavy losses.
Svatove-Kreminna
Russia’s biggest concern was that UA would cut the supply line. RU managed to accumulate more troops (mostly recruits) and counterattacked. UA retreated to more advantageous defense positions awaiting weapon supplies.
The recruits’ advantage is their quantity, not quality. The enemy suffers heavy losses. The ratio is 6.5 RU to 1 UA soldier.
Shipilivka – Bilohorivka

A series of unsuccessful RU attacks from NE with heavy losses.
Bakhmut
RU shifted the action from NE to mostly E and SE trying to get to Bakhmut from the south.
Horlivka – Maryinka
Both sides exchange shelling and attempt sorties.
Zaporizhye
Continued shelling and drone attacks with no action on the ground.
Kherson
Journalists-collaborators were killed during yesterday’s shelling of the Antonovsky Bridge. The UA command stated that civilians do not come under such fire since it is carried out during curfew.
The situation in Kherson: despite the acknowledgment of difficulties from the RU military command and propaganda, RU continues to transfer troops to the right-bank bridgehead with unclear goals. These troops consist of regular military and mobilized personnel.
Is it some kind of trap for UA? Unlikely, as AF of UA cannot be lured into a trap by Russian statements. UA relies on its dependable intelligence data instead.
Nova Kakhovka dam is possibly mined by the RU military. There’s no 100% assurance it is so. If it were blown up, flooding could be more extensive than predicted earlier; both civilians and RU army would be affected.
Most importantly, the surge would demolish RU pontoon bridges which RU uses for supplies. This would guarantee the right-bank bridgehead is completely cut off from all possible supplies.
Information about mining could be used just as blackmail. RU seems to use this tactic a lot in the war: Chernobyl, Zaporizhye NP, and now NK dam.
Belarus
Belarus (BY) is preparing for an escalation of the conflict, accumulating ground forces, aviation, etc. UA is watchful and ready. Aresovych is skeptical BY is battle-ready at present. UA has been training its forces for weeks near BY border.
Anti-drone defense
Iranian drones can act as a martyr’s belt to damage civilian infrastructure. They were purchased by RF specifically to target such objects. Arestovych declined to comment on the readiness of the anti-drone defense of Ukraine: it is not subject to publicity.
From official sources: UA received from Germany the first radar systems IRIS-T and three systems TRML-4D to be delivered in the next months. Such systems detect and track up to 1500 various air targets within a 250-km radius simultaneously and ensure more precise responses.
UA will eventually find the solution to the Iranian drone attack. What can Russia do next? Iranian missiles do not change the present situation: RU has been shelling UA with missiles for months.
Elon Musk’s Twitter Saga
Musk is seeking to find a balance between the polar positions of his worldview. As a businessman, he’s trying to do so with profit and minimal cost.
Compensation
EU is discussing the legal transfer of frozen RU assets to UA. The western model of UA victory has 4 points:
– Complete withdrawal or destruction of RU troops
– Reparations
– Prosecution of war criminals
– Removal of Putin from power
Compensation for the damage caused to UA is part of this model and must be done by court decision.
Oil Prices
The USA intends to achieve a price ceiling for Russian oil at $60 per barrel. This exceeds the cost by 2 times and replenishes the RU budget. But this will help avoid market volatility which could be created by RU unilaterally or in coalition with its allies, like Iran.
Sanctions
The UA government expanded anti-Russian personal sanctions to 3,600 people, which cause more and more discontent among Russian oligarchs. This list becomes a foundation for Western sanctions.
Bayraktar
Turkish bayraktars successfully work for Ukraine’s victory despite rumors of being destroyed. Yermak, Head of President’s Office, visited the Bayraktar plant last month. UA avoids giving too much attention to Bayraktar.
International Legion
American establishment fighting in the Armed Forces of Ukraine: 28-year-old John Kennedy, the great-nephew of US President John F. Kennedy, secretly fought in the UA International Legion. Other iconic representatives of Latin American and SE Asian countries have fought for UA. International Legion has 1000s of troops that regularly rotate.
Video fragment with the future of propagandists and the military-political leadership of the RF. They fear being put against the wall and executed.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 22/10/2022 15:04

The Kyiv Independent:

⚡️ Ukraine's General Staff: Conflicts reported between Russian, Belarusian soldiers in Belarus.

The General Staff hasn't provided details or evidence to support the claim, adding that the clashes have reportedly had to do with “Russians’ insolent attitude toward Belarusians.”

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 22/10/2022 16:31

Kadyrov's teenage sons, having supposedly been to and from the frontlines and had time to single handedly capture 3 POW's, gift their father the three Ukrainians.
Whilst it's an obvious propaganda stunt the three men have been confirmed as actual Ukrainian Prisoners of War breaking The Geneva Convention and another war crime.

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1583830172209680385?s=61&t=LCxK74ZOqgKKJY3NzmrT5A

Kyiv Independent reporting on todays barrage of Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure:

Russian attacks on Oct. 22 cut off power supplies to 672,000 households in Khmelnytskyi Oblast, 188,400 in Mykolaiv Oblast, 102,000 in Volyn Oblast, 242,000 in Cherkasy Oblast, 174,790 in Rivne Oblast, 61,913 in Kirovohrad Oblast, and 10,500 in Odesa Oblast

⚡️Official: Russian attacks cut electricity to over 1.4 million Ukrainian households.

The information was provided by Kyrylo Tymoshenko, a deputy chief of staff for President Volodymyr Zelensky.

⚡️Mayor: Russian missile strike completely destroys energy facility in Lutsk, Volyn Oblast.

Lutsk Mayor Ihor Polishchuk said on Oct. 22 that it's currently impossible to restore the facility. He did not specify what facility he was referring to.

blueshoes · 22/10/2022 17:26

@DesdamonasHandkerchief the parading of the 3 Ukrainian POWs is despicable.Of course his sons captured them Halloween Hmm I fear what will happen to them.

Greenshake · 22/10/2022 18:13

That made me shiver. Kadyrov is an absolute piece of shit and his sons are going the same way. Those poor POW’s, it doesn’t even bear thinking about. I really wish I hadn’t clicked on that Twitter link.

RedToothBrush · 22/10/2022 18:46

Twitter saying that Russia sources are saying the internet has gone down in Kherson.

NetBlocks AT netblocks
Confirmed: Live metrics show that networks in #Kherson, Ukraine, which had been rerouted to Russia via Russian-Crimean internet provider Miranda, have fallen offline; the incident comes as occupying authorities order residents to evacuate

MissConductUS · 22/10/2022 18:51

RedToothBrush · 22/10/2022 18:46

Twitter saying that Russia sources are saying the internet has gone down in Kherson.

NetBlocks AT netblocks
Confirmed: Live metrics show that networks in #Kherson, Ukraine, which had been rerouted to Russia via Russian-Crimean internet provider Miranda, have fallen offline; the incident comes as occupying authorities order residents to evacuate

This could be deliberate for operational security reasons on the part of the Russians if they are indeed planning to withdraw.

I've refrained from commenting on the Liz Truss/Boris business as it's not my place as an American, but I do confess to feeling a bit of schadenfreude at seeing that mine is not the only government subject to political chaos. 😁

MissConductUS · 22/10/2022 18:55

blueshoes · 22/10/2022 14:23

God, I hope UAF can get their air defence systems in place double-quick. Wonder if the NASAMs have arrived in Ukraine yet.

My understanding is that they are not there yet, but after the Russian missile attacks on civilian, the Pentagon has promised to expedite delivery. It is not a small task to ready them for transport, pack them up, and airlift them with spare parts, technicians to reassemble them, etc. I am certain it is being worked on 24x7 with a "drop everything" priority. The US Army is very good at logistics.

LoveLarry · 22/10/2022 19:08

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 22/10/2022 15:04

The Kyiv Independent:

⚡️ Ukraine's General Staff: Conflicts reported between Russian, Belarusian soldiers in Belarus.

The General Staff hasn't provided details or evidence to support the claim, adding that the clashes have reportedly had to do with “Russians’ insolent attitude toward Belarusians.”

A very stark and brutal message to Belarus military from a Ukrainian politician/soldier

twitter.com/y_gudymenko/status/1583778661131751425?s=46&t=Jwdyf0C9lRNQySA49l98fQ

blueshoes · 22/10/2022 19:28

MissConductUS · 22/10/2022 18:55

My understanding is that they are not there yet, but after the Russian missile attacks on civilian, the Pentagon has promised to expedite delivery. It is not a small task to ready them for transport, pack them up, and airlift them with spare parts, technicians to reassemble them, etc. I am certain it is being worked on 24x7 with a "drop everything" priority. The US Army is very good at logistics.

Godspeed 🇺🇸🇺🇦

RedToothBrush · 22/10/2022 20:35

Rumours growing that Mylove in Kherson has been liberated. Started a few hours ago but seems to be being taken more seriously now but stress it's unconfirmed at this point

Greenshake · 22/10/2022 20:59

What is going to happen if Putin successfully manages to take out the power, sanitation and general infrastructure on an even greater scale? This worries me a lot.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 22/10/2022 21:12

Greenshake · 22/10/2022 18:13

That made me shiver. Kadyrov is an absolute piece of shit and his sons are going the same way. Those poor POW’s, it doesn’t even bear thinking about. I really wish I hadn’t clicked on that Twitter link.

Sorry Greensnake, it is awful Blush

Greenshake · 22/10/2022 21:13

@DesdamonasHandkerchief please don’t apologise, it needs to seen 🌷

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 22/10/2022 21:16

Greenshake · 22/10/2022 20:59

What is going to happen if Putin successfully manages to take out the power, sanitation and general infrastructure on an even greater scale? This worries me a lot.

I hope that if Russia can be defeated on the battle field the West will swoop in and restore power and water. It's just f*ing difficult when any repairs made are being bombed the shit out of too.

Naem · 22/10/2022 21:36

Interesting comments from Netanyahu
www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-i-hope-putins-having-second-thoughts-about-vision-for-russian-empire/
Suggests he might be open to provide weaponary if he gets in. Also suggests that Russia pulling back in Syria because it needs the weapons/troops in Ukraine may make the Israelis plus harressment of Jews in Russia may make Israel feel more able to support Ukraine
See also - www.timesofisrael.com/report-ukraine-not-cooperating-with-israel-on-proposed-missile-alert-system/

And also www.timesofisrael.com/at-least-10-iranians-said-killed-by-ukraine-as-moscow-arms-ties-appear-to-mount/

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 22/10/2022 22:43

🤞

Wagner affiliated Telegram channel says Kherson is lost and that it will be worse than the retreat from Kharkiv as they Russians have no way to get out.

https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/1583915862624735232?s=61&t=MbY5m3IMzJgZJi6oTgUnaQ

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 22/10/2022 22:52

Can any of our weapons experts shed some light on this? It doesn't sound good.

https://twitter.com/flashnewss_ua/status/1583935620572798977?s=61&t=MbY5m3IMzJgZJi6oTgUnaQ

Russia launched two more military satellites into orbit. The Soyuz-2-1v rocket launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northwestern Russia, delivering two secret cargoes into orbit

Astrophysicist and satellite researcher Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics expressed his opinion on Twitter.

"Russia, as a rule, is planning something bad, but what exactly is not yet known. I believe this is an experimental pair of military satellites, possibly for testing satellite reconnaissance techniques.”

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 22/10/2022 23:05

@DesdamonasHandkerchief this might explain why the remaining russian soldiers in Kherson are allegedly dressed like citizens and now living in vacated homes. It could be a strategy to take Ukraine forces by surprise but surely it's more likely that they are shitting themselves and are hoping to escape at a later date.

Residents are being bombarded around the clock with instructions to evacuate immediately followed by warnings of dire consequences if they don't. The psychological pressure is high. I am hoping that this is Russia's last ditch attempt to take the people of Kherson as hostages as opposed to there being any real threat but it is possibly wishful thinking on my part. I hate the waiting. It must be dreadful for those living it personally.

notimagain · 22/10/2022 23:18

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 22/10/2022 22:52

Can any of our weapons experts shed some light on this? It doesn't sound good.

https://twitter.com/flashnewss_ua/status/1583935620572798977?s=61&t=MbY5m3IMzJgZJi6oTgUnaQ

Russia launched two more military satellites into orbit. The Soyuz-2-1v rocket launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northwestern Russia, delivering two secret cargoes into orbit

Astrophysicist and satellite researcher Jonathan McDowell of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics expressed his opinion on Twitter.

"Russia, as a rule, is planning something bad, but what exactly is not yet known. I believe this is an experimental pair of military satellites, possibly for testing satellite reconnaissance techniques.”

TBH in the grand scheme of things I wouldn't be worrying about it, worse case are worries it's Russia practising it's techniques for investigating other nations satellites....if they actually interfere with a US satellite it gets more serious but I can see evidence that that is what is intended here..

For overall context it's worth being aware both the Russians and the US launch military payloads on a frequent basis, on a few occasions even the Space Shuttle flew on military missions with a military crew with, even to this day, details being kept under wraps..

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS-51-C

And as for what this does:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_X-37

So no, in conclusion lot of this sort of thing goes on and I wouldn't be too concerned about the recent Russian launch.

blueshoes · 22/10/2022 23:44

Naem · 22/10/2022 21:36

Interesting comments from Netanyahu
www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-i-hope-putins-having-second-thoughts-about-vision-for-russian-empire/
Suggests he might be open to provide weaponary if he gets in. Also suggests that Russia pulling back in Syria because it needs the weapons/troops in Ukraine may make the Israelis plus harressment of Jews in Russia may make Israel feel more able to support Ukraine
See also - www.timesofisrael.com/report-ukraine-not-cooperating-with-israel-on-proposed-missile-alert-system/

And also www.timesofisrael.com/at-least-10-iranians-said-killed-by-ukraine-as-moscow-arms-ties-appear-to-mount/

I don't profess to fully understand the politics behind Israel's decision to not be drawn into Ukraine's defence despite US's strong support or which party is likely to win the upcoming legislative election but I hope the splinters from sitting on the fence will start to seriously poke into Israel's bottom soon.

I think it is unconscionable that Israel is still trying to keep Russia onside and pretty shameful behaviour not to at least provide air defence systems. Those are not offensive weapons but will save more lives than a consolation prize alert system.

blueshoes · 22/10/2022 23:50

Adding to my bewilderment at Israel's stance is they understand genocide. The mass murders and atrocities being perpetrated against Ukraine civilians and mass graves being discovered are the stuff which the Nazis perpetrated against Jewish people in WW2.

Anyway I don't know what I am talking about so I will keep quiet now.

Naem · 23/10/2022 00:11

@blueshoes
The Times of Israel provided various reasons in the articles:
The one given by Netanyahu was:

“time and again…weapons that we supplied in one battlefield end up in Iranian hands used against us.”

However the Times of Israel also said:

"Earlier that day, The New York Times reported that Russia has drawn down forces in Syria and removed the sophisticated S-300 anti-aircraft system that has been a major threat to Israeli Air Force operations in the country.
The development could open the door for Jerusalem to upgrade its level of support for Kyiv, as Russia’s presence in Syria has been a major consideration for Israel’s position on the matter.

A senior Israeli defense official and two senior Western diplomats told The Times that the redeployment would decrease Russian leverage on Israel and that this may lead Jerusalem to reconsider its support for Ukraine.

The Israeli position is believed to be based on its desire to maintain freedom of operations in Syria as well as to avoid causing problems for Russia’s large Jewish community. Israel is also concerned that as Russia pulls out its military presence in Syria, Iran will be able to increase its influence.

Moscow has already moved to curb Jewish institutions in the country: Over the summer, Russia’s Justice Ministry filed a petition to liquidate the Russian offices of the Jewish Agency for Israel — a semi-governmental organization that encourages and facilitates Jewish immigration — in what analysts view as a reaction to Israel’s criticism of the invasion.

...

On Monday, Dmitri Medvedev, the deputy head of the Russian Security Council, warned Israel in a social media post that any “reckless” supply of military equipment to Ukraine “will destroy all interstate relations between our countries.”

Israel has in the past provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine, including operating a field hospital for several weeks in the early days of the conflict, and also protective military equipment such as helmets and flak jackets. More recently, however, it has also provided the Ukrainians with intelligence about Iranian drones, according to Ukrainian and Israeli officials, who say that Israel has also offered to examine the remains of drones that crashed."

Suggesting that the real reasons are: a) to protect their forces from Russian and Iranian attack on their border, but, perhaps more fundamentally that b) that the Jews in Russia are effectively being used as hostages. While the US may have the odd person (eg basketballer) in Russia being held hostage, there aren't that many. Estimates are that there are at least 150,000 Jews in Russia. In Russia, Jews tend to be the classic scapegoats when things aren't going well - and certain members of the current Russian authority have made it very clear that they are linking the treatment of Jews in Russia to Israeli behaviour. Neither the US nor Ukraine are in any position to help if the Russian authorities turn on the Jews.

MissConductUS · 23/10/2022 00:19

@blueshoes , this may also help explain it.

www.cfr.org/article/why-israel-has-been-slow-support-ukraine

Not only are there Jews in Russia who would be vulnerable, but there are also 1.2 million Russian-speaking Jewish immigrants in Isreal, and the Israelis have an agreement with the Russians that they can strike at Iranian units in Syria that threaten Israel. I do think that they are starting to feel the pressure to do more, and Russia is withdrawing forces from Syria, making the deconfliction agreement less necessary.

Naem · 23/10/2022 00:53

MissConductUS · 23/10/2022 00:19

@blueshoes , this may also help explain it.

www.cfr.org/article/why-israel-has-been-slow-support-ukraine

Not only are there Jews in Russia who would be vulnerable, but there are also 1.2 million Russian-speaking Jewish immigrants in Isreal, and the Israelis have an agreement with the Russians that they can strike at Iranian units in Syria that threaten Israel. I do think that they are starting to feel the pressure to do more, and Russia is withdrawing forces from Syria, making the deconfliction agreement less necessary.

I think the point though, regarding the 1.2 million Russian speaking immigrants in Israel, is not so much that most of them are pro Russian (most of them came to Israel precisely because they were not happy with the Soviet/Russian authorities), but that most of them still have immediate relatives back in Russia. And while I think the demographic still is that the majority of Jews in Israel are of Middle Eastern extraction, the immigration of over a million Soviet Jews to Israel in the 1970s-1980s evened that up significantly, and the increasing intermarriage between those of European Jewish descent and those of Middle Eastern Jewish descent means that most young Israelis will have a close relative who has a relative back in Russia.

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