Ukraine Invasion: Part 33

[MagicFox]

Starting this at 980 on the other thread because it's late and I might miss the tipping point. We're moving fast at the moment, thanks all for the analysis, insight and company

mm. I'm reacting emotionally rather than with thought this morning but I am really really worried about Surovikin. he -won- in Syria and the people are ruined.

Your ducklings are adorable, I wonder what colour their grown up feathers will be?
enjoy your time away

I am worried as well but I have to hope that Ukraine has more resolve and western support that Syria ever had (sadly for them)

Not sure if anybody has posted - really interesting analysis of the effects of a flood based on 3D maps - www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/10/20/2130299/-A-3D-Look-at-Nova-Kakhovka-Flood-Effect

Very reassuring.

it is reassuring. Thanks @Wannago

I am very grateful indeed for your cogent explanation of the water situation in Crimea and how their canal system depends on the dam at Kherson not being destroyed. It puts such a different complexion on the strategy in that area of both sides in this war.

@Wannago thank you for posting that. I have been wondering what would happen if the Nova Kakhova dam were bombed. You cannot put anything past the Russians as they have form for being stupid and spiteful (as well as being war criminals through and through).

That simulation is indeed reassuring. But still a blow for Ukraine.

And to Wannago for the maps of probable resullts round Kherson, too!

⚡️ Ukrainian military confirms it hit Antonivskyi Bridge near Kherson.

Ukraine's Armed Forces, however, deny Russian media reports that three civilians were killed and nine injured as a result of the attack, Hromadske reports.

(It seems that the civilians were from a Russian propaganda unit)

It certainly makes you wonder about the extent of corruption and at what point the nuclear programme is at, whether its operational and the level of support Putin has for nukes doesn't it?

I notice they can't help themselves from emphasising the nuclear threat though towards the end.

Mildly amused to hear the official Ukraine Twitter account tweeted about having Boris back and then thought better of it and deleted the tweet. Understandable but inappropriate imo.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-19/-star-wars-actor-mark-hamill-s-campaign-sends-500-drones-to-ukraine
Luke Skywalker is sending drones! :)

For anyone else whose ad blocker won't let them see the image, here you go :-)

We're probably back to the same old same old - I say that because as I recall it these these danger/restricted areas around Novaya Zemlya got a mention a few months back because some Norwegian academic started speculating about "the big one" on Twitter the basis of a navigation warning...

So...yet again the Russian's notify the world (via a long standing world wide system) that these restricted areas are being activated for possible use.

Various pundits and supposed experts rush to claim "something is up".

For reasons we can only guess at, for example continuing bad weather, lack of funds, kit not ready, chief scientist falls ill, you name it, whatever the reason whatever was planned, which might actually have been quite small scale, doesn't.

Pundits and experts rush back in to the information void to speculate/catastrophise what's gone on.

One day something will happen and it'll be "told you so".

Good work if you can get it but not exactly helpful, or useful.

Thanks @notimagain and @RedToothBrush

Telegraph reporting that China could invade Taiwan by the end of this year. Yay. 😫 Just what the World needs.

Ijsbear · Today 10:05
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-19/-star-wars-actor-mark-hamill-s-campaign-sends-500-drones-to-ukraine

Luke Skywalker is sending drones! :)

What an inspired idea, no wonder it has had such success already.

How sweet your ducks are to come when you whistle, Ijsbear! Maybe you should let them hear you on the telephone while you are away.

In slightly more positive news:

US and Russian defence ministers speak by phone about security issues
The defence ministers of Russia and the US have spoken by phone today, according to a report. Russian state-owned news agency RIA said Russia's Sergei Shoigu spoke with US equivalent Lloyd Austin. The report said they "discussed topical issues of international security, including the situation in Ukraine".

"Today's talks between Shoigu and the head of the Pentagon are the second since the start of the special operation in Ukraine," the report said.

"The last ones were in May, the topic of discussion then was the same - topical issues of international security, including the situation in Ukraine."

The call was confirmed by Russia's defence ministry on Telegram.

Lara Seligman at laraseligman
BREAKING: DOD spox confirms at SecDef spoke with Russian Defence Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu by telephone for the first time since Ma

Interesting timing given the announcement of the near incident yesterday and the expiration of the absent nuclear testing tomorrow. And of course events on the ground itself.

My personal view is that we should stay well out of this.

Would love to be a fly on. The wall during this conversation.

Saw this but an invasion would take a lot of prep and that would be seen. If there's no info about actual movement towards this and it's just based on rhetoric etc I don't know how much to take this at face value.

Yes agree @MagicFox

I do wonder what the benefit of speaking with Shoigu are, hasn't he been all but sidelined?

Agreed, this is just the opinion of a navy commander not the whole country. Also he basically says they could invade at any time over the next 5 years. Given that time frame he can't rule out this year or next year.

olexander scherba AT olex_scherba
Last night withdrawing Russia was trying to steal equipment of Ukrainian TV company in Kherson. The equipment had GPS on. So, the HIMARS strike by Ukraine was especially effective.