Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

[MagicFox]

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

There are claims the battle for Kherson has begun. (Unconfirmed yet)

www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html?m=1

All claims are based on visual photos / videos.

grr

Ukraine - 1520, of which: destroyed: 846, damaged: 36, abandoned: 36, captured: 602

Russia - 5362, of which: destroyed: 3482, damaged: 129, abandoned: 301, captured: 1450

If you click on the actual links a post above, you can see visual evidence of every destroyed vehicle.

mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1564205767955304448 they are saying that the counter offensive has started in Kherson, don't get too excited.

The Ukrainians have confirmed it.

Ukraine’s Armed Forces Launched a Long-Awaited Counteroffensive in the South: the Fighting is Going On in Many Directions

Victory for Ukraine in Kherson. Willing strength, bravery and courage to Ukraine's forces.

this Twitter person is well worth a look, I think twitter.com/margot42157869/status/1564213787087060994

Russia is saying the Ukraine counteroffensive is fake news.

www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-says-it-has-launched-counteroffensive-in-south-11661781304

Ukraine Says It Has Launched Counteroffensive in South
Russian-appointed officials say reports of a counteroffensive are untrue
..
It couldn’t immediately be established where the offensive was taking place or what its effects were. Ukrainian officials declined to provide details, citing the secrecy required in military operations.

There is news. It has inspired everyone. We need to be patient,” said Nataliya Humeniuk, a spokeswoman for Ukraine’s southern military command.
...
“The latest fake of Ukrainian propaganda,” Sergei Aksyonov, who was appointed by Russia to lead Crimea when it seized the southern peninsula in 2014, wrote on Telegram. Russian military bloggers in the region also said there was no sign of a major offensive.
...
Some Ukrainian officials posted messages on social media mocking the Russians.

“I am informed that demand for inflatable boats and mattresses has risen sharply on the right bank of the Dnipro,” Vitaliy Kim, governor of the neighboring region of Mykolaiv, wrote on Telegram.

Interesting analysis, speculative as it is. Thanks for linking.

I wonder whether the recent reports of re-supply of military hardware along the Kerch Bridge connecting Russia to Crimea has made Ukraine decide to push forward. It indicates Russia is not folding but digging in to defend.

mobile.twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1564262813970857985 advisor to President Zelensky

The Wagner Group has now confirmed the offensive as well.

twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1564258204439175170

Vitaly Kim is another badass. Love him and his cool demeanour

The Ukrainian officials are masters at throwing shade

Woooooo! Liberation time.

mobile.twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1564261285243432960 deputy head of the Kherson administration, a collaborator, has been gunned down in his home

Looks like utter codswallop.

mobile.twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1564185001666789377 a bit of light relief, puppies discovered under the rubble of a building, when they were moved it was found that they were protecting a litter of kittens. Aww

Thank you for the new thread MagicFox, and to everyone else for your contributions.

Better the enemy you know.

So what's happening today? There is certainly a Ukrainian offensive. I'm not sure about the scale. Or the success. Or which parts are just distracting or probing.

So who might know something provisional? Strelkov of course. Vile though he is, he generally seems to be well informed and fairly 'honest' within his mindset. The following from here (lightly edited), which is currently unbanned, but was blocked by Russian authorities recently, and you can run it through translate.

vk.com/igoristrelkov

07:56 On the Kherson front, the enemy again shelled the dam of the Novokakhovskaya hydroelectric power station and facilities in Kherson with "HIMARS" overnight. There have been repeated "packets" of these missiles fired at our forward line units. As correspondents note - "apparently, there are a lot of missiles - they do not hold back, they are already hitting the infantry."

15:18 On the Kherson front this afternoon, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have launched a large-scale attack from the bridgehead on the Ingulets River, from the area of the village of Andreevka and have reached some progress. All fixed bridges across the Dnieper (two road and two railway) are out of order. It is now possible to cross the Dnieper by vehicles only by ferry and pontoon crossings.

3 hrs ago: It is reported about the repulse of the first attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the village of Blagodatovka. The enemy has not yet managed to encircle the units of the Russian Armed Forces defending there, although the road, according to some reports, was cut by the Ukies.

Another 3 or so hrs ago: There are sketchy reports that from dawn until 2 p.m. there was fierce fighting in the area of the large village of Malaya Alexandrovka (north-east of Davydov Brod). Our troops [i.e. Russian side - MMB] repelled the enemy's attacks and basically held their positions, the village remained in our hands. The enemy in the Berislav direction managed to capture the village of Sukhoi Stavka in the depth of our defence.

The enemy is trying to break through to the village of Bruskinskoye - on the Berislav-Davydov Brod highway in the depths of our defense. On the face - the breakthrough of the front in this area. Our artillery and aviation are actively working on the enemy forces that have broken through. So far, the enemy has not managed to significantly expand the "neck" of its breakthrough.

Continued: 3 hrs or so ago.

The picture of the enemy's offensive is roughly clear. - Coverage and defeat of our group east of Kherson between the Dnieper and Ingulets rivers.

2 hrs ago summary: The offensive in the sector along the Ochakovsky Liman line - to Snigirivka - is of the nature of a demonstration, carried out by insignificant forces in order to divert attention from the main blow inflicted in the area of the previously captured bridgehead in the area of the village of Andreevka-Lozova and to the east.

54 mins ago: Today the enemy on a wide front (in three directions:1. Kirovo-Alexandrovka, 2. Stepovaya Dolina-Pravdino, 3.Red Banner - Ternovaya Pody) went on the offensive. In each direction they arrayed according to the classic approach: tanks in the battle line ahead, behind them IFVs and infantry on foot.

A massive fire defeat was inflicted on the attacking enemy by our artillery. As a result, in the first direction, the enemy did not have success - lost 4 units of equipment, the infantry, which during the retreat did not have time to jump on the tanks, was ground during the withdrawal. In the second direction, the enemy seized the stronghold and entered Pravdino (on a farm, on the eastern outskirts), but after a fire defeat, he pulled back to his original positions. He lost three tanks and a BMP. In the third direction, where there was less artillery captured thorn Pods, at the moment ours are trying to dislodge him from there. There's a fight going on.

P.S. My opinion that the offensive in THIS area was of a demonstrative nature remained unchanged.

...

Make of it what you will. Fingers crossed.

@MMBaranova thanks for the updates on the Ukraine offensive in the South.

Godspeed to the Ukraine forces. My hopes and prayers are with them.

Euromaidan Press an hour ago: Ukrainian troops took back 4 villages in the south from Russian occupation, military source tells CNN.

The villages are Nova Dmytrivka, Arkhanhel's'ke, Tomyna Balka, and Pravdyne. Russian "first line of defence has been broken through in three places".

.....

Without knowing what is truly going on along the Kherson front my assessment is that Ukrainian gains have been made at different locations. In other places along the front the advance has either been turned back or was a feint. Take your pick.

From the Gerkin translations by Dimitri, the offensive has indeed been defeated in a couple of places but successful in one.

Ukraine have asked for social media not to post anything as it might aid the enemy. I don't mean on here but we may not know much for a while. Slava Ukraini praying for their forces

I don't pray so I can only wish for good news

>Ukraine have asked for social media not to post anything as it might aid the enemy.

Yes, noted. The information posted from enemy sources are already known to the enemy (as they are posting it) and Ukrainians who monitor them.

Similarly Ukrainian official sources are passing on information after a delay.