Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

[MagicFox]

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

<Snigger>

Isn't that why "traditionally" it has been the mothers out protesting?

Yeah . Mother bears! I hope they do their own mobilization, this one against Putin.

It seems that some of the exchangees (in Turkey) have to stay there until the war has ended under the terms of their release. That's an interesting one.

Source Anton Gerashchenko

@MagicFox time soon for another thread?

Thank you for these threads, I have been following them all from the start.

My question is, what happens when Putin is no longer leader, however this may come about. Who is/are his likely replacement(s) and will it be just more of the same; or worse? Strangely, I’m finding that idea maybe even more frightening than Putin remaining in power because I think we have, to some extent, got the measure of him in that we better understand what we’re dealing with. But what about who comes next? Is it a case of better the devil (quite literally) you know?

@Theskyisfullofbirds good question. One would have thought this would have been analysed to death. Chances are it is going to be an even bigger hawk not a dove. He (it will be a he) will probably push for full mobilisation. At some point, people were speculating Nikolai Patrushev, Secretary of Security Council.

Hopefully some more informed posters can provide insight.

Just told Dh about the prisoner exchange. His response - they are at the negotiation stage. The Russians have said this, and Ukraine has said 'fuck off'.

The Russians clearly want to negotiate now, before they lose more ground so they have a clear net gain. They also want to be appearing reasonable to certain sections: their own audience, the 3rd party non-natos and the appeasers in the west.

Interesting to see. But yes, again shows that Putin's hand isn't as strong as the image he is trying to project.

One that turns its weapons on its own leaders I hope

Link to new thread as requested, will post again in the 90s : Ukraine Invasion: Part 31 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4639048-ukraine-invasion-part-31

Link haul this morning:

1. Bit of hope growing in US talks with India about changing their reliance on Russian energy and weapons. Would be amazing to shift India away from Russia in this way: https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/21/india/india-us-talks-shifting-russia-reliance-intl-hnk/index.html

1. Great analysis of Truss's speech at the UN, outlines position re autocracies (emph on China): https://beijingtobritain.substack.com/p/new-prime-minister-liz-tuss-speech?utmcampaign=autoo_share

1. Igor Sushko reports that in addition to protestors being immediately conscripted, there are reports that a woman has died at the protest in Moscow after police hit her in the head and that Putin will likely freeze the bank accounts of men evading conscription.

1. @christogrozev: Russian nationalists livid about the POW exchange, cancels out their approval of mobilisation: twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1572714685874704384?s=46&t=HwgGVHpI-sxJXqYrvcSaNA

1. @christogrozev again: suggestion that Prigozhin is promoting himself as a successor to Putin - twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1572807394585083904?s=46&t=HwgGVHpI-sxJXqYrvcSaNA

Don't know much about Prigozhin (except he's bad news of course) and don't know how true these rumours are, but they're evidence of shaky ground for Putin whatever way. Maybe Prigozhin will fall out of a window this week

Prigozhin funds and runs Wagner, fyi

🧐 "#NorthKorea has released an official statement claiming that it has never supplied weapons to #Russia and has no such plans." twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1572825644551245825?s=46&t=HwgGVHpI-sxJXqYrvcSaNA

Full NK statement here

Interesting!

Link to new thread below

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announced “partial mobilization” will not materially affect the course of the war in the coming months.

Putin did not explicitly threaten to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine continues counter-offensive operations to liberate occupied areas after Russian annexation.

Ukrainian forces likely continued offensive operations around Lyman.

Ukrainian forces conducted strikes north and east of Kherson City as part of an operational-level interdiction campaign against Russian logistics, military, and transportation assets in Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian and Russian sources identified three areas of kinetic activity on September 21: northwest of Kherson City, near the Ukrainian bridgehead over the Inhulets River, and south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border around Vysokopillya.

Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing crypto-mobilization efforts regardless of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declaration of partial mobilization.

Russian-appointed occupation administrators are likely increasing law enforcement and filtration measures in occupied areas of Ukraine in preparation for Russia’s sham annexation referenda.

+++

⚡️ Russian media: Armenia, Vietnam and Kazakhstan suspend use of Russian Mir cards [but the Russian federation is thriving!]

⚡️ Ukrainian intelligence: Russia starts conscripting plant workers in occupied Donetsk Oblast.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the proxies have also set up a military training camp for prisoners brought from Russia to fight in Ukraine near occupied Torez.

⚡️Mayor of Russian-occupied Melitipol urges local men to evacuate amid mobilization in Russia.

⚡️ UK to give Ukraine $500 million to help it buy more natural gas.

⚡️General Staff: Ukrainian forces repel Russian attacks near 5 settlements.

⚡️North Korea denies selling weapons or ammunition to Russia.
U.S. officials earlier said Russia was in the process of purchasing millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea for its war in Ukraine.
[I don't think NK would deny selling arms if they thought Putin was winning]

⚡️Pro-Kremlin politician Viktor Medvedchuk handed over to Russia in exchange for 200 POWs.

⚡️AFP: Top EU diplomats hold emergency meeting to discuss new Russia sanctions.
⚡️Reuters: EU ministers agree on new Russia sanctions, more weapons to Ukraine.
The ministers also agreed to increase weapons supplies to Ukraine. The package could be formalized in October when the ministers meet next.

⚡️General Staff: Russia forcibly moves residents out of settlements in occupied Luhansk Oblast.

🛂 Russians are going to Finland en masse after the announcement of partial mobilization — the head of the Consular Department of the Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland for Helsingin Sanomat
"The number of visitors has increased significantly. There are applications indicating that there is a desire to leave Russia, but the conditions for return are not fulfilled. Then the decision to issue a visa is negative."

🛠 Rosmorport is forced to use part of the ships of the fleet as donors, said Vasily Strugov, Deputy General Director of the company. In particular, the Russians plan to dismantle the Ermak icebreaker in order to repair the Krasin icebreaker

🎫 The websites of Russian airlines have run out of tickets for the nearest flights to visa-free countries, including Türkiye, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan — Russian RBC

🇱🇹 The Lithuanian Defense Ministry puts its troops on high alert due to partial mobilization in the Russian Federation

⛔️ 1,026 people in 38 cities of the Russian Federation were arrested as a result of anti-war protests
— Russian human rights media project “OVD-Info”
(so that's a few hundred recruits already)

💪 Dmytro Kozatskyi, the author of the photo from the Azovstal plant, was also returned from captivity.

📍President Zelensky said that the five commanders-defenders of Mariupol would remain in Türkiye until the end of the war. These were the terms of the exchange.
In Türkiye, they will be under the personal protectorate of the Turkish President and in comfortable conditions. They will also have the opportunity to hold personal meetings.

🛒 Amazon canceled the commission for Ukrainian businessmen who sell goods to European countries and the UK for a year

🇺🇦 Ukrainian student of the Kyiv Polytechnic Institute Ihor Klymenko became the best student in the world according to the Global Student Prize. He received a golden statuette during UN week in New York. Together with it – 100 thousand dollars for the development of his invention – a mine-clearing robot Quadcopter Mines Detector

❗️ The so-called "court" in the occupied Crimea sentenced Nariman Dzhelyalov, deputy chairman of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people, to 17 years in prison, who was detained a year ago in a fabricated sabotage case.

🇨🇳 China calls on Ukraine and Russia to ceasefire and resolve the conflict through dialogue, the country's Foreign Ministry

👮‍♂️ In Germany, investigators from the Federal Department of the Federal Police conducted a search of the businessman and oligarch of Uzbek origin Alisher Usmanov, who is considered one of the pillars of the regime of Vladimir Putin, writes Spiegel

President Biden addressed the UN General Assembly. Main points:

▪️Russia has shamelessly violated the basic principles of the UN Charter;

▪️This war is about extinguishing Ukraine's right to exist as a state and the right of Ukrainians to exist as a people;

▪️ If nations can pursue their imperial ambitions without consequences, then we endanger everything this very institution stands for;

▪️No one has threatened the Russian Federation, and no one, but Russia, has sought conflict;

▪️Putin is making irresponsible nuclear threats;

▪️The decision to mobilize is a mistake. This is bad news for the Russian people;

▪️The United States is working closely with its allies to prevent a potential Russia’s attack on NATO territory;

▪️The U.S. wants the war to end on fair terms. We will stand in solidarity with Ukraine in the future.

+++

Losses not yet released

Troop losses up again with 28 APVs destroyed and 1 helicopter

Here's a great interview with the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs on The Late Show, a popular American news and talk show. He offers views on morale in Ukraine, the nuclear threats from Putin and what we've learned from the cold war. I assume he was in New York for the UN General Assembly when this was recorded. If you want a clue about how Americans feel about Ukraine, listen to the audience's reaction at the beginning and end of the interview.

I've heard similar before, but this goes into divisions in the Russian military and how Putin is trying to micromanage the war from the Kremlin. That's what President Johnson did during the Vietnam war, which did not end well. Neither Putin nor Shoigu have any military service or training. The Generals can't decide where to reinforce. This is good for Ukraine.

Russia’s military divided as Putin struggles to deal with Ukraine’s counteroffensive, US sources say

@MissConductUS we are in thread 31 now 👆

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4639048-ukraine-invasion-part-31

WALLS HAVE EARS … Loose Talk Costs Lives … except fast forward to 2022 … Russia has around ten percent (10%) of undetected spies living in western countries, they pass little snippets of information back to The Kremlin - public mood, public reaction to Putin, are they being successful with misinformation? This botched special military operation, like the Second World War, will end with a misguided dictator realising his bunker fantasies are about to catch up with him - those at the top know well that Putin is not invincible and Russian people will have to bear a lasting curse on their international position in the world - there’s only one outcome for Putin’s folly - the sooner the rotten inner core realise that they might take the fall for his lies - the sooner he will be buried in history - young Russians need to decide how they will reshape their future once the evil monster (Putin) has been slain! Continuing support for HEAVIER Weapons will speed up Putin’s demise and cut down the number of years that Putin and Lavrov (and the predominantly Dutch families killed when Russian forces shot down a civilian airline) will engineer before they are both handed over for trial at The Hague -

KEEP THIS KNOWLEDGE ALIVE and the slow ticking clock will eventually catch up with those who ignored the sovereignty of an independent state for land grabbing and wonton Murderous reasons, like killing Alexander Litvinenko in London and irresponsibly spreading biological chemicals that killed innocent bystander, Dawn Sturgess in Salisbury - Putin’s destiny is coming - let’s speed it up BUT be careful what you say - Walls have ears!

Ukraine cuts ties with Iran after discovery that the Iranians are supplying killer drones to Russia … Reuters reports: apple.news/AlpCThU19RKansZr73u1-2g