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Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

999 replies

MagicFox · 28/08/2022 09:05

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

OP posts:
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91
MissConductUS · 29/08/2022 23:08

Here's a good summary of what's known now about the offensive:

Ukraine Update: Ukraine launches major Kherson counteroffensive

So far, it's good news.

Natsku · 30/08/2022 07:37

That is promising stuff.

On an amusing note, the Russian tourists that come to Europe tend to come through Finland then fly from Helsinki, leaving their cars in the airport car park. Locals have been going round the car park sticking pro-Ukraine stickers on all the cars with Russian numberplates Grin

Ijsbear · 30/08/2022 08:35

Key Takeaways

Ukrainian military officials announced that Ukrainian forces began a counteroffensive operation in Kherson Oblast on August 29.

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi announced that the IAEA mission to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant left for the plant.

Russian forces conducted limited ground assaults north of Slovyansk, southeast of Siversk, south of Bakhmut, and in western Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces continued efforts to advance around Donetsk City.

Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian forces conducted a limited ground assault in northwestern Kherson Oblast.

Russian federal subjects continued efforts to form new battalions, attract new recruits, and coerce conscripts into signing military contracts.

Ukrainian partisan activity continues to threaten Russian occupation authorities’ control in occupied territories.

+++

⚡️Reuters: Taliban close to finalizing contract to purchase Russian gasoline.

⚡️At least Ukrainian families flee occupied territories to avoid Russian-enforced education.

⚡️Reuters: US calls on Russia to create demilitarized zone around Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

⚡️ Russia launches missile strike on Zaporizhzhia.
According to Zaporizhzhia Oblast Governor Oleksandr Starukh, Russian forces launched a missile strike on Zaporizhzhia overnight on Aug. 30. There are currently no reported casualties or significant damages to infrastructure.

⚡️Logitech to leave Russian market.
Logitech International announced it will halt operations in Russia on Sept. 1, after suspending shipments in March. The company manufactures keyboards, mice, speakers, webcams, and other computer equipment

⚡️ NYT: Iran delivers first batch of military drones to Russia.
The delivery is the first of many intended to add hundreds of drones to Russia’s arsenal, the New York Times reported, citing two anonymous US officials.

🪖 EU proposes to train Ukrainian snipers, sappers, and officers – Bloomberg

❌ Ukraine, the United States, and eight other countries refute the Russian fake about the development of biological weapons in the laboratories of the US State Department

🖇 U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will personally host a meeting of the Ukrainian Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on September 8, 2022, the U.S. Air Force Europe and Africa Command announced

💥 In the past week, from August 22 to 28, the Ukrainian military demilitarized 27 ammunition depots and 22 enemy bases!

⚡️ The United States has assessed that Ukraine has a "good chance" of reclaiming territory captured by Russia during its initial invasion, U.S. Department of Defense officials said

⚡️The Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed a Russians crossing across the Dnipro River near the village of Lvove in the Beryslav district of the Kherson region — Operational Command “Pivden” (“South”)

📣 The U.S. National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications, John Kirby, called for a "controlled shutdown" of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. According to him, this could be a guarantee of its safety in the near future.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 30
Ukraine Invasion: Part 30
Ukraine Invasion: Part 30
TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 30/08/2022 08:52

⚡️‘At least Ukrainian families flee occupied territories to avoid Russian-enforced education.‘

It’s interesting that that might be the final straw that cements one’s decision to leave.

MMBaranova · 30/08/2022 09:47

It’s difficult when one side says ‘don’t talk about this thing we are doing’ as the other side probably will and all sorts of fantasists chip in together with those who don’t want to follow the rules. The Ukrainians are clearly hoping to control the narrative (they can’t in my opinion) and see how well their offensive goes. While I would like the offensive to cut through Russian forces like butter, I doubt that it will be easy. Making any progress in this war after the initial week of the surprise attack is going to be challenging. Some of the reports are encouraging.

I posted Strelkov because he seemed to have some information and was not being too partisan in his analysis. I could have posted a lot more Russian side information that ranged from the clearly government aligned to the even harder line than Putin crew. That’s something I am not keen on doing much as then the narrative has been ceded to the enemy. However, there is a lot of information, misinformation and disinformation out there in Russian language media.

MMBaranova · 30/08/2022 09:49

Taking some of the places Strelkov mentioned and searching on them in Cyrillic with Russian spellings I could find images and videos from most of them posted yesterday or very recently because there are reporters and fellow travellers out there on and behind Russian lines keeping their feeds going. It’s easier to get SOMETHING, however filtered and propagandised it is from the Russian side than the Ukrainian. The latter are more measured control freaks and the former… well I just don’t know sometimes. There are clearly state and friendly state actors, but also a range of encouraged / tolerated types who may well be in the pay of the state but put out a curious mix. What they say may often be dubious but I don’t think the cameras lie much, though of course the images are selective.

So that you can see a sample of what is out there, here’s ‘Yuri’ who sits with a wall behind him speaking as if he knows what is going on and making no secret of who he supports. It came out yesterday evening and covers the Ukrainian offensive and has English subtitles. I assume he is a Russian state agent of some sort. Needless to say, compared to the relative nuance of Strelkov, he is outlining what he reports as a debacle. I hope he is wrong in pretty much all he says.

blueshoes · 30/08/2022 10:28

Natsku · 30/08/2022 07:37

That is promising stuff.

On an amusing note, the Russian tourists that come to Europe tend to come through Finland then fly from Helsinki, leaving their cars in the airport car park. Locals have been going round the car park sticking pro-Ukraine stickers on all the cars with Russian numberplates Grin

Grin
blueshoes · 30/08/2022 10:41

@Ijsbear thanks for the key takeaways

⚡️ NYT: Iran delivers first batch of military drones to Russia.
The delivery is the first of many intended to add hundreds of drones to Russia’s arsenal, the New York Times reported, citing two anonymous US officials.

More on that here

^www.wsj.com/articles/iran-sends-first-shipment-of-combat-drones-to-russia-11661845931^

Iran Sends First Shipment of Combat Drones to Russia
Moscow is expected to use the weapons on the Ukrainian battlefield, U.S. officials say

The delivery underscores how Iran has emerged as one of the world’s most prolific purveyors of drone technology, which has helped its allies in Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, U.S. and Israeli officials have said.

It also highlights how unmanned weapons are partially driving the battlefield in Ukraine. Turkish-made drones have become the subject of folk songs in Ukraine after they demonstrated their importance in the defense of the country.

So far, however, U.S. officials said Moscow’s new military supplies from Tehran are proving to be unreliable. U.S. officials said that the drones have experienced numerous failures, but they declined to provide more details.
...
Iran shipped two kinds of drones to Russia, the U.S. said: the Mohajer-6, which can each carry four precision-guided missiles, and the Shahed series, which can also carry missiles and stay in the air for long periods.

The Biden administration first raised alarms about the Iran-Russia military partnership last month when the White House released surveillance photographs it said showed Russian officials visiting a drone base in Iran.

blueshoes · 30/08/2022 10:54

@MMBaranova appreciate your keeping an eye on Russian language media updates on the battlefield. YURI (the Russian in the video) seems so sure of Ukraine's poor performance. I suspect it is not as black and white, certainly not after only a few days.

Wishing Ukraine a huge dose of courage, skill and luck. I understand if they must go quiet for now.

Ijsbear · 30/08/2022 17:47

The single most extraordinary comment I've seen from a Russian govt body

Russia in RSA 🇷🇺
@EmbassyofRussia
·
1h
Russia government organization
US ex-Senator Richard H. Black: “US & NATO, we do not care how many Ukrainians die. Not civilians, not women, not children, not soldiers. We do not care” This is Washington and NATO's true attitude towards Ukrainians

OwlsDance · 30/08/2022 17:52

That guy has Ukrainian accent. So he's clearly Russia sympathiser. He's regurgitating what Russian propaganda is saying. I wouldn't believe much what he's saying, if anything. I think we just need to sit tight and wait for more information. More reliable information.

OwlsDance · 30/08/2022 18:02

Re Antonovsky Bridge - it got hit twice yesterday, one of the hits also got the makeshift "ferry" which was made out of several pontoons with barges attached to them. They've put the"ferry" right next to, almost under the bridge, so that ot was sort of sheltered. Allegedly Russian tanks/armoured vehicles were on it at the time.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 30/08/2022 18:11

I can't find the place I originally saw this, but RawStory will do; quite long, on the subject of recruitment to the Russian army.

www.rawstory.com/ghost-recruits-is-putin-raising-a-potemkin-army-to-boost-troop-numbers/

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 30/08/2022 18:13

(I seem to remember suggestions that the Russians' troubles started when they expected a lot of support in Ukraine from people they had been paying for some years, only for the support not to materialise because the payments had been pocketed by the paymasters rather than given to anyone further down the line.)

MissConductUS · 30/08/2022 18:26

Ijsbear · 30/08/2022 17:47

The single most extraordinary comment I've seen from a Russian govt body

Russia in RSA 🇷🇺
@EmbassyofRussia
·
1h
Russia government organization
US ex-Senator Richard H. Black: “US & NATO, we do not care how many Ukrainians die. Not civilians, not women, not children, not soldiers. We do not care” This is Washington and NATO's true attitude towards Ukrainians

Here's the statement, which was made in June, so nothing new.

I have never heard of him, and I follow American politics rather closely. He seems to be a big fan of Putin, which is undoubtedly why the Russians were tracking him.

Ijsbear · 30/08/2022 18:28

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 30/08/2022 18:13

(I seem to remember suggestions that the Russians' troubles started when they expected a lot of support in Ukraine from people they had been paying for some years, only for the support not to materialise because the payments had been pocketed by the paymasters rather than given to anyone further down the line.)

That's pretty funny actually.

MissConductUS · 30/08/2022 18:31

I've just listened to today's edition of the Telegraph's Ukraine: The Latest podcast and highly recommend it. It covers what is known and not known about the new offensive, its strategic significance, the fact that the Russians have attacked ten dummy wooden HIMARS with very expensive and scarce precision-guided missiles, and the recent defenestration of Sergei Shoigu. The risk with the last bit is that he might be replaced with someone remotely competent.

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ukraine-the-latest/id1612424182

OwlsDance · 30/08/2022 19:02

I loved to wooden dummy Himars story. Really funny.

ScrollingLeaves · 30/08/2022 19:40

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · Today 18:11
I can't find the place I originally saw this, but RawStory will do; quite long, on the subject of recruitment to the Russian army.

www.rawstory.com/ghost-recruits-is-putin-raising-a-potemkin-army-to-boost-troop-numbers/

Tjank you for that. It is read further by to know the Russian army is very unlikely to actually be increased by 137,000.

ScrollingLeaves · 30/08/2022 19:41

So sorry for the dreadful typos.
”It is reassuring to know….”

OwlsDance · 30/08/2022 19:51

ScrollingLeaves · 30/08/2022 19:40

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · Today 18:11
I can't find the place I originally saw this, but RawStory will do; quite long, on the subject of recruitment to the Russian army.

www.rawstory.com/ghost-recruits-is-putin-raising-a-potemkin-army-to-boost-troop-numbers/

Tjank you for that. It is read further by to know the Russian army is very unlikely to actually be increased by 137,000.

I didn't read the article, but CIT had a theory that some of these numbers will be made up by absorbing the LDPR army (whatever is left)

MissConductUS · 30/08/2022 20:49

OwlsDance · 30/08/2022 19:02

I loved to wooden dummy Himars story. Really funny.

Another benefit of the wooden HIMARS is that the Russians are terrified of them, so when one is spotted, they start moving any ammo dumps and command posts that are within 50 miles of the decoy. It causes more chaos and panic for them.

This also explains why they keep announcing that they've destroyed HIMARS. They really think that they have.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 30/08/2022 20:52

MissConductUS · 30/08/2022 20:49

Another benefit of the wooden HIMARS is that the Russians are terrified of them, so when one is spotted, they start moving any ammo dumps and command posts that are within 50 miles of the decoy. It causes more chaos and panic for them.

This also explains why they keep announcing that they've destroyed HIMARS. They really think that they have.

That is reassuringly brilliant. I am coming to expect this sort of sideways thinking from the Ukrainian command.

BoreOfWhabylon · 30/08/2022 21:23

Late to the new thread. Thank you all for the continued reports and analysis.

Sideorderofchips · 30/08/2022 21:42

Gorbachev has died

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