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Ukraine Invasion: Part 30

999 replies

MagicFox · 28/08/2022 09:05

We're now on our 30th thread, thanks as usual to all who contribute.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
91
Ijsbear · 31/08/2022 16:18

🔥 Oil depot in Krasnogvardeysk in the temporarily occupied Crimea is on fire

❗️ Invaders in Mariupol Drama Theater pour concrete over the bodies of the dead, and try to remove the cadaverous smell with bleach
Mariupol City Council

In one of the hospitals in temporarily occupied Kherson, patients have been suspended for several hours, as the medical facility is overflowing with wounded and killed Russian soldiers. Channel 24 writes about this, citing intelligence sources. The invaders who showed signs of life were sent to the emergency room, and the dead and those who were unconscious were sent to the morgue [dear god imagine waking up in the morgue. I guarentee Mariupolans won't be getting any medical treatment atm though :/ ]

🤝 Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and the German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, talked about the eighth package of sanctions against Russia and weapons supplies

☢️ The invaders are blocking the IAEA mission. The delegation will be forced to queue at the Russian checkpoint, as the invaders refused to issue special passes for IAEA representatives

Zaporizhzhia

[It seems the IAEA mission has arrived in Zaporizhzhia]

⚡️ EU has decided to terminate the agreement with Russia on the simplified issuance of visas to Russians, – Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó

⚡️ Ukrposhta sells $150,000 in stamps through eBay, Amazon.

⚡️ Ukraine's intelligence: Russia began covert mobilization in Moscow, St. Petersburg.

⚡️ Kuleba suggests launching program for surrendering Russian soldiers.
"This offer is worth making because even if one Russian soldier lays down arms and decides to leave, it means saved Ukrainian lives and closer peace," Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told Reuters.

⚡️Belgium against EU visa ban for Russian tourists.

⚡️Survey: Only 7% of Ukrainian refugees do not plan to come back from abroad.

⚡️German media: 2 employees of German ministry of economy suspected of working for Russia.
According to the German newspaper Die Zeit, two senior officials from the Ministry of Economy in charge of energy supply are being targeted by German investigators.

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 31/08/2022 16:48

‘Temporarily occupied’ Crimea!

Let’s hope so.

blueshoes · 31/08/2022 18:38

Invaders in Mariupol Drama Theater pour concrete over the bodies of the dead, and try to remove the cadaverous smell with bleach —
Mariupol City Council

In one of the hospitals in temporarily occupied Kherson, patients have been suspended for several hours, as the medical facility is overflowing with wounded and killed Russian soldiers. Channel 24 writes about this, citing intelligence sources. The invaders who showed signs of life were sent to the emergency room, and the dead and those who were unconscious were sent to the morgue [dear god imagine waking up in the morgue. I guarentee Mariupolans won't be getting any medical treatment atm though :/ ]

Both unspeakably horrific

MissConductUS · 31/08/2022 18:50

Russian morale in Kherson seems to be suffering. Troops are drinking on duty and shooting FSB agents when called out about it.

news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-live-news-putin-has-begun-covert-mobilisation-as-troops-push-back-thinly-held-russian-defences-in-south-12541713?postid=4383366#liveblog-body

OwlsDance · 31/08/2022 20:08

I wonder how much the soldiers in and around Kherson know. They must know about impacted bridges. They know that if they get into trouble, help is unlikely to come. The only thing that kept them relatively sane was that the promised Ukraine counteroffensive wasn't happening. So they might be OK after all. Until that changed.

All of the above must have a tremendous psychological impact. And all for what? To die defending the land that isn't even yours?

I don't think Ukraine even needs a major success. Even a tint one could be the last straw. They just need to keep the pressure up.

OwlsDance · 31/08/2022 20:09

Tiny*

OwlsDance · 31/08/2022 20:12

Lol did you see that Ukrainian video clip on Sky news, Run or Die? 😂

blueshoes · 31/08/2022 20:57

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

OwlsDance · 31/08/2022 21:08

Sure

Run or die

notimagain · 31/08/2022 21:21

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 31/08/2022 12:29

I suppose the Russians still have to react as if they were real HIMARS, just in case they were. A double-bluff. And never knowing whether the threat was real or not will probably make them even more paranoid and neurotic, if possible.

Evening all, found you again...

The wooden HIMARs story is an interesting one. (as some are aware wooden/inflatable decoys go back to WW2, if not before)

My take in it is either the Ukranians have come up with something really really clever or the Russians re so utterly twitched by anything HIMARs shaped that they are simply engaging without trying to verify by other means what they are actually seeing....or they don't have the capability to to verify.....

blueshoes · 31/08/2022 21:40

OwlsDance · 31/08/2022 21:08

Sure

Run or die

Thanks!

Good PsyOps.

Those soldiers scuttling in L-shaped trenches whilst being fired on by drones from above is quite iconic.

OwlsDance · 31/08/2022 21:51

Russia doesn't have good intelligence equipment. Their own drones (which weren't built for that to be fair) produce awful quality videos, you wouldn't be able to tell apart a green truck from Himars.

notimagain · 31/08/2022 21:57

OwlsDance · 31/08/2022 21:51

Russia doesn't have good intelligence equipment. Their own drones (which weren't built for that to be fair) produce awful quality videos, you wouldn't be able to tell apart a green truck from Himars.

I'm sure you are you are probably right

You can sometimes discriminate decoy vs. real whatever by imaging in other than the visual wavelengths but it looks like that's something well beyond Russian capabilities, or certainly not something they have a capability to do quickly at battlefield level.

blueshoes · 31/08/2022 22:03

Maybe that will change once the Russians get the Iranian drones.

ScrollingLeaves · 31/08/2022 23:14

@OwlsDance · Today 21:08
Sure

Re: Ukraine’s video to Russians “Run or die”

What is very apt with the sound track of the song, ‘Run Rabbit Run’, are the words - given Russians think of Ukrainians as being dim farmers - “Bang, bang, bang, goes the farmer’s gun….”

blueshoes · 31/08/2022 23:56

www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainian-soldiers-say-they-are-advancing-in-the-south-but-at-a-cost-11661983338

Ukrainian Soldiers Say They Are Advancing in the South, but at a Cost
Troops recuperating at a hospital in southern Ukraine say they face fierce fighting in a push toward Kherson

Russian soldiers seemed well equipped and were putting up stiff resistance, the Ukrainians said.

“They’re throwing everything against us,” said a 22-year-old Ukrainian soldier who said Russians were fighting with artillery, tanks, helicopters and mortars. “They have a lot of equipment but few men.”
...
“The guys are in a fighting mood,” said Ivan, a former construction worker from southwest Ukraine. “They’re moving forward.”

Some Russian troops are fleeing their positions, he said, abandoning equipment and booby-trapping the bodies of dead comrades they leave behind.
...
“We’re advancing in some areas and being battered in others,” said Pavlo, a 22-year-old soldier who was concussed in a battle on Tuesday and says he now hears a sound akin to a broken television in his head.
...
Ukrainian officials and military analysts have said that Ukrainian losses, even if the offensive is successful, could be high as they are assaulting an entrenched enemy with significant firepower that can quickly chew up troops.
...
But among the injured, the doctor said he was most struck by their desire to continue fighting as soon as they are physically able.

Ivan, the 32-year-old private, said his concussion on Monday was his third since he was mobilized at the start of Russia’s invasion, and it was only because his commander ordered him evacuated that he ended up at the hospital.

“I want to get back to our guys,” he said, playing down his injuries despite struggling to hear. “I wanted to return the moment I left.”

MissConductUS · 01/09/2022 00:25

notimagain · 31/08/2022 21:21

Evening all, found you again...

The wooden HIMARs story is an interesting one. (as some are aware wooden/inflatable decoys go back to WW2, if not before)

My take in it is either the Ukranians have come up with something really really clever or the Russians re so utterly twitched by anything HIMARs shaped that they are simply engaging without trying to verify by other means what they are actually seeing....or they don't have the capability to to verify.....

It's lovely to have you on the new thread, @notimagain.

I think that mid-level Russian commanders are under intense pressure to stop the HIMARS agony, and it's a shoot first and ask questions later situation.

If the Russians now try to become a bit more discerning, it's pretty easy to create a thermal signature in these decoys. A lawn mower engine and a few gallons of petrol will create a lot of heat.

In other news, the Pentagon signed the contract with Raytheon to supply three NASAMS medium-range air defense systems for Ukraine along with training and logistical support. They also confirmed today that their intel has verified UAF advances and Russian retreats in the Kherson region, so that's more good news from Fort Fumble.

MagicFox · 01/09/2022 07:05

They play so dirty, they are bad bad actors.

"Russian forces are shelling the pre-arranged route the IAEA mission to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant was supposed to take, according to a Ukrainian official. The mission cannot proceed as a result of the shelling."

twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1565217061785174016?s=21&t=QBiEplNvnhJVtXZQgoTh1Q

OP posts:
Natsku · 01/09/2022 07:34

“The guys are in a fighting mood,” said Ivan, a former construction worker from southwest Ukraine. “They’re moving forward.”

Sentences like this get to me, the mention of their normal job. These aren't career soldiers but normal people who a year ago were working normal jobs and not imagining holding guns and fighting for their lives. Every so often I start thinking about that and it just blows my mind how suddenly and dramatically life can change for anyone. Very brave people.

OwlsDance · 01/09/2022 08:00

MagicFox · 01/09/2022 07:05

They play so dirty, they are bad bad actors.

"Russian forces are shelling the pre-arranged route the IAEA mission to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant was supposed to take, according to a Ukrainian official. The mission cannot proceed as a result of the shelling."

twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1565217061785174016?s=21&t=QBiEplNvnhJVtXZQgoTh1Q

How predictable.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 01/09/2022 08:46

The Russians, having accused the Ukrainian troops of shelling the facility, first invited the IAEA into the Zaporizhzhya plant to see the damage for themslves, then gave them a limited time there, then reduced that time from four days to one day, then shelled the route in. As far as I can make out from the World Service, Grossi and his team have gone ahead anyway.

Natsku · 01/09/2022 09:16

Eek, I hope they get through safely

blackwingedstilt · 01/09/2022 09:47

De-lurking with thanks to all regular contributors to share a link about another prominent Russian dying in questionable circumstances - this time in a "fall from a hospital window":

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62750584

MissConductUS · 01/09/2022 10:19

blackwingedstilt · 01/09/2022 09:47

De-lurking with thanks to all regular contributors to share a link about another prominent Russian dying in questionable circumstances - this time in a "fall from a hospital window":

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62750584

Defenestration must be contagious for the Russian political elite and oligarchs. 😀

Ijsbear · 01/09/2022 11:00

They also confirmed today that their intel has verified UAF advances and Russian retreats in the Kherson region, so that's more good news from Fort Fumble.

Good!

If I were the Ukrainians I'd be offering goodies to the Russian Kherson soldiers to surrender. It leaves the question of justice unanswered but it would save a lot of lives now.

and Hi @blackwingedstilt :)

+++

The ISW spend some time and effort emphasising that the counteroffensive is ~not~ failing at this point, contrary to Russian claims. It's worth reading.

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-31

It is far too soon to assess the progress of the counteroffensive operation, which will likely be difficult to evaluate in the short term if it relies on feints and misdirection.

^ISW and other analysts studying this war have been appropriately cautious and circumspect in announcing the culmination or defeat of major Russian offensive operations.
ISW will apply the same caution and circumspection to assessing the progress of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and exhorts others to do the same.^

Key Takeaways

The Russian Ministry of Defense and Russian milbloggers began an information operation declaring the Ukrainian counteroffensive a failure almost as soon as it was launched.
It is far too soon to assess the progress of the counteroffensive operation, however, which will likely be difficult to evaluate in the short term if it relies on feints and misdirection.

Russian occupation authorities are imposing a curriculum on Ukrainian students aimed at eliminating the notion of Ukrainian national identity, explicitly in line with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s speeches and writings falsely claiming that Ukraine is part of Russia, and that the Ukrainian identity was an invention of the Soviet period.

The G7 Non-Proliferation Directors Group condemned Russian attempts to disconnect the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant from the Ukrainian power grid as “unacceptable” ahead of the arrival of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) delegation to the plant.

Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack north of Kharkiv City.

Russian forces conducted ground attacks south of Bakhmut and along the western outskirts of Donetsk City.

Russian-appointed officials in Crimea began “reconstructing” air defense systems to counter smaller targets in response to recurring drone attacks on the peninsula. Russian officials are likely strengthening Crimean air defenses at the expense of other theaters.

Zabaykalsky Krai announced the formation of the “Daursky” volunteer engineer-sapper battalion.

Ukrainian partisans conducted an improvised explosive device (IED) attack against the headquarters of the “Together with Russia” political organization in Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast, where occupation authorities were reportedly preparing for sham referenda.

+++

from Zelenskyy's Telegram channel:

"I will not reveal the details now. I will say only one thing: on behalf of our intelligence, I want to thank all our people who support us very strongly in the south of our country, and especially in Crimea. The intelligence officers are grateful for the information provided and will use it to the maximum.

Let the enemies not forget whose peninsula they are staying on. Temporarily staying."

+++

⚡️At the Council of the EU Ministers of Foreign Affairs, it was agreed that the countries bordering with the Russian Federation could establish a ban on Russians entering with Schengen visas — the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Latvia

❕We will not lift sanctions against Russia, even if there are protests — the head of the German Federal Foreign Office

🔗 The EU will not recognize passports issued by Russian authorities in the occupied territories of Ukraine

⚡️Poland supports Ukraine's accession to the EU "in a few years” — the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland Zbigniew Rau

💪 The Pentagon announced that Raytheon Missiles & Defense would supply Ukraine with two NASAMS surface-to-air missile systems, training and logistical support for the Ukrainian military and security forces [as@MissConductUS said]

❌ The staff of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, temporarily seized by the Russians, are experiencing brutal repression, and those whom the occupation authorities considered "not trustworthy enough" disappeared before the visit of the IAEA mission to the plant.
The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine reported this.

⚠️ The IAEA mission cannot get to the ZNPP. The Russians fire on the mission's prearranged route from Zaporizhzhia. The UN advanced group cannot continue to move, – says the head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration Oleksandr Starukh. [as of 08:23 this morning EU time]

Update:

☢️ IAEA mission left Zaporizhzhia to Enerhodar, despite the shelling of the city — Reuters
“There is increased military activity in the area. Having come this far, we are not stopping,” said Grossi, head of the IAEA.

📌On the eve of the visit of the IAEA mission, the Russians resorted to new provocations at the ZNPP

Today, September 1, 2022, at 4:57 a.m., as a result of another mortar attack by the Russian occupying forces on the site of the Zaporizhzhyia NPP, emergency protection went off and the operating 5th power unit was shut down.
In addition, the ZNPP-330 kV 330 kV backup power supply line for own needs was damaged. In the transition mode, the non-operating power unit No. 2 was de-energized with the start-up of diesel generators.
This is the second time in the last 10 days that the criminal actions of the invaders led to the shutdown of the power unit and the de-energization of the station.
Power unit No. 6 continues to operate in the energy system of Ukraine and at the same time feeds its own needs at ZNPP.
Ukrainian employees of the station are doing everything possible to repair the damage to its infrastructure.

⚡️Custom brand Stillalive released sneakers inspired by the Ghost of Kyiv and the military theme
All net profit from sales is promised to be donated to volunteer needs.

💡Tomorrow at the meeting, the finance ministers of the G7 countries will approve a plan to limit prices for Russian oil. It is reported by The Wall Street Journal

🪫Washington believes that the Russian army in Ukraine is experiencing an acute shortage of personnel and is looking for ways to increase the number of its troops, CNN reports
We believe that the Russian Defense Ministry is trying to fill this gap by recruiting military personnel under contract – in particular, encouraging wounded soldiers to return to the battlefield, hiring employees of private security companies, and paying bonuses to conscripts,” an unnamed US official said to the CNN.
There are credible reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense is likely to begin massive recruitment of convicted criminals in exchange for pardons and monetary compensation after Vladimir Putin signed a decree last week to increase the number of troops by 137,000.

⛰In the temporarily occupied Mariupol, the occupying authorities plan to destroy the unique archaeological monument Mound Did – it will be transferred for development to a Rostov entrepreneur, – said Petro Andriushchenko, adviser to the mayor of Mariupol.

⚡️On the last day of summer, the Armed Forces of Ukraine gathered a very good "harvest" in the south of Ukraine
In particular, 201 enemies, 6 enemy ammunition depots, command posts, 12 tanks, and a lot of heavy weapons were eliminated.

⚡️ Naftogaz succeeds in postponing most Eurobond payments until 2026.
According to the Ukrainian state energy company, 77% of investors agreed to delay €600 million of loans for two years after the original 2024 deadline, The remaining €90 million will be repaid by 2024.

⚡️Estonian FM: We will aim to stop most Russians from entering the country within weeks.

⚡️CNN: US conducted 'war games' with Kyiv before Kherson counteroffensive.
The U.S. suggested keeping the offensive limited in geography to avoid overextension along the extensive front line, CNN reported citing multiple U.S., Ukrainian, and Western officials. To achieve better results, Ukrainian forces engaged in analytical exercises that were intended to better understand what force levels Ukraine would need to muster to be successful in different scenarios.
Initially, Ukraine planned for a larger assault but decided to focus only on the southern front for the time being.

⚡️US obtains warrant to seize $45 million airplane belonging to Russian energy company.

⚡️AP: North Korea may send workers to Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine.
Russian and North Korean officials are indicating that there may be plans to send a labor force to the Russian-occupied east of Ukraine. However, it is unlikely they will be transferred amidst the ongoing hostilities. The employment of North Korean workers would mean Russia is breaking the UN Security Council sanctions over North Korea it backed in 2017. Sanctions were imposed over North Korea's nuclear and missile programs.

⚡️ General Staff: Russian forces attempt to restore supply lines in southern Ukraine.
Ukraine’s General Staff reported on Sept. 1 that Russian forces are concentrating efforts on establishing full control of Donetsk Oblast and maintaining temporarily occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Mykolaiv oblasts.

[Russian losses: 450 troops. One questions how many the Ukrainians are losing but the last week has been dreadful for Russia. Another helicopter down and lot of artillery units, APVs and tanks]

Ukraine Invasion: Part 30
Ukraine Invasion: Part 30