We need to talk about the Weather and the potential for extreme heat - PART 2

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Old thread: www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4583720-we-need-to-talk-about-the-weather-and-the-potential-for-extreme-heat

The old thread was started when models started to introduce model runs with temperatures of 40c several days in advance of when the record breaking heat wave arrived. We chatted about the idea that this has never been seen before in the UK and linked it back to climate change. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts were horrified when these models actually verified and across the UK record breaking temperatures were seen. We spoke about the risks to infrastructure and health.

Weve also talked about the near drought conditions in parts of southern
England and East Anglia.

We discussed comparisons to 1976 and showed that although 1976 was hot for a prolonged period of time and was extremely dry, reaching back into 1975, that the UK was anomalously warm compared to elsewhere. In contrast, the July 22 heat wave happened amongst a background of extreme heat across Europe and elsewhere. In 1976 the highest recorded temperature was 35.9c, this year it was 40.3c

This thread is a continuation of that discussion.

Disclaimer: I'm a weather enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist. As such, please refer to the Met Office for reliable forecasts.

Looking forward, GFS, supported by several members of the GEFS ensembles show the potential for another heatwave from around the 9th August in the south and Midlands. Nothing as extreme as the July heatwave, but instead introduces several days of above 30c heat with some showing temperatures into the mid or high 30s. At the moment, there isn't sufficient model consensus to say that this is a likely outcome. I'm flagging this as a potential scenario, but not yet an actual forecast.

Photos are a couple of stats from the met office with regards to the dry situation in July.

barely raining but very red sky,
dog refuses to go into the garden, perhaps i missed a storm that has scared her

I've just driven from Swindon to Oxford. It feels like November out there!

Raining lots in north London but very muggy and humid.

There’s a heatwave special on Countryfile tonight (7pm, BBC 1).
As the heat bakes the British countryside into crisis, Adam Henson and John Craven meet those on the front line: the farmer who is double sewing and trying a new crop; the wildlife champions battling to save chalk streams.

Thanks @Pricklesinperil Ill put that on.

Was it any good?

I only caught the second half. It was a very gentle look. Seemed quite keen on extolling the virtues of being able to grow grapes for wine in a changing climate. A bit about the wildfires. But all very mild.

Agree with it being a gentle look but I suppose that was because it was on at 7pm and therefore in ‘family viewing time’ hence not as hard hitting as it should have been?

Excited to report thunderstorms with some impressive sheet lighting here in Midlands Worcs!

Yes I was woken by this at 00:30! Very loud thunder rolling round and round, extremely bright lightning and some torrential rain! Fairy short lived though, I think I dropped off again after 45 min or so and it seemed to have dropped off by then.

borntobequiet.. Another night of thunder and lightning here with more torrential rain. There's a thread esp for the thunderstorms created by @OhYouBadBadKitten so will head there..