We need to talk about the Weather and the potential for extreme heat - PART 2

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Old thread: www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4583720-we-need-to-talk-about-the-weather-and-the-potential-for-extreme-heat

The old thread was started when models started to introduce model runs with temperatures of 40c several days in advance of when the record breaking heat wave arrived. We chatted about the idea that this has never been seen before in the UK and linked it back to climate change. Meteorologists and weather enthusiasts were horrified when these models actually verified and across the UK record breaking temperatures were seen. We spoke about the risks to infrastructure and health.

Weve also talked about the near drought conditions in parts of southern
England and East Anglia.

We discussed comparisons to 1976 and showed that although 1976 was hot for a prolonged period of time and was extremely dry, reaching back into 1975, that the UK was anomalously warm compared to elsewhere. In contrast, the July 22 heat wave happened amongst a background of extreme heat across Europe and elsewhere. In 1976 the highest recorded temperature was 35.9c, this year it was 40.3c

This thread is a continuation of that discussion.

Disclaimer: I'm a weather enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist. As such, please refer to the Met Office for reliable forecasts.

Looking forward, GFS, supported by several members of the GEFS ensembles show the potential for another heatwave from around the 9th August in the south and Midlands. Nothing as extreme as the July heatwave, but instead introduces several days of above 30c heat with some showing temperatures into the mid or high 30s. At the moment, there isn't sufficient model consensus to say that this is a likely outcome. I'm flagging this as a potential scenario, but not yet an actual forecast.

Photos are a couple of stats from the met office with regards to the dry situation in July.

Hi, was wondering if you'd post, my local weather forecaster flagged up serious heat from 10 Aug.

26 and very, very humid here. Hardly slept last night 😪

Everywhere is bone dry, dusty. Horrible.

It's been forecast beautiful weather here all day for the past 4 days but has rained all day for the past 4 days

We had heavy rain in Manc land this morning. Run offs everywhere and standing water on the motorway. Dried up now though and humid with a warm wind.

Why isn’t it officially a drought (Suffolk) yet? I feel really anxious about the low rainfall this year but is this just my perception or is it reality?

Totaly agree - when is this classed as a drought?!

Anyone have any idea when the humidity will drop?

We’ve had quite a lot of rain in the east midlands

DD's asthma has been very bad the past few days and I've just realised that's another joy of humidity

I feel dread, the lack of water is so anxiety inducing.

Thank you as ever Bad Kitten for the sane, informative threads x

I don't know when it gets classed as a drought. Water situation reports are www.gov.uk/government/publications/water-situation-national-monthly-reports-for-england-2022 but they date back to Junes situation and the situation has become notably worse through July. I thought perhaps it was that reservoirs were maintaining their levels, but a quick scout around various water company pages suggests that might not be the case.

It would be good to know!

The environment agency says there isn’t one single definition of drought. Helpful!

I mean maybe it’s not a helpful term.

Thank you for the new thread @OhYouBadBadKitten

For everyone in the areas affected by dry weather, please please leave out water for wildlife - it’s a real life saver.

Water for wildlife is a lifesaver

Just heard on the news that users of water in Kent and Essex will have a hosepipe ban from 12/8. I wonder when the others will follow. Thames water has just said they are looking at water usage and will more than likely being in a ban.

Last night and this morning I've had spotting of rain (Bucks) but nothing significant so am looking at buying some more buckets to pop in the shower to collect the run off whilst waiting for it to run hot.

It should feel fresher from tomorrow for a few days until we have a renewed heat build up.Generally drying up where it has been currently raining, and remaining dry where it has been dry. Some very warm to hot weather to come next week.

The dry soil will exacerbate the temperatures in the South, less energy goes into evaporating moisture and therefore more heats the air. It's a bit of a vicious circle in a way because then that further dries out the soil. Though round here, I can't imagine there is any water left in the soil to evaporate.

Please do keep continuing to take good care not to spark any accidental fires. Obviously no bbqs out in the open, don't drop ciggies and if you see litter that might spark a fire such as glass bottles, pick it up. With the undergrowth dying back due to lack of water, it might be an excellent time to run litter picks.

Thank you for all your ongoing efforts to keep us all updated OYBBK.

Thanks Kitten
i live on a high floor and this morning I was convinced I could see rain approaching.

nope!

We had a solid day of misty rain yesterday so everything got a good soaking. I planted some roses so had to dig about a foot down and was pleased to see the soil was damp. The common near us goes up without fail every August.

Gardening in 90% humidity (work) has me ending up with heat exhaustion. That's a first. Horrible.

Local forecasters also predicting heat and zero rain (Bucks). Fields that were grass are pale gold, but even that is disintegrating and they're becoming dusty. Very worrying.

They were interviewing water companies on the news. Apparently the drying out ground has caused more water leaks as it puts stress on the pipes

I wish they'd crack on with the hosepipe ban

just walking to the park I can see how many people are watering lawns. They'll leave it too late, grr.

colouring I hope you're okay, rest up.

If it was only me, I’d be moving to the north east. I live in the SE and wish I didn’t! But we have many family commitments here, a complicated SEN YA and a DH who wouldn’t move. So here we stay.

I envy all those who post about the rain and lower temperatures they are experiencing. A relief, when we in the SE just have endless summer which started in the spring

That sounds really horrid @colouringindoors, take good care.

We’re def considering a move north in a few years when dc have finished school. This humid hot weather makes me feel panicky and generally awful. I love a nice cold grey day tbh!