We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

36 here in Cambs /Beds . Classroom report - 28 in mine, tolerable (just). 34 degrees in classrooms at the top of a tower block. Not tolerable.

25/26c here in north Scotland so can't imagine what some areas down south must be like.

We nearly always have clouds (near some pretty big hills) but it's an absolutely clear blue sky as far as the eye can see.

27 indoors here in Manchester, Met Office says 35 outside, I'm not going out to check.
At least there's a breeze.

28.5C in my clinic room, 31C in reception (they had the windows open), 32C in the room I was supposed to be working in (3 fridges kicking out heat plus 2 south facing windows).
Not sure what it is outside, forecast says 33C

here at 16:19. Chilterns. But my outdoor curtains on south facing house are doing a brilliant job keeping inside at same temp as 11am 😁

DS school sent him home early and they're closing tomorrow. I was thinking it was all of a drama...until I went out and OMG!! I have never known heat like this I had to get home and the car wouldn't start then it made weird noises all the way home and I eventually got back but was in full panic mode! Drank some Lucozade and loads better...that's what you need..Lucozade!!

Sky saying RAF Brize Norton has no flights due to the runway melting...

🥵🤯

Luton Airport closed.

Wow. According to met office outside temp will be hugher than my indoor (25) til 11pm!

My house is currently 28 downstairs and 29 upstairs. Still feels cool when walking in from outside though!

Went to pick up Ds2 up from school - I've never felt such dry heat in this part of the world (Sw england) it was burning- and we aren't in the hottest part of England.

34 in my house, having observed all MN roolz.

twitter.com/i/spaces/1rmxPgkDwQqJN

weather chat on twitter now

Driving home up the m11 my car thermometer did not dip below 40. This is from Duxford to Cambridge area. I'm sure we've hit 39 at least

Checking in on this thread, I've been on the other one mostly today in between bits and pieces in life. Looks like the UK record won't have been quite broken today, though the Welsh one was comprehensively broken by over 2c. Lots and lots of site records gone.

In some areas mid level cloud bought temperatures back down a couple of degrees or so for a time.

Tomorrow will be hotter for some.

Maximum temperatures today, including the record for Wales. It's very notable how widespread and how far north these very high temperatures spread.

I know, I'm in Teesside and I didn't really believe we'd be hitting 34c. That has to be a local record, surely? And the Met Office have us at 37c and the Google weather app has us at 39c. That's too damn hot. I'm not build for this.

Those higher temps are for tomorrow.

Found some answers to my question yesterday

www.theguardian.com/society/2022/jul/18/women-greater-risk-heatwaves-men-extreme-weather-study

We've just reached 35 here in SE which I will be the high. I've kept my living room below 26 all day with the use of 2 fans and keeping blinds and windows shut since 8am. Dog is bored but having to put up with it.

In in Cambridgeshire and my bedroom fan has a thermostat on it. The room has been kept dark all day and it’s showing 29c currently 🥵

The local military range is on fire again... it has been for 2 weeks now, it has been smouldering but now producing more smoke.

27 degrees indoors and I can't open the windows when outside temp drops if the wind blows the smoke my direction.

It hit 30 in the flat. It's now 28. It's been a hell of a day trying to keep one of them cool.

33 inside now. All windows and doors opened and loft hatch off. Boiling.

Yes I've been at 25 inside all day and it's suddenly gone up to 27. What's that about?! It's 28 outside so has cooled a bit .