We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

We're just not a country that is built for these extreme temperatures and don't have the available resources, namely air conditioning, to keep vulnerable people safe.

I was in Disneyland Paris when it hit 42c a few years back and that was only bearable because there were lots of cool places to get relief from the heat.

OYBK has been contributing a professional viewpoint on the weather on MN for at least 5 years!

Could you say more about the dangerous situation

I’m really interested

Thank you, you come across very knowledgeable and i was interested :)

Its a good question. On a personal level we can make those small changes that help collectively. The usual cycle if we can, make wise energy choices etc. It also needs to be an important election issue, but good luck with balancing that with the cost of living crisis etc.

From a practical coping with it view point, which honestly, might be where most of us end up at, I honestly think we need to be thinking about resilience. Try and create spaces in gardens and public spaces that can cope with both flash floods and drought! Think about what we can do to make where we live more comfortable. One very simple urban protection is to plant more trees. Trees are great at shading and bringing down street temperatures. Fake grass and concrete add to the urban heat effect.

We go away on 16/7 to Devon for a week. I am pleased it's going to be warm but also a bit concerned now about the animals we have, dd is dog and guinea-pig sitting and we have chickens as well plus ponies. Ponies being cared for by very experienced yard but still a worry for the little animals.

I agree, it’s worrying. I grew up in an area of Spain where 40+ degrees throughout summer was/is the norm. It is unbearable. We occasionally got 47/48 forecasted but they never really got that high. Well, this year it actually did reach those temperatures, with a town setting a record 52º one day. People were hiding in their houses and a few of those who ventured outside were fainting or showing severe dehydration afterwards. It was a horrible week.

Is this a weather scenario that would also see the rest of Europe with extreme temperatures (compared to normal) or is this a weather scenario which would see just our weather become very hot?

I'm just wondering what that means for Europe's energy use as a whole in keeping people cool and the knock on effect in energy demand and prices

I kind of feel like a bit of a mug recycling my stuff, buying second hand clothes and considering not going on a plane again though, when I see what is going on in other countries and what famous people etc are doing.

Particularly when those celebs make allegorical films imploring the great unwashed to 'Look Up' while they live it up on a private yacht with Jeff Bezos.

I feel like I might as well have and enjoy my week in Spain once a year!

It's been cold and rainy for months (north England).

I'll have to be brief for the moment as I'm supposed to be preparing for a meeting! But yes.

Extreme temperatures threaten energy security. Power stations struggle. In 2015 for example, Poland had to shut down some of its power plants because cooling water wasn't cool.

They threaten food security. Already we are seeing drought across parts of Europe creating pressure on an already struggling food situation. Our farmers are struggling with the low rainfall we have had so far.

They threaten health services. There is a little info here. www.ekhuft.nhs.uk/patients-and-visitors/news-centre/news-archive/news-archive-2017/heatwave-plan/ Given that the NHS is already crumbling under multiple issues this is not a good additional stressor.

They threaten rail and road infrastructure. We've already seen disruption to rail services this year in the south due to high temperatures stressing the rail infrastructure and it hasn't been that terribly hot yet.

They create an extreme wildfire risk. Many areas across the east are reaching the highest wildfire risks already.

Combine these issues for any length of time, especially given the extreme pressure that these services are already under and we have a dangerous situation.

Best get ready for my meeting, else all I'll be able to talk about is hot weather

Really interesting to read.

Where do you stand on home insulation? Like I mentioned, coming from Spain, people are really focused on keeping their homes cool in the summer. This might mean your house is freezing for a few months in winter, but we’d rather have an extra jumper on, than add carpets or thicker insulation to the walls and make the summers even worse. Resilience is a word my family really practised between December and February! It got chilly…

It’s a very different mindset to the UK, where due to the long winters people have always tried to keep their homes as warm as possible but I guess that backfires if you suddenly get a wave of extreme heat especially in the south.

I’ve always advocated for heating off and extra jumpers on when it’s cold, but how useful would shifting those priorities really be? At the end of the day, we need well-insulated homes to avoid wasting energy unnecessarily. But with the rising temps, would that prove counterproductive in the summer?

Unfortunately, yes, the hot airmass would be coming up from Africa and it is likely that under this scenario parts of France, including northern regions would see temperatures of over 40C. They have already had extreme record breaking temperatures during June.

back later :)

Oh, I've just found the Heatwave Plan for England 2022 pdf which details the various levels of severity of heatwaves, the various ways different agencies will be engaged, how the public will be informed and the 'on message' health advice. It includes from p34 the potential disruption and damage caused by a level 4 heatwave. I can't link because it's just a pdf but you can Google it with heatwave plan for England, or similar.

shhh, I'm not here. www.local.gov.uk/topics/severe-weather/hot-weather-information-councils#:~:text=Heatwave%20Plan%20for%20England%202022,2022%20in%20comparison%20to%202021.

Thanks OBBYK. So, worst possible scenario, fingers crossed we'll dodge this one, the timing couldn't be worse

We've got plenty in Wales we can sell you. If London and the South east paid a reasonable rates for it, it might go someway towards a sensible redistribution of wealth around the UK.

The Future We Choose is a good read on the "big picture".

Helps to put in perspective about personal small steps Vs national/international initiatives. Spoiler - need both, ASAP.

OP do you feel that humanity can actually stop this or is this part of the natural weather cycle over hundreds or even thousands of years? There is obviously evidence that human activity does affect climate (and may speed up the occurrence of some events) but do you think that even if we went carbon neutral warming or cooling would happen anyway? This is something I often wonder about when climate change is discussed. Obviously over thousands of years there have been some fairly major climate events

I can’t believe that some people can’t see the risk of 40 degree heat in a country that isn’t used to it.

My husband works in adult social care and the other week when it was approx 30 degrees they were having to ring those deemed to be at risk and do welfare checks.

From a selfish point of view, I work in a school - it’s hell when it’s 30 let alone 40 degrees.

I mean the people who relish in this heat.

@PrachtStück the opposite is true- a well insulated home stays warm in winter , cool in summer. Just check out the temperature in your garden shed on a very hot day- it will be much hotter than inside your home. Keep the curtains and windows shut on very hot days- windows open in evenings for ventilation, shut them again once the sun is shining on your windows.

As a farmer in the NW UK I have never experienced drought as early in the season as this year, crops are going to be massively reduced.

Appreciate the heads up as ever @OhYouBadBadKitten

Isn’t Carrie Johnson a passionate environmentalist who has worked on the climate change agenda? If she’s not able to influence change being at the heart of power, what hope do the rest of us have?

Ive been doing my but for 20 years and it’s made sfa difference. Can’t see us solving this one I’m afraid, better adapt to hotter weather. And be grateful to live in the U.K.