We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

I’m in east Anglia and haven’t seen proper rain in quite a while.
the grass is yellow and I’ve lost lots of plants.
I felt in a quandary about watering shrubs and perennials during a drought period.
I feel that If lots of garden plants die then the bees and insects will have nothing to feed on.
we know that won’t end well. They need garden habitats to thrive.

My weather app last night said 70pc chance of rain every hour this morning.
This morning it says dry - and yes , it's right . I didn't water the garden last night because I was hoping for rain and I'll have to tonight .

@ihatethecold plants are so expensive I'm not watering every day and have lost a couple, but I am going to have to give everything a good soaking tonight , and it's looking warm this week so will have to be nightly. As you say plants are essential for insects and I fill up a few water bowls on my way round as well. I'm still using the hose but being mindful, the dog has a paddling pool on hot days but that goes on a section of the garden. I don't have young kids so no kiddy paddling pool and the dog doesn't need much water in his.

i water what's in flower (not much now!) every other day. not loads, but keeping them alive, like you say for bees and insets (and birds). I'm on a water meter so never go crazy anyway. Me and kids are being very frugal with water use so I'm happy to continue for the moment. I also hsve a big rectangular shallow crate i put a few inches of water in and rotate standing pots in for 24 hrs, gives them a good soak, water lasts for multiple pots too.

Yeah my approach is keeping alive but not necessarily flourishing !

Monty was saying on Gardener's World that we are all going to have to get used to drier, hotter summers and wetter winters. He was in his Italian Gardens attire, wide brimmed hat, shirt with rolled up sleeves. He always looks tanned and healthy when it's hot. I on the other hand wilt like a dead wallflower!

Just spent a week camping in the Lake District. I'm pretty sure I could just drop by and wring my tent out and that would keep all your plants going a for a few more weeks.

We had a couple of periods of lovely heavy rain on holiday in Norfolk this weekend. Just got home to north London and it has been bone dry.

Lots of suggestions of rain here but not happening, usually the other way round where you look for nice weather and it’s in the weather app but disappears

I stand pots in water overnight too - I’ve got a couple of those big brightly coloured plastic flexi tubs and the pots take it in turns.
You can get a lot of pots very well-watered with very little water that way.
Doesn't help with ground plants though, of course.

Met Office app gave me an 80% chance of heavy rain this morning, I checked the radar, raised an eyebrow at where this rain was supposed to be coming from. Nothing, not even a drop.

Thank you @OhYouBadBadKitten will wait for your Autumn/Winter threads. Thanks for sharing all your knowledge with us, your threads are of immense value and much appreciated.

You're very welcome @Pricklesinperil , that's really very kind of you.

Im not sure I'm done with the high heat threads yet unfortunately. Keeping an eye on some potential developments next week.

No end in sight

I definitely don't recall such high humidity in recent years
obvs 2018 was a nightmare.

With winter though, I think the jet stream is more wiggly than in the past so we can get more unusual/severe weather depending on where the wiggles are. Recently I remember a whole run of repeated storms in the UK being blamed on this. And Texas snow storms.

February has been shorts on beach weather and beast from the east weather in different years. Climate change is making weather more variable.

Is it very humid in the south at the moment? I'm really struggling with the heat this past week. I know it's not that hot as dd and the dog are ok but I'm permanently boiling and overheating and WANT WINTER ! Eg waking up in night on fire ! Doesn't help that I'm menopausal but these aren't flushes, it's like having hot flushes that last for an hour

My weather app says 81% humidity. I feel awful, constantly. Had to leave the house yesterday and the air was so close, it felt like the sky was sitting on me. Ugh. I want rain!

It is really humid.

Im going to start a new thread as this one is getting close to the limit and we have a new potential heatwave to start talking about.

New thread www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4602839-we-need-to-talk-about-the-weather-and-the-potential-for-extreme-heat-part-2

Thank you OYBBK

Same here. South and humid. I've changed my bedding to lighter quilt and removed the mattress topper over the weekend because I was waking up too hot, but I managed to sleep fine over the hottest days.
This morning my thermometer/hygrometer in the bedroom said it was 70% humidity, last week it was in the 30s. Feels so much more uncomfortable. Temperature still hasn't really dropped under 22° indoors despite windows wide open and a fan on the windowsill.
I like a cold bedroom!

Haven't read the full thread, so apologies if it's already covered. But, anyone have ideas of what could be done as a break for wild fires?

I have a dead tree in my garden quite close to the house. I was waiting for it to revive but just realised it's a few metres of kindling so getting a taken down today (will replace with more drought resistant variety)

Is there anything else to be done in the short term?

No ideas, but just to let you know that people are now over on thread 2 re this - you’ll get more traffic there.

Do you have the link?

Thanks