We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

'Alarm. Alarm. There's an alarm going on. It's still going on and it's still an alarm.'

Best stock up on Solero’s then.

This is a good thread. Someone needs to be on this.

I am praying some of that heat reaches us in Scotland. Bring it on!

Italy is reporting drought conditions due to extreme heat. There was a report yesterday that London and the south east could run out of drinking water in the next four years. The tipping point has gone.

Yes it’s hard not to be happy with this news in Scotland where we have barely had spring yet, let alone summer. Been one of the worst years I can remember, so cold and rainy. But in general, I agree we need to talk about this.

Yes if it’s 40 down south me might even see 29 up north 😂.

Well the forecast here in 10 days is 21 degrees if we are lucky. I’ll believe it when I see it!

I meant 20 but 29 would be even better!

Thanks @OhYouBadBadKitten !

yup.

While these extreme temperatures are unlikely at present, the fact that they are being modeled and are thus possible in our climate does demonstrate that we are likely to see those temperatures at some point in the next few years.

I'm waiting for the usual 'its not that hot brigade'. I'm not quite sure what they would consider hot, especially given we do not have the infrastructure to cope with extreme heat.

I'd also note that we are in a period of very low rainfall for most of the UK. 3 month models suggest that this may well continue, with drought a very real possibility.

Hi @OhYouBadBadKitten
Thanks for the thread ✨️
Do you have any info on NE (Northumberland specifically) from 15th July?
Mums coming on holiday with us and has copd so has to be really careful in extreme heat/cold...☹️

Ah, you know when you are wishing for it to snow trying to ignore the fact that some poor homeless bastard would freeze to death, and then here I am in summer willing 30 degree summers and palm trees on Saltburn beach.

I begrudgingly accept this is a bad thing. Here for the grown up discussion and the cascade of shitty consequences of good weather.

@RudsyFarmer where was this report?

No idea how the nhs or schooldays will cope with this type of heat 🤔

It was due to be 25 and sunny where I live today, but was cloudy and around 20. Last time we were forecast 29 degrees, it poured with rain all weekend. We can't accurately predict weather 10 days in advance in this country.

I'm afraid I don't share the same sense of humour with those saying 'bring it on'. Sorry. I don't think people understand that those sort of temperatures would create a dangerous situation. This is not an overstatement. Those who follow me usually will know that I am not given to hyperbole. I always choose my words carefully when it comes to communicating weather risk.

As I have explained, this isn't a weather forecast, it is one possible solution coming out of the model runs. It is a scenario that has never been modeled in the UK before. It isn't a one off anomaly in the modelling either, it has been cropping up for a few days now. What this demonstrates is that, for the first time ever, these temperatures are now possible in the UK.

It might happen in ten days time, the probability currently remains low though. Weather forecasts are never about absolutes - they are always about the most likely scenario given the conditions. As everything in life, sometimes the less likely options happen.

@OhYouBadBadKitten out of interest, do you work in a meteorological capacity?

Oh wow I think the hottest I’ve experienced is 37 degrees

Aus has had higher temps but I don’t think I’ve been there at the time

So what should we do about it?

I guess the best way to describe me is as an extremely experienced amateur with links to professional forecasters. I can't say more than that in public.

Global warming. People thought it was hippy talk a few decades ago.

When will the world wake up to the reality and understand we need to change our behaviour?

i hope it doesnt get that warm it would be a nightmare we are in a flat above a shop and i swear to god the shop has the heating on all summer by the heat rising.

we are in the northwest and its been sunny this afternoon but tipping with rain and cold all morning!. Looking ahead on the weather we see predicted a high temp of 20 degrees over the next 2 weeks. So hopefully the 40 degree possibility doesnt come true!

Yes, this is what I want to know too! I feel totally helpless to be honest.