We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

Stone cottage peaked at 24C inside but now back down to 22C. Was a 10 degrees difference inside to outside at one point today.

I'm reduced to lying down, typing with one finger after melting into a puddle tonight, so no real updates other than : bloody hot tonight, followed by flaming hot tomorrow. Easing off from the west and peak temperatures for many will depend on how quickly the cold front advances.

Still 23 in my patch of the ne tonight. South facing house topped out at 33 with hotter to come tomorrow. Sympathy for those down south tonight.

Still 30⁰ outside here (we're an hour ahead) which does not bode well for cooling the house down overnight ☹. Sitting room (coolest room in the house, only one with a thermometer) is at 29⁰. I'm in (on) bed with wet towel and a fan. It's got to be at least 32 maybe 33⁰ in here. 🥵

Feel for you @LaChatte and all in France (Spain & Portugal too). Could you sleep downstairs?

Stone cottage peaked at 24C inside but now back down to 22C. Was a 10 degrees difference inside to outside at one point today.

When I got home from work to our stone semi, DH had the curtains and shutters closed on the SW side of the house. The patio in the SW back garden was 34, the adjacent dining room was 22!

I've started a specific thread 2 for the Specific red warning thread;
www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4592706-met-office-red-warning-for-extreme-heat-part-2tuesday

Hopefully this one will hold out til morning - fingers crossed - as it would be good to carry on the chat after these bonkers days with a postmortem on what went wrong and why and what can be done in the future, if people are up for that.

So tempted to lie out under a sheet outside tonight.

SE London. We did ok today considering it was above 37 in the garden. The living room only got up to 26 and that's with 4 of us in it. It's cooling down ok. Bedrooms in the loft are 28 and 29 though and not really going down
The one saving grace is the lack of humidity so at least we're not dripping in sweat.

In the end it wasn't the heat that kept me awake but a bloody mosquito that decided I was flavour of the month 🙄

Good Morrow fine people!

Or something like that. I see that active thunderstorms have moved into the far SW. This marks the boundary of change between the extreme heat and fresher, moister air. It will be fascinating to watch the transition.

It will be slow to move in though, only reaching, for example a stripe stretching from Bangor to the Isle of Wight by 4pmish and the London area around 8pm, Cambridge area by very approximately 10pm. Don't hold too fast to those timings.

There may be cloud moving in in advance of the front which would inhibit top temperatures, but in general, the forecasts from yesterday still stand.

Top temperature spots:Approx around Cambridgeshire, Lincolnshire areas would be my guess.

Replicating the forecast across the different weather threads. Hope no one minds.

I can vouch for its being Bloody Warm at 5 a.m. (when the cat needed to get in and the dog out, and I thought it might be cool enough to tidy up a bit).

I'm in France too and opened the windows about 1am when the inside and outside temps were the same. Not much sleep due to fire engines and next door's cockerel! Currently 26 here, but the forecast is cooler than yesterday. Thinking of al those who have been evacuated and all the pompiers fighting the awful fires.

Thunderstorm warning for tomorrow. www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-07-20

Thank goodness!

Thanks for replying to my earlier question, too bad kitten!

My DS is getting a train tomorrow from Sandy to Leeds. Bit worried about this journey...

Uk record provisionally broken,

I'm in South Devon, sky has gone quite dark, just a little bit of rain and thunder in the distance. I'm thinking of going out and doing a rain dance to encourage it

Reminder of NHS Advice for heat exhaustion and heat stroke.

Two weeks ago temperatures of 40c+ showed up in the models. Forecasters were utterly stunned. It showed for the first time ever, it was possible to reach this temperature. We thought that the probability was low and this was a warning bell of things to come.

Today, provisionally, before 1pm, Heathrow has recorded a temperature over 40c.

After today the conversation nationally must be re-energised: What we can do about climate change and now we can increase resilience to severe weather.

Forget that for the next few years, none of the prospective Tory PM's are interested.

@CaveMum If you're where I think you are...you'll appreciate this (scroll down to the tweet from Julia Feilden).

work rider cooling off

When I warned of potential impacts early in this thread, I wasn't exaggerating. Power cuts reported by Northern Power Grid.
www.northernpowergrid.com/power-cuts-map

38c in my patch of Teesside, now charging all the tech, braced to take one for the family and eat all the ice cream in the event of a power cut, maybe I should get a head start?

@FourTeaFallOut splendid idea. It will give you a one less thing to worry about if you do get one,

😁

Do you think we'll see a normal run of typical summer weather after this?