We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

The hottest day we ever had here was in the mid 70s

The hottest ever day in the UK was actually in 2019.

Not everyone on MN lives in the UK. I was talking about New Zealand.

@OhYouBadBadKitten - sorry, my comment about the hottest day being in the 1970s related to NZ, not the UK. We have had temps up to around 40 degrees in recent years, but the hottest day was when I was in high school, and I can still remember our teacher taking us out to sit under a tree for his lesson.

Your posts are very informative.

Tiggertum - yes, at the moment the GFS after next Wednesday is still showing quite high temperatures, sort of from the Midlands southwards. I hope that changes!

Understood onlythreenow

GFS and the UKV model (a high resolution model run by the met office) show temperatures in the high 30's, and even touching 40c over Monday/Tuesday For those coming the the thread late, this isn't a forecast, just the outcome of latest model runs. These are widespread temperatures shown, reaching up to Yorkshire, with the highest temperatures not in the SE.

As we get into Wednesday it gets cooler, but perhaps not cool enough for some, with temperatures at the moment, I think, somewhere in the region of the low to high 20s. Perhaps heating up again next weekend. More details on this I think as we go into the weekend.

I do wonder what will happen with schools of this comes to fruition. I suspect the government will be very reluctant to close schools even for 2 days given how politically sensitive it is. Plus you have people who will need to go into work whatever ( poor key workers again at a minimum).

But many schools are horrendous in the heat as old Victorian buildings, no aircon, small classrooms and not even fans in each room.

Yeah I’m not sure if they’d close the schools.

Last time we had the record breaking temperatures it was one day and the school holidays I remember (they’d just broken up) - we went to the cinema for the air con!

So temperatures like next week in term times are unprecedented.

The hot summer of 2003 was also August when the temperatures peaked.

I do wonder what will happen with schools of this comes to fruition. I suspect the government will be very reluctant to close schools even for 2 days given how politically sensitive it is. Plus you have people who will need to go into work whatever ( poor key workers again at a minimum)

Thank you mentioning key workers. I'm NHS and am working every day over the heatwave. There's been an Amber warning issued for our area. Dreading it as I suffer with heatstroke very easily 😫

The temp keeps climbing on my apps…
36 degrees in West Yorkshire on Tuesday.

I've got 31 predicted for Tues and am near the NE coast. I'm sleeping downstairs for that- my south facing bedroom will be unbearable.

DS2 is due to go to a theme park in yorkshire on monday and it is predicted to be 35. The other mothers thought I was crazy for questioning if it would go ahead.

Thank you OYBBK- your threads are always so useful and interesting.

Could anyone explain to me please why there is such a discrepancy between forcasters? I'm in the SW. The Met Office predict 'only' 24 degrees on Monday for my location. The BBC predict 31 degrees. That's quite a difference and has been forcast so for several days now.

You like me are in the west we're in Wales it's cooler and wetter because our prevailing winds are westerlies

Looking at Ventusky for Monday it's comfortable

Try again

justasking that is Sundays ICON chart, 12pm I think? The temp goes up by 16:00, but it's Mondays run you need to look at. Also try toggling a few other models. GFS has gone nuts for Monday/Tuesday. ECM is more of a middling run. Unfortunately many of the internet sites I've used have just died. So will continue when they are back up!

Met Office UKV.

That chart! 40 😱

I just can’t get over how far north the modelling is showing extremely high temps.

I’m intrigued by the 40 is it only one? I can just read it

Wonder where that hits, which town is there

I think the time has passed for modifying our behaviour. Yes, we have probably accelerated climate change, but there's not much we can do to either stop or reverse it. The planet will do what it does. It's the usual human arrogance to believe that we can control forces of nature that are so far out of our control it's not even funny.

2x 40 Cambridge/Newmarket and Wisbech/Fenland area.

I know. It's only one chart, but similar charts keep popping up. I still think the chance of 40c is low. But it's still there.

All I can say at present, is if things don't change, if the met office team (not the raw output from models as shown for example in the UKV chart) keep warning of the possibility of extreme temperatures then people must take heed. This isn't looking like 1976. At the moment this looks like a potentially unprecedented event. I hope this changes.

This thread started out as me talking about how models are showing it is now theoretically possible to reach 40c and linking that back to a warming climate. I didn't expect to be talking about how realistic 40c is so close to the event. But here we are.

Actually the higher 40 looks a bit closer to Peterborough area.

Sorry had eye surgery glaucoma plus cataract I'm Mr Magoo just now. Think this is Monday and Tuesday

Even if we don’t hit the fabled 40 it is going to be a deeply unpleasant 48- 72 hours.

my main hope now is that it at least passes through quickly

WAIL!