We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

It’s worse in a way the extremes have now been pushed into the working and school week. Although should limit people fleeing to the coasts and potentially getting stuck in dangerous traffic jams I guess.

also means still have to wait to find out exactly what level of temps! I was laughing this morning when I looked at the temp and saw it was 27/28 with 17 at night and thought phew but of a cooler day.

Also noticed how most people I know weren’t aware at all of the met office weather warning

I am getting concerned at how hot my flat may get. Last night, well 4am, it was 27 degrees. Without it being a lot cooler at night, the heat builds during the day and does not go.

warnings now extended into Tuesday. I don't anticipate at this point them being extended further. www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings

I doubt it will do much

People still Will holiday as much as they can, drive whenever they want etc

It takes a lot to drive consumer behaviour change

Just seen Mon and Tue temps! My dd with ASD is massively stressed about how she will manage at school.

Wondering what criteria are for a Red Heat warning - any idea OYBBK?

I don't think most employers are going to take much notice of the Amber warning sadly. Nothing from my kids massive secondary school, or the one I work in 🙄

I am definitely addicted to the weather forecast though! 😅

DS's sports day was cancelled for today because of the heat. Ironically today is probably the mildest we've had all week (SE London). But I'm glad they cancelled it. Though we did just get an email about his nursery leaving celebration set for Tuesday around noon time but I expect it to be cancelled as well, with the models coming through.

DH is a meteo enthusiast too, our house and garden are full of weather and temperature gadgets and he follows the models religiously and sets up the house. It does make coping with the heat somewhat easier.

She saved our Christmas 12 years ago! The only person forecasting the appalling weather, and due to her advice we brought forward the departure flight of our rather 'challenging' house guest at the time. She was on the last plane out of Heathrow before it was closed due to snow.

Looking at the GFS, it's looking like the this extreme heat will end overnight next Tuesday into Wednesday and Netweather thinks so too.

I'd forgotten about that. It feels like a long time ago!

In terms of any red warning, I honestly don't know. Wind and snow red warnings, often often issued just hours before the event, or even as the event starts. That is because there has to be a strong likelihood that the event would happen, or the met office can see the situation evolving in real time and need to issue an urgent warning. Often these events happen in a small area and sometimes the uncertainty is as much where to issue the red warning as well as whether to issue one.

But in this case, I have no insight. They are issued "when a heatwave is so severe and/or prolonged that its effects extend outside the health and social care system. At this level, illness and death may occur among the fit and healthy, and not just in high-risk groups.". I'm not convinced that we will reach the prolonged criteria. I don't know whether a 3 day extreme heat warning is sufficient for the severe criteria. Especially when the heat for Sunday looks less severe. I also don't know how far red warnings are issued in advance for severe heat as they are deemed a national emergency.

Getting employers to listen and take action over amber warnings is problematic. Met Office messaging needs to be backed up by government and local authority advice.

At the moment Sunday looks less hot than originally shown in various models. It looks as though the chance of reaching 40c threshold is small, but temperatures may well still be in the mid to high 30's over a very large part of England and Wales. This may still change.

To clarify, I conflated Sunday with looking cooler than perhaps originally shown in some models at the moment, with Monday and Tuesday, which could see temperatures mid to high 30s.

🤣🤣

My thoughts too.

Im in n.i and we are still waiting on this heatwave you all speak of.

I think I can shed a little more light into the Level 4 Heatwave emergency plan.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1074023/Heatwave_Plan_for_Engand_2022_May-2022-v2.pdf

We've linked to this a couple of times now. It says "The decision to issue a Level 4 alert at national level will be actioned after a cross-government
assessment is carried out and coordinated by the Civil Contingencies Secretariat"

So it isn't the case of the Met Office saying that the heat wave will be so severe that there should be a national emergency, then we jump to Level 4. This would be a multi-agency decision, with ultimately the Cabinet Office making that final decision on based on various factors how well the country could cope with the heat. Unfortunately of course once the Cabinet is involved, it becomes in part a political decision, much as the various covid alert levels were. I make no comment on this.

Given a Level 4 heatwave wasn't declared when a new UK record was created in Cambridge in 2019 and the current forecast is probably not exceeding those values, or not exceeding them greatly, we may well not have a Level 4 declared this time either.

Thanks Gloria
i've still got temps of 26, 27 showing for the rest of next week in London. My flat won't recover till we get a daytime temp of 20, so I was hoping for a much more dramatic change!

it's sunny here today, so despite the allegedly lower temp, it seems worse.

Sympathies - same here. Generally I find a few hot days in a row and the flat won't cool. It's completely changed my perspective on summer.

Thanks @OhYouBadBadKitten re level 4. I wasn't expecting it, more curious really. Things would have to be really bad heatwise to cause that much risk to life.

Despite my best efforts with windows curtains etc my indoor temp is now 25 which feels horrible.

I agree 25 is uncomfortable but I wish I had it!

you might find this thread useful, the heat tips aren't much help for really hot flats but if your current is 25 you might find it useful.

www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4575255-thread-for-people-in-sweat-box-flats

EmmaH, I wonder if it's a flat thing. It's now 27.3 indoors and 25.7 outdoors. All windows have been open for several hours yet indoors is still higher than outdoors. With windows on two sides of the flat, a through draft should be possible but I'm not getting it yet.

@ajandjjmum

!! What a Saviours 😂one of the best ways mumsent been helpful line's!!

I don’t think it’s a flat thing - I’m in a house and it’s 27.8 even downstairs. Agree this is the problem the buildings are now so hot. I’m hoping the cooler nights we have ( looks like 15/16 for two) might help before the heat builds again.

Today although technically cooler felt much worse with the sun. My DC are really starting ti struggle at school - old Victorian school with huge windows and only some with blinds.

I guess houses can be overinsulated too but you have more control and face more than one direction.

it's 33 in the bedroom sans air con but the main room is 28 with the portable air con unit going.

Yes that’s true about facing more than one direction in a house.

I’ve been dipping into various weather forums and it looks like the predictions have got even higher heat and for a bit longer. I really hope they are wrong

Some of the models back to showing 38 or 39 degrees for parts of the country.

GloriaSmud · Today 14:46

Looking at the GFS, it's looking like the this extreme heat will end overnight next Tuesday into Wednesday and Netweather thinks so too.

I remember the most recent mini heatwave we had, the temp dropped by 10 degrees overnight. We went to bed when it was stiflingly hot and woke up to lovely fresh and freezing cold in comparison!

I’m not sure a drop to cool temperatures is forecast atm unfortunately in the south. It drops but seems to have still quite high temps. Hopefully they will change and it will
properly drop!