We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

Balls - that's right over me!

This might take a little bit of explaining as it's not intuitive.

Each GEFS set of outputs consists of 30 different model runs,( plus the control run and the operational run) with different perturbations at the start of the run and as they go along. They form what is known as a probabilistic forecast - what is a probable outcome by having a lot of 'guesses' (that's not quite the right word)

If you use this link. www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?table=1
You can either click on your location, type it in, or put in your lat/long. Then press 'ok'.

A table of values should appear. Click on 2m. Temp as shown in the picture.
Scroll down to where you can see 2022-07-18 15z and 18z. Those are the ensemble members for 3pm and 6pm on Monday for that location.

In my example, I've chosen cambridge as it holds the highest UK temperature record of 38.7c in 2019. 28% of ensemble members at that location are record breaking this time round at 3pm on Monday.

Of course GEFS is only one model, there are many other models, and this is one set of model runs, but it gives you a flavour perhaps of what the chances are of breaking the UK record in your area are.

Our school is closing at lunch Mon and Tues unless things change . Now that is unheard of!

Closing at lunchtime is a great compromise for Monday. I wonder if it will be enough for Tuesday.

We're in SE so not in the potential 40 zone, although it is PE day for dd that morning !

I am so confused, is London not in the potential 40 zone? So many different forecasts.

Cambridge calling....have ordered 3 fans off Amazon thereby guaranteeing we'll be lucky to see 18 degrees here in Cambs.

@stillherenow where are you based that they're closing school early? Seriously we're right in the hot zone prediction here and all we've had is a snotty toned emailed from the school reminding us that the school uniform won't be relaxed. A lovely selection of man-made fibres it is too.

At the moment, and I hesitate to type this having seen the latest output, we may well not see 40c. Knowing where it would crop up is even harder than knowing if it will crop up.

But the latest GFS has award 40-41c to a huge stripe down the east from Yorkshire into London, away from coasts. Other models are a couple of degrees down, showing temperatures in the mid to high 30s.

Are there simply too many of us?
What can be done?

We passed overpopulation years ago and no one gave a stuff.

I thought London would start to react and numbers would balance out. Twenty years later, I realise I was a fool. Wish I had left when I had the chance.

I think 40 is a bit of a red herring in some ways.

39 would be hot enough to feel horrible and cause health and infrastructure issues. Particularly with the extremely hot nights

You are absolutely right Tiggertum. 39C is exceptional, never seen before here. 2c above body temperature and for those of you who are more comfortable in F, it is 102F.

Once we get above around 30c I notice on mn a big rise in people saying how uncomfortable they are. This is a lot more severe.

The met office are reiterating warnings about disruption to travel and energy supply.

Highest temp was 38.7C so we may surpass it

I'm on border Hampshire and Surrey. So in a hot zone but not THE hot zone

They've been wearing PE kit for last ten days anyway . Secondary.

I took a screenshot of my phone saying 37 in 2019 as my dd was away and I didn't think she'd believe me!

educationhub.blog.gov.uk/2022/07/14/advice-for-schools-and-other-education-settings-during-a-heatwave/

Amazingly helpful and clear schools advice.

Please note : dripping sarcasm.

Just following up on a question an earlier poster asked so apologies if I missed the answer. Why are the BBC and Met office forecasts so different? BBC is showing 35 for Cardiff for Monday and Met office has 28.

Our year 6 have been told to do shirt signing and goodbyes tomorrow just in case (breakup Tues)

I think i've either broken it, or my lat/long is wrong (even though it isn't) 🤔

I really hope this is right!🍦

Piggy really? I thought you were being deadly serious 🤭

Take bottles of iced water and a water pistol to every class

This talk of other countries managing is a red herring. In 2003 there was a European heat wave that impacted parts of the south of france etc. we were holidaying there at time towards the end of extreme temperatures. People were dying in high numbers (14,000). It hey it was mostly elderly and vulnerable, just like covid, so “let the bodies stack up” seems to be the response form some people here who think we should not raise concerns and just get on with it.

the estimated excess death toll across Europe in that summer was 72,000
hardly that other countries manage
here is the link
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heat_wave

I honestly don't know the answer to that I'm afraid. The met office weather map is also only showing max temperatures of 33-34c. This isn't in line with what forecasters are saying, not what the models are showing. So I don't know what's going on with it.

Those look like the 850hPa temperatures. You need to click on the 2m button.