We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

I think it's really worrying and it's just going to get worse and worse. I've lived in a hot country before and it's unbearable, I really don't want the UK to be like that! I like mild weather thank you.

It definitely isn't part of any natural cycle I'm afraid.

If we were to stop adding greenhouse gases to the climate right now, we would start to flatten the curve and the temperatures would plateau. The less we do, the worse it will be, the harder and longer it will take to reverse the situation.

errr, I've just seen the news. I'll be back lecturing tomorrow.

Mine appears to be well insulated thankfully
My dad commented the other day when it was warm that it was like walking into air conditioning
If it's 26c outside, it's usually 21c for me inside

I am recently back from Spain. On a day when it was 37 deg later that evening I was shivering, projectile vomiting and very ill. Heatstroke, potentially dangerous.

I am fit and healthy, imagine that in people less able to bounce back.

I got heat stroke, as a young healthy teenager, in Spain. A night of vomiting, shaking, sweating too. It was horrible. I can see how it could kill older and less healthy people. Especially as we are less well equipped to deal with extreme heat in this country. B

Thank you oybbk - been following your posts for years ! (My youngest is now 9) and always find the weather (and your input) fascinating.

please keep posting, so refreshing your get a real view on it - yes totally appreciate forecasting is not an exact science but info like this never makes the ‘real’ news usually and I find it really eye opening. I love following the debate and added info such as state of the farming / uk droughts - again never really reaches mainstream but so relevant.

Think I'll buy the air on unit I was looking at earlier then

If it isn't needed I'll return it

OP, showing the rainfall for one month, especially June, and claiming we are in a period of low rainfall is hardly helpful. If you want to be taken seriously, show a graph with the last 25 years instead.

I'm in the south of England and we had a moderately wet spring. The aquifers have a healthy amount of water in, at this point we are not facing water shortages.

Point to your moderately wet spring on here.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-actual-and-anomaly-maps

I'm sure when it gets to it there will be lots of advice broadcast, and you can always google, but for those who want a few tips now:

1. Shut windows during the day and keep curtains closed - sound wrong, but it works on the principal that it is hotter outside than in, so if you open window you are letting heat in.
2. Open windows wide at night (from very late evening) with a big open gap in your curtains for air flow, to cool down air indoors, and get up early to close them again, say about 6 am.
3. If you have to go out, wear loose clothing that covers you - think of Arabs in the desert in long robes. Good thing long dresses are in fashion. Bare skin in hot sun is not safe. Especially wear a sunhat, don't have a bare head.
4. Sit on the sofa with your bare feet in a washing-up bowl of cold water. Buy a washing-up bowl for this purpose if you don't have one.
5. Get a de-humidifier, even just some of those 'crystals' they sell for caravans and cupboards. Humidity makes it much more unbearable.
6. Get some electric fans, obviously, but also get a little hand-held fan for you handbag so you have it to use if you do go out.

If it gets really bad, sellotape tin foil on the outside of your windows to reflect the sun, as well as drawing curtains closed.

Stock up on a few 'oral re-hydration' sachets - any chemist and some big supermarkets have them. They taste like salty fruit squash. If you only drink water and don't get enough mineral salts into you (from savoury food), then your body gets unbalanced internally - the oral rehydration adds the salts.

It’ll still piss down for most of August

That comment was for @MintJulia

I hate the summer. This heat is going to be horrendous.

One more thing - keep sources of heat out of the house, so don't put your oven or grill on, and don't open your dishwasher door until it has all cooled down. If you wash up by hand, do this outside late in the evening if possible so you don't let hot steam loose into the house. Cook outdoors on a BBQ or camp stove, but only do it in the shade not in full sun. If you have to cook indoors, consider cooking late at night for things like potatoes or meats that you can have cold the next day.

You're welcome. I honestly don't know what the longer term outlook is obviously. The Met Office are saying it there is a greater chance than usual that the 3 months over the summer will be hotter than usual, but rainfall is most likely to be average. If we end up with the hot scenario, then it is quite possible that the rain would be in the form of thunderstorms and flash flooding. But that is in part conjecture from me.

I don't know why that ended up in italics, sorry.

These hot weather tips are great! I want to reiterate though, that at present, the probability of such extreme temperatures is still very low. But we don't need crazy extreme temperatures to make people feel unwell of course.

I live in a wettish rural area of the country and agree that overall it's been a dry spring.

The ground on the moors and trails is dry, the bogs are almost as dry as they ever get. In a wet spring/summer, the bogs stay wet!

Yes cold foods are great, there's a reason we consume more salads in the summer.

Also, although it seems to hated in MN, growing ivy up wall has been proven to insulate the homes by keeping them warm in winter and cooler in summer. English Heritage studied in depth and also found that it doesnt damage masonry.

If you can have awnings fixed to your windows, use them. Anti-UV treated glass or film to adhere to windows will also help keep rooms cool.

If you own your home, look into weather you can have wooden screening (slatted) or shutters attached to the outside of your windows. Sliding ones work well with British windows as opposed to the traditional French style.

If you have traditional Georgian style sash windows that slide open top and bottom, don't open the sash all one way but keep it open at top and bottom. This will allow warm air to be drawn put at the top and cool air to come in at the bottom.

Likewise, opening a window at the top of the stairs will also help to draw warm air out (chimney effect).

Try and make sure you generate cross breezes through rooms and the house when you have the windows open.

If you use rugs and lots of warm, thick furnishings in the winter, packing them away for the summer will help.

In the "olden days", people used to have summer curtains and winter curtains which they switched seasonally to help moderate indoor temperatures. This might be something we have to return to.

In very hot countries, they hang damp cloth up at windows. You can do this with a sheet. A bowl of water in front of a fan gives you a diy air conditioner.

Freeze ice packs or bottles of water and use them as cold water bottles at night. Make sure your bedding is as natural as can be - 100% cotton (or even linen if you can afford it).

Freezing half or 3/4 of a bottle of water at night will give you ice cold water for the following day. Great for lunch boxes, commuting, playing sports or carrying around.

If you won't drink oral rehydration sachets, then at least make use of sports drinks which are more isotonic than other squashes and will help replace salts lost through sweating.

Use a water mister to help keep you cool, wear a hat, keep hair tied up etc. You can by electronic neck fans now as well which are good for being on the go.

If you are someone with dozens of house plants, you can feel smug because these can help regulate indoor temperature.

Excuse typos, phone thinks it knows better than me 🙄

Hi OP, thank you for the thread.
I find it fascinating, but horrifying. The implications are horrendous. It's not about eating ice cream and enjoying sunshine, it's about having weather that will result in serious problems, including drought.
Still people aren't listening.

41? 41? Bloody hell. This would be a catastrophe. Oh my days.

I will believe it when I see it I was sat in my winter coat at sports day yesterday!

Can you help me understand what is happening in my area, South Cumbria please. We usually have a lovely couple of weeks in May. We had little rain, blustery winds, dull. Now little sun, rainy, still windy. Just no summer at all yet, unreliable from hour to hour and we are into July. I have sat outside about 3 times for 30 mins. Is it the Gulf stream changing?

I've just bought another fan, I already got one for the dog before the recent heatwave. Dd has one in her room and I remember being so hot last year that I heated the bath water with my body and I swore then I'd get a fan for each room. I'm on SE and last two summers it has reached 37 for several days in a row and been unbearable so I can well believe we could reach 40.

Plus I've read OPs other threads at different times and they've been spot on