We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

Yes, global warming.

Interestingly, there are no books related to this topic or STEM/STEAM in the Waterstones Young Adult section.

Equally, I don't see any large or local business campaigning hard and visibly to find solutions for global warming and raise awareness. They do this for other prominent social issues of course.

Over the last 2 years, there has been a big push in school libraries up and down the country to include more books in diversity and by diverse authors (I know as I campaign for this and donate books myself), now there needs to be a push to include books on educating children about global warming so that they can help tackle these issues. I will write to my dc's school and start a conversation about promoting content and events related to sustainability. Not just the usual eco ambassadors, there needs to be a concerted effort. Please consider doing the same at your dc schools or at your workplace.

We have just lost an elderly (but otherwise well) friend to heatstroke while they were on holiday in Spain.

I really hope it's not going to happen

word of warning on pp advice re tin foil on windows

sun reflecting off this could temporarily dazzle drivers and be dangerous

cardboard is an option.

@stillherenow where abouts are you, presumably not in the UK if the temperature is getting to 37 degrees for days in a row and you're heating bathwater with your body!!

😂 More people die of cold than heat. And I’ve lived with no air con in countries that regularly had the “extreme” temperatures you speak of. It’s not “dangerous” if you simply adopt basic hot weather adaptations. We are very lucky to be so far north in a wet country, surrounded by an ocean with our desalination plants, it’s the people living near the equator, in deserts and landlocked that are really suffering from climate change.

I'm not going to repeat myself. But desalination plants? We have one in the UK.

We can build more. The point is we have the technology. I was on Ascension Island, the entire water system is desalination by reverse osmosis. Sent by ship and built in 2 months, supplies entire island population. Admittedly very very small proof of concept. But these plants are super cheap and fast to build. We can solve any real water shortage in a year or two if applied to U.K. Certainly would cost less than what the pandemic did!

Can anyone offer any advice re my childrens bedrooms? South facing. Have black out blinds which attract the heat and make the room even hotter if I put them down, but if leave them up sun blazes in making it equally unbearable.

Have looked into window film however comes with warnings that if sun is on directly for a long period of time it can cause glass to crack so am I wary to risk it.

Their rooms really do get horrendously hot during summer 🙁 I’d really appreciate any tips!

We suck at dealing with extremes in the country. It’ll be just like when we grind to halt in four inches snow and Canada laughs at us, and ploughs back to work in metres of the stuff. It’s perfectly survivable. It’s not a trend you want to see though.

I thought that climate change meant we would freeze, because of disruption to the Gulf Stream? Not that I’m complaining- I’d rather we were the New Med, than the New Montreal, and it’s not in any way a good thing for the earth. But people do actually live in those places. And go to school and hospital and everything. It’s not actually an apocalypse (I don’t like it myself. But we don’t need this hysteria)

This thread might be useful for some posters

www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/4575255-thread-for-people-in-sweat-box-flats

I'm totally with you kitten .

I've followed climate change for 40 years and feel complete despair at the inability of humans to recognise the consequences, even on this thread you get idiotic remarks.

I'm mostly with James Lovelock when he says it's too late, you may as well turn up the heating and roar around in a sports car from now on.

Love your posts and have followed you for years on here under various names.

I don't do that btw, still try my hardest to convince everyone to stop driving huge cars at high speed, not to turn their tumble dryers on when it's sunny or put the heat on wearing just a t shirt but most people just don't give a hoot

I think such extremes have always been possible, not just theoretically. There's evidence of them but they were very rare (think e.g. Ice Age). What climate change has brought is the probability of them occurring being higher than ever. There are more extreme events than before and they are a lot less spaced than before. Extreme temperatures/hurricanes/droughts etc were possible before but not as likely as now. Earth is doomed and we're going to end up moving to another galaxy or just Elon and the filthy rich.

Thanks for the thread @OhYouBadBadKitten I saw these stories with much alarm. On a personal level I can't seem to cope with anything over 25 any more. But on a population and climate scale this, and the stats on global temperature increases already, are very, very concerning. I believe we are at a tipping point. No country is on target to meet emissions goals which were never going to stop less than a 2 degree rise this century. Some scientists believe we're looking at 5-6 degree increase by 2100 which would be utterly catatrophic for food production alone.

I'm afraid I don't share the same sense of humour with those saying 'bring it on'. Sorry. I don't think people understand that those sort of temperatures would create a dangerous situation. This is not an overstatement.

completely agree

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate-change/effects-of-climate-change

Good overview

4 degree increase bybend of century is very likely.

Among the foreseen consequences are:

• the inundation of coastal cities;
• increasing risks for food production potentially leading to higher malnutrition rates;
• many dry regions becoming dryer and wet regions wetter;
• unprecedented heat waves in many regions, especially in the tropics;
• substantially exacerbated water scarcity in many regions;
• increased frequency of high-intensity tropical cyclones;
• irreversible loss of biodiversity, including coral reef systems.

from www.greenfacts.org/en/impacts-global-warming/l-2/index.htm

Already, in parts of the Artic, new figures show annual average temperatures in the area are rising across the year by up to 2.7C a decade, with particularly high rises in the months of autumn of up to 4C a decade.

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/15/new-data-reveals-extraordinary-global-heating-in-the-arctic

More people die of cold than heat. And I’ve lived with no air con in countries that regularly had the “extreme” temperatures you speak of. It’s not “dangerous” if you simply adopt basic hot weather adaptations. We are very lucky to be so far north in a wet country, surrounded by an ocean with our desalination plants, it’s the people living near the equator, in deserts and landlocked that are really suffering from climate change.

Thank you - I was thinking the same thing. While it's not good that the temps are rising world wide some of these posts are a bit dramatic! Where I live it is hotter than the UK in summer, and we've had temps up to 40o and there haven't been people dying in the streets! The hottest day where I live was in the 1970s when I was at school, no air con then (and not everyone has it now) and we coped. You just use a bit of common sense. As for droughts - we have them more often than the UK, and once again, get through it.

I have fished out of the garage my dog and cat cool mats for putting on kitchen floor. Pop them in fridge overnight then very cool for them to lie on during day. I wash down with weak disinfectant then put in fridge overnight again. Also ice cubes in water bowls for them. Please don't forget your pets will be uncomfortable in extreme heat.

Chucking a recommendation in for M&S comfortably cool bedding if anyone is after new sheets/duvet cover

My cat obviously can't read I hope and he will not sleep on my bed, ever. The little furry weirdo also doesn't like heat
I put the M&S duvet on when I got it and he climbed on the bed and fell asleep. Changed the bedding, he refused to get on the bed. M&S duvet cover back on, cat asleep on bed again

So it definitely feels cold!

Definitely avoid alcohol and drink lots of water is my very basic advice that gets easily forgotten in hot weather. The one time I came close to heat stroke was in Spain 37° and even indoors in the shade I got unwell. Probably because I drank a single beer and no water!

OYBBK I have loved your stuff for years now ❤

I tried to convince BIL and SIL to put in central a/c when they remodeled their fixer upper, but failed.

We live in frightening times. In the USA the Supreme Court has just destroyed the EPA's tools for meeting our climate targets.

Try blackout curtains linings instead, I bought some from Dunelm. They easily attached to my existing curtains. Since putting them up last year I don't use the blackout blinds anymore. Blackout curtains science bit: a thin layer of air gets trapped in between the layers of the curtain. And it’s this thin layer of air that acts as a buffer between two different temperatures, namely, the indoor temperature and the outdoor temperature. The bottom line is that any curtains can make your house more energy efficient. Blackout curtains are more effective because of the extra layers involved. If you use them correctly, they could help to lower your heating and cooling bill by up to 24%. Hope this info helps

@BloodyHellKen yes last year it reached 37 and was mid 30s for a few days ! Year before it also reached 37, I took screenshots that year as dd was up north with her dad and didn't believe me! I remember last year particularly as I found it very difficult to cope - was it about this time last year ? I'm in the SE but outside London where jt will be worse

I'm thankful that my divorce saw me move from a house with a huge south facing kitchen diner and bifolds - now that was a furnace ! Current house is fairly cool in parts except in very extreme heat. Trend for bifolds is one many will regret next week I suspec!

@OhYouBadBadKitten when is the modelling for , next week seems to have climbing temps each time I look but nowhere near 40, or is it in a few weeks ?

@onlythreenow i don't think people are being overly dramatic at all. People are right to be very concerned by this actually. You may well have experienced hotter temperatures in your time but, the fact is, 41 is unheard of in the UK. Our infrastructure, housing and environment is not built to cope with this sort of heat. If it's 41 here, then how hot will it be where you are? We mustn't normalise this prospect because it's not normal.