We need to talk about the weather and the potential for extreme heat - RED WARNING issued

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

So we need to talk weather and climate.

You might have seen some lurid headlines about extreme temperatures in 10 days time. These are based on some of the ensemble members of the GFS model runs.

GFS is one weather model. It runs 4 times a day. Each run consists of several parallel versions running with slightly different starting conditions (perturbations).

For several days now some of these have been showing widespread temperatures of 41C. We've never seen temperatures modelled above 40C for the UK before. The UK record for the actual temperature is 38.7c .

A big big however though! Most of the ensemble members are showing temperatures rather lower than this - low to mid 30's c. so at the moment these extreme temperatures remain unlikely. Not impossible though.

From a climate point of view, we have, in my opinion reached a tipping point where such extremes are now theoretically possible in our local climate. This is extremely alarming. I know the world and our country are full of alarming issues, this is one of them.

I'll keep this thread updated over the next few days.

Thread title edited by MNHQ on OP's request

I think you’ve missed the point.

I live in the south of France. We've had 4 light showers since February where I am. It's a disaster. Villages all around us are having water brought in by trucks. During the day our water pressure drops dramatically in order to reduce consumption. We have buckets and bowls in every sink and in the bath to catch as much waste water as possible to flush the toilet with and water the few things still alive in the garden. I've never known it to be this bad. On top of that it's been around 35⁰ since beginning of May, rarely dropping below 25⁰ at night.

Don't look up.

If it’s tough here it’ll be harder elsewhere

Europe included but further south

Exactly. Where we lived its winter was hotter than any U.K. summer (still northern hemisphere), and summer was even hotter…think up to 52C. So I don’t disagree that global warming is overall bad, but the U.K. is very lucky being so far north that we will barely feel the effects compared to those closer to the equator and that is literally billions of people. There is no need for such alarmism on our behalf, only the majority who are far less fortunate than us, and no need for climate doomism either.

🤣

So while sun is hitting their window, hang a white bed sheet behind the blackout curtains to reflect the heat and close the black out curtains. When you get time, you can line the back of the curtains with white material for future. Also close the windows and curtains on all S facing rooms. On the north (shady) side of the house, crack lower floor windows and open 1st floor windows. This will draw in cooler air from shady side of house and funnel hot air up and out the upstairs windows. It will help whole house stay cool.
If you’re semi-detached or detached:For east facing, close windows and curtains in morning, open in afternoon (once sun has moved and it is in shade…at least 1m on side of house. For west facing, open windows and curtains in morning and close in afternoon when sun comes round.

I’m so sorry to hear that. Southern France can indeed get quite hot & relentless have spent many summers camping there and it’s also very dry until you get to the wetter/cooler foothills of the Pyrenees. Thank you for posting though as you are a clear example of how lucky we in the UK are in comparison to the rest of Europe and most other countries on top. I hope you get some rain soon and that your garden recovers.

@Doghairismyglitter you can buy shutters that fit inside the windows, they’re not cheap but a very aesthetically lovely permanent solution.

In very hot countries, they hang damp cloth up at windows. You can do this with a sheet. A bowl of water in front of a fan gives you a diy air conditioner.

This only works in hot and arid countries, it’s too humid to work in the U.K. It isn’t done in the hot and humid countries (have lived in both deserts and jungles). You really don’t want to add more moisture to the air when it’s already high humidity.

Thank you for this thread @OhYouBadBadKitten

i love following your threads, I find them interesting and insightful.

checked for next week, where I am in West Yorks it looks to be 26 degrees.
i would hate 41 degrees, I’ve not long been back from Turkey where the temp was 10 degrees hotter than usual for this time of year and it was hard to be in the sun at times.

this is getting very serious.

i don't think people are being overly dramatic at all. People are right to be very concerned by this actually. You may well have experienced hotter temperatures in your time but, the fact is, 41 is unheard of in the UK. Our infrastructure, housing and environment is not built to cope with this sort of heat. If it's 41 here, then how hot will it be where you are? We mustn't normalise this prospect because it's not normal.

I don't imagine it will be any hotter here than it usually is - it's winter at present so hard to tell. I didn't suggest we normalise the prospect of rising temperatures across the globe, merely pointing out that a temp of 40/41 can be dealt with by using a few common sense methods. As I said in my post, the hottest day we ever had where I live was in the 1970s. What makes you think we are any better set up to deal with heat than the UK is? A lot of people do have air con now, but many still don't - and we certainly didn't have it in the 1970s - and yet somehow we managed. There is no need for hysterics at a higher than normal temperature which might happen, and might not.

Oh right, hysterics 🙄

Except our energy prices are through the roof and Europe whipping through their stored energy to compensate for a heatwave will see higher prices rises again, higher knock on inflation, further economic and political instability to come.

It's not all about wet towels and shadeless gardens, but of course we'll see a rise in vulnerable people seeking medical help due to heat related exacerbations, good job the NHS is in tip top shape and not hobbled by a pandemic, staff shortages, and historic waiting lists and that local governments who are meant to mobilise in extreme weather aren't going bust, right?

So maybe add a little context to your condescension?

@stillherenow I assume the temp of 37 degrees was in your actual house? (which is pretty toasty!!) as the highest recorded temp in the UK was 32.2 degrees last year at Heathrow which isn't far from us.
I'm also in the SE, outside London and our temperature has never got higher than 31 ish.

I agree. We are absolutely not equipped for these temperatures and most people in the UK haven't grown up learning how to cope with very high temperatures and how to keep the house cool etc.

People still have to take the tube to work, crowded trains etc, function as normal somehow.

Personally what I could cope with at 30 I cannot now tolerate at 55 and I feel very unwell at 30+ degrees.

The highest ever UK temperature was recorded in Cambridge University Botanic Garden on 25 July 2019, when the mercury hit 38.7C, beating the previous record of 38.5C in Faversham, Kent, in August 2003.

www.theweek.co.uk/93046/what-is-the-highest-uk-temperature-on-record

@Doghairismyglitter Our bedroom faces due south and we are in the SE. Every summer it seems to get up to 30 degrees. I keep the bedroom windows and curtains closed all day and open them early evening.
I cannot stress enough how much of a massive difference doing this makes.

I'm not sure about black out blinds as we don't have them because I think they are the work of the devil but is there anyway you could put a sheet of white paper in between the blind and the glass?

A small tip from sb who's lived in more than one tropical country: ceiling fans (particularly over the bed) instead of air con., less electricity spent.

I grew up in a hot Mediterranean country but the temperatures they're experiencing now are definitely higher than usual and for longer and even people who normally cope well with the heat (I'm generally not one of them) are struggling. Even the sea temperature is 29-30 which is definitely higher than usual, not refreshing at all and scary in the context of climate change.

But I find 28-29 in the UK harder to deal with than 34-35 where I used to live: the humidity, the lack of air con, the building materials, environment, culture, nothing is designed for hot weather.

Also, it's generally not so hard to deal with a one or two day spike, but weeks of 30+ are the real problem. When the soil and the concerete soak up layers and layers of heat and when you can't cool the house down over night. Back in my home country they just had several weeks of 30+ and everyone was struggling.

In our house we use an elaborate system and scheduling of blinds, windows (we religiously monitor the inside/outside temperature and open or close the windows and blinds as needed), shades, UV films, reflecting foils, big sun umbrella serving as a shield etc every trick in the book, and it helps a lot but there comes a point when you can't keep the house from overheating without air con.

If I can't cool down the air I can at least try to cool down the body, so we use cooling towels, ice packs, handheld fans, cooling pet mats under bed sheets etc. I have a health condition that is significantly impacted by the heat and I'm bracing myself for next week.
That said, I'm also travelling to my home country in a couple of weeks where the weather will be even more extreme so this will be a good practice run for me to tweak my heat coping routine.

Oh right, hysterics
Except our energy prices are through the roof and Europe whipping through their stored energy to compensate for a heatwave will see higher prices rises again, higher knock on inflation, further economic and political instability to come.
It's not all about wet towels and shadeless gardens, but of course we'll see a rise in vulnerable people seeking medical help due to heat related exacerbations, good job the NHS is in tip top shape and not hobbled by a pandemic, staff shortages, and historic waiting lists and that local governments who are meant to mobilise in extreme weather aren't going bust, right?
So maybe add a little context to your condescension?

I'm sorry, but hysterics is the right word. We are talking about one or two days of extreme heat, not weeks and months! Do you seriously think that the UK is the only part of the world going through tough times at the moment? Why on earth is the NHS going to be so busy with people seeking help for a couple of days of hot weather??? My country is not set up for very cold weather, but if we do have snow or extreme frosts for any length of time we just get on with it - just as the UK will have to do with a couple of hot days.

Place marking. Partly because we may be able to be at the coast for 24hrs.

Southern Europe here. In mountains. The mountain streams that flow down all around us are completely dry this year.

We have both wooden shutters on windows, and pull out awnings over lower ones which cover our living room, kitchen/ diner and then the terrace patio outside. They all definitely help a huge amount.
Right now all the bedroom shutters I open first thing, then close by 9am so the day heat doesn’t warm rooms. As an example it was 39 outside ours at the weekend, but 24/25 in bedrooms.

We don’t have any air conditioning, I don’t think I would want or need tbh as the house insulation, awnings and shutters do a good enough job alone, and no monthly expenses . Plus I like the doors open for fresh air

Working with the cooler hours also helps. I have been outside gardening, groceries, stores 6-9am today. 9-11am isn’t too bad either but getting hot. Now it’s gone 11am I won’t try and do anything productive outside until after 6pm. Toddler eats, naps plays indoors, or under awning in shade 11am-4pm. The lake beach areas only have tourists in during peak daytime, all locals go down 5pm-8/9pm.

Schools are 7am-11.30am here, so everyone isn’t stuck in a hot classroom all afternoon

The climate change deniers make me mad. Do you seriously think it will be a couple of days of uncomfortable temperatures in the future?? Hysterics are what is needed in govt tbh to get any hope of dealing with this.

We will be looking at massive movement of people who literally have no water or food, wars, the lot. You carry on with your complete denial, it must be quite nice inside your head thinking it won't affect us here in the UK.

Back home almost everyone has these kind of blinds installed (made from PVC or wood) - they're fit tightly on the outside of the windows or doors and they do a complete blackout. I struggled to find anything like it here that wasn't an expensive custom made solution, and in the end gave up. The flimsy Venetian blind is not enough. You have to stop the sunlight and heat from ever hitting your window.

I think you do get used to hotter weather though if it’s a regular thing.
My cats for example aren’t bothered at all by the daily 35 degree heat, and will choose to lay outside in the heat rather than move 2m to indoors where it’s cooler.

(...) run out of drinking water (...)
The UK being an island, therefore surrounded by water, tells me if that happens it's one more sign of how things have been going downhill from a political point of view and nobody's heard of desalination.
Europe needs to prepare and think ahead!