Today's thunderstorm potential

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Plenty of potential for some rather juicy thunderstorms today. As always, just because they are forecast, it doesn't mean that everyone in an area will get one - its quite possible for one town to be hit badly and the other stay dry.

So we have a low pressure interacting with a trough, to destabilise the atmosphere. High values of CAPE (convective available potential energy) However, the risk is still fairly marginal at present.

I think the strongest risk is to the west of the IOW this afternoon, evening, then developing further north in the west as we go through the night, where storms could become severe. Potential for large hail, frequent lightning and flash flooding. A low potential at present for funnel clouds.

youarenot

I am approximately one stones throw from moorings way

Cross-posted with OYBBK.

Have you seen any action, OYBBK? Seems to me that you deserve a cracking good storm.

Although saying that it's starting to get a bit ominous looking now...

Thunder, lightning and heavy rain for last half n hr Winchester, disrupting bedtime a bit!

Thanks all, that's interesting to know. I have noticed that the storms seem to head towards me (I'm in a straight line up from Poole) and then veer off towards the SE.

Near boarders of Dorset/Hants/Wilts. It's gone quite dark and windy here, started raining about 15mins ago and just heard a far off rumble but no lightning yet.
DH and the lads have been busy harvesting, he's glad the rain held off long enough to get what they needed finished.
Our youngest dc(7 and 6yr old twins) are very excited as they broke up from school last week, and are staying up late hopefully watch a thunder storm!

woah :( the news about Coverack - severe flash flooding. I've know I've been working today, but how did I miss that?

Just seen the news about the flash flooding, awful.

It's muggy as hell here (Lancashire). Not checked anywhere apart from apple weather app but that seems to think rain through the night with 90% chance of storms tomorrow.

The Coverack situation looks awful - two people had to be airlifted. I wonder if it's the same kind of phenomenon as at Boscastle, with a large sudden rainfall at nearby higher elevation, but this time the ground was too dry to absorb the amount of rainfall.

Just seen Coverack

I think it's easy to forget the dangerous side of storms when we want the humidity to end and if like me you enjoy watching them.

The rain here is easing off a bit, though still some distant rumbles. The nearest online weather station is reporting 12 mm in the last 30 minutes.

Hoping for some storm action in Hertfordshire-met office predictions look promising.

I'm in Portsmouth too, also v close to Moorings Way!

Got excited then when I heard the first little rumble of thunder. Turned to disappointment when I realised it was my neighbour moving his bin.

It looks very like Boscastle, once I find some analysis of it, I'll post.

Some distant lightning for me, looks like an elevated storm.

no analysis yet, I've seen one rough estimate of 80mm in two hours. But that figure is the same as given for Boscastle, so I'm unsure as to whether they have just used that figure.

Has gone a little Dark in London.

Hoping for some storm action as its really sticky tonight.

Kitten any idea what the north east is looking like early evening tomorrow?

Another flash and crack of thunder. This storm seems to have slowed down quite a bit, I mean in terms of how fast it's travelling.

@treysanatomy - I think maybe we need to organise a MN meet up!

Wonders if we have the Meon class of sometime the 80/90's on here

Feckin cool and showery I think.

looks like its completely passed over IOW.. . was hoping for a biggun to clear away the muggyness..

DH and I are having our belated honeymoon next week and walking the SW coast path round Lands End for 5 days.... here's hoping the weather settles down before then!

Thanks!

I am sweaty betty on the Isle of Wight too. I haven't watered tonight due to the promise of rain, also sailing was cancelled due the threat of lightning, but nothing yet.