Badkittens just for fun winter weather guesscast thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Well, its that time of year where we start wondering about the winter to come. Will it be mild, wet, stormy or buckets of snow for all?

Of course it is impossible to tell, last years guesscast went quite well, but probably down to luck and vagueness of words

There is much talk of El Nino - and it is a very strong one at present. NOAA give a 95% probability of El Nino persisting through this winter. El Nino afftects temperatures in the Pacific – warming parts of it. This can have a knock on effect for us, though not always as great as people seem to think. However it cannot be ignored. It seems to be associated with cold winters, but not exclusively, mild and wet winters have also occurred during El Nino.

The North Atlantic Oscillation can also have an affect. It is hard to forecast this more than a couple of weeks in advance – there seem to be a wide spread of solutions in two weeks. To predict it we need to look at the temperatures in the Atlantic. The north Atlantic is colder than usual but the tropical Atlantic is warmer than usual. Interesting. The met office seem to think this will lead to a positive NOA led winter – which tends to be mild.
As a result of their positive NOA prediction the met office are suggesting that it is more likely to be a warmer than average Oct-Dec than a colder than average winter. here Somewhat amusingly though they also suggest that the Oct-Dec period is more likely to be wetter than average. Well, half way through Oct and looking forward, this forecast doesn’t seem to be playing out. Their next issue will be in about 10 days time .
Another factor to look at is towards the east – any long lasting cold air tends to come from that direction. And we have an impressive start to the season. Russia has had widespread snowfall, in fact, some are saying that it is a record start. If it doesn’t thaw (it is very early in the season!) this is good news for cold weather.

So where are we at? Conflicting ideas – it could be a very cold winter, there are indications to support that but equally many factors contradict those signals. We will just have to wait and see.

Next update, end of half term :)

From the end of next week we may all find that it feels more like winter :) it has been exceptionally mild.

YIPEEE!!!!

How cold OYBBK?

If gfs is to be believed, widespread frosts next Sunday with maxes of around 6c in the day time.

Im keeping an eye on Tuesday, potential for some gales, perhaps severe across parts of England.

Memo to self; buy some winter boots on Monday.

Does that include Jersey?

Late joiner here. Thanks for your input OYBBK.

It's about time we had frosts. The poor plants - they need a rest!

No sideorder - a warm sea will be protecting you.

I seem to have a very confused clematis in my garden and some early spring stuff starting to flower. Poor plants!

my new winter clothing might start to get some use then.

Could do with a decent pair of winter boots though.

Netweather hinting at some wintry stuff next weekend
(if the cold weather could hold off until Friday, when our heating should be fixed, that be grand!)

Another week of usual weather I expect, then I think it may get colder. It has to get colder soon! So week beginning 23rd Novemeber I think it may get a bit colder, scrape the car windows in the morning.

using loads of science there nannynick

It looks to be quite a step change next weekend from mild, windy (at times very) and wet to perhaps the potential of some white stuff in places, (agree with netweather) certainly much colder.

Yep, the science of sticking finger in the air to work out the wind direction

Wonder what will happen. Will we get any white stuff (probably not in West Surrey).

Ooo nanny you must be near me. I'm Sussex/Surrey border

just possibly some sleet next weekend.

Oh oybbk I'm going to Laplanduk Saturday in ascot. It's looking wet and cold does that sound about right?!

I feel robbed :(

early days sideorder :)

Spotty, may get a little sleety at times. Perhaps!

I'm choosing to listen to the bit at the start where it said 'The met office seem to think this will lead to a positive NOA led winter – which tends to be mild' and ignore all threats of the bastarding snow which causes major disruption and misery all round up here.

:)

Saturday looks less like sleet in the south, colder for sure and damp in places. Sleet is possible though and perhaps some snow over Welsh hills and the Pennines. Sunday morning could see the first widespread frost.

Before then we have some pretty wet and windy weather - especially tomorrow night which could affect much of Wales and England with gusts to 60mph in parts, perhaps more along the English channel.

I'll take colder - but please say "no snow at all this winter" and then I know it will stay away

I've got all my logs for logburner for the winter now. I like cold winters but as I'm on the coast it is usually quite mild.

I'm hoping for snow.

www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/uk-winter-201516-winter-weather-forecast/

I saw the site linked to above on FB earlier. It's got a snow prediction map (for next few days) on it somewhere.