Badkittens just for fun winter weather guesscast thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Well, its that time of year where we start wondering about the winter to come. Will it be mild, wet, stormy or buckets of snow for all?

Of course it is impossible to tell, last years guesscast went quite well, but probably down to luck and vagueness of words

There is much talk of El Nino - and it is a very strong one at present. NOAA give a 95% probability of El Nino persisting through this winter. El Nino afftects temperatures in the Pacific – warming parts of it. This can have a knock on effect for us, though not always as great as people seem to think. However it cannot be ignored. It seems to be associated with cold winters, but not exclusively, mild and wet winters have also occurred during El Nino.

The North Atlantic Oscillation can also have an affect. It is hard to forecast this more than a couple of weeks in advance – there seem to be a wide spread of solutions in two weeks. To predict it we need to look at the temperatures in the Atlantic. The north Atlantic is colder than usual but the tropical Atlantic is warmer than usual. Interesting. The met office seem to think this will lead to a positive NOA led winter – which tends to be mild.
As a result of their positive NOA prediction the met office are suggesting that it is more likely to be a warmer than average Oct-Dec than a colder than average winter. here Somewhat amusingly though they also suggest that the Oct-Dec period is more likely to be wetter than average. Well, half way through Oct and looking forward, this forecast doesn’t seem to be playing out. Their next issue will be in about 10 days time .
Another factor to look at is towards the east – any long lasting cold air tends to come from that direction. And we have an impressive start to the season. Russia has had widespread snowfall, in fact, some are saying that it is a record start. If it doesn’t thaw (it is very early in the season!) this is good news for cold weather.

So where are we at? Conflicting ideas – it could be a very cold winter, there are indications to support that but equally many factors contradict those signals. We will just have to wait and see.

Next update, end of half term :)

Meglet ~ The metoffice says they forecast the start of the cold about a week ahead in 09/10 and there's some more facts/history about it here, on Wikipedia.

Thanks oybbk. It makes the tabloids prediction of snow hell look even sillier. Basically we'll get a heads up a week in advance. Not two months as the express thinks it can predict .

Mulled (to keep warm) to OYBBK

Love this thread. I hate wet Autumn. Leaves should be crispy and frosty.... So far it looks positive for that this year and marks a return to Autumns of my childhood rather than my adulthood.

Chilly night here (Leicester) ~ down to 1.7C at 4.17am and only 2.3 atm. Brrrrr but a lovely sunrise this morning.

OYBBK, what would we do without you?

Don't mind snow at all, it's storms that upset us (Western Isles). Winter is so much crappier when the power goes off and you have a pathetic woodburner to heat the whole house, and it's dark and howling outside.

Parts of Northern Scotland has had quite a bit of snow over the weekend!

Actually down to 6oC here last night. And has been chilly all day

Oh gosh! gloria I've just realised I muddled you up with oybbk earlier. I'm sorry .

Ah 'tis fine, meglet (I think OYBBK's on holiday atm and I usually attempt to be some sort of 'deputy' when she's away.)

Over in Europe, there are snowy scenes in Finse (Norway's highest railway station) today.

Latest Christmas weather thoughts from TheWeatherOutlook.

Chatting to my daughters riding instructor and she says by this time of the year the horses are usually starting to lose condition and need hay etc. But half the yard is fat and the other half is still in amazing condition. She says she only sees that generally when winter is going to be a cold one. The grass is still decent.

Thought I'd post a screenshot of the sunrise occuring at Longyearbyen at the moment ~ pretty but chilly looking!

That's so pretty, thanks Deputy Gloriasmud

So is there any cold weather coming our way soon? It does seem to be a touch warmer, especially at night.

Thanks Gloria :)

it looks potentially ridiculously warm in the southern half of the uk for next week considering it will be early november. Perhaps temps in the mid to high teens

Facebook gave me memories for today and the photos on this day for the last two years were kids in sweaters only walking to childminder first thing and it was sunny.
Today, DD wore a skirt and ankle socks. So it's as warm this year in half term in London as the last two years.

That photo is beautiful.

SideOrderofChips we have ponies and they are the same. All as fat as butter but fluffy as fuck. One came up the field with a sick note and seems happy enough on box rest so maybe she knows what's coming.

I really don't want snow. I don't mind cold but not snow. Everything we do is a drive away and I hate being stuck in.

The met office are still going for wetter, warmer and stormier than average!

temp and rainfall November-January discussion.

They add a little caveat that it may turn cold at the end of the period.

I can't find much to contradict this view at present.

dd will be gutted if there is no snow. I am getting moaned at already. our city did not get anything significant last winter but mum's did so they got to play out in it in the dark, really late for a bit. more than many of their friends.

[santa]

Very mild Halloween here - out with kids just in their costumes, they were fine! And I had to leave my coat undone so can't be chilly!

The heating hasn't been on much this last few days!

After a foggy start, it has been rather nice here (Leicester) ~ we got up to 20.1C this afternoon. According to this, the UK's had its hottest November day, with 22.4C reached in mid-Wales.

I keep seeing people talking about high temperatures today, it's been freezing and foggy all day here in North Hampshire.

Yesterday was nice though.

A foggy start to the day, but it burned off by mid morning and was beautiful.

The fog has rolled over us again now. Its very eerie. DHs' journey to work in the morning will be interesting I think.

balthazar we drew the short stick up this way didn't we. We popped out when it was sunny, layered up but no coat for me, and I nearly died of cold on the way home. "Mummy, your lips are going blue!". Thanks for the reminder .

Another foggy start here and a chilly 5.6c at the moment.
Fog's causing some travel problems and there's a metoffice weather warning as well until 12.00.

Beautiful clear blue skies again here - outskirts of Brighton. The tortoises are awake and prowling around the garden enjoying the sunshine